In the past few weeks, industry analysts started to shave their S&P 500 earnings forecasts for this year and next year. Last Wednesday, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 75bps to 2.25%-2.50%. On Thursday, we learned that real GDP fell for a second quarter in a row marking a technical recession, though a mild one so far.
So, naturally, the stock market has been soaring since June 16. The S&P 500 is up 12.6% since then. It is down only 13.9% since its record high on January 3.
