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GDP IS HOT

Nov 3, 2025 2 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in Q3-2025 is 4.0% (saar) today, up from 3.9% on October 27 (chart). After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of Q3 real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. Of course, the model is based solely on data compiled

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 3-7

Nov 2, 2025 2 min read

A big week of economic releases is coming up, but the government won’t be reporting them because it is closed for business. Nevertheless, the week ahead will still be a big one for private-sector economic data. On balance, they are likely to show that the economy is expanding, consumers are spending, and employment is still growing, albeit at a slow pace. Consider the following: (1) Retail sales. The weekly

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Super-Duper Earnings

Nov 1, 2025 3 min read

S&P 500 earnings per share continue to beat expectations. Q3 earnings per share are on track to rise to a new record high. They are driving the S&P 500 stock price index to new record highs. The Magnificent-7 are leading the way higher on both fronts. As a result, the S&P 500 market-weight index continues to outperform the equal-weight index (chart). On Friday, Amazon

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: We Dissent

Oct 30, 2025 3 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our October 27, 2025 Morning Briefing. The Fed will almost certainly cut the FFR by 25bps on Wednesday. It will probably do it again on December 10. Apparently, Fed officials believe that the current 4.00% reading of the FFR is restrictive. That’s because they are collectively convinced that the long-run FFR is 3.00% (Fig. 12 below). This rate is also often

Ed Yardeni

Don't Feed The Animal Spirits

Oct 29, 2025 3 min read paid

In his press conference today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told financial market participants that today's 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) might not be followed by another one on December 10, when the FOMC votes on monetary policy again. "In the committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December," Powell said. "A further

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Inflation: 3.0% Is The New 2.0%

Oct 29, 2025 1 min read paid

The Fed Put is back. Given the likelihood of two more reductions in the federal funds rate before year-end, we’re reducing the odds of our bullish base-case Roaring 2020s scenario from 55% to 50% and raising the odds of an even more bullish stock market meltup from 25% to 30%. Indeed, the stock market jumped Friday in reaction to a cooler-than-expected inflation report, since it buoys the case for

Ed Yardeni

Reality Check

Oct 28, 2025 3 min read paid

Shares of Nokia soared by 23% today after the telecom equipment provider announced a billion-dollar partnership with artificial intelligence (AI) giant Nvidia. As part of the deal, Nvidia plans to invest $1 billion in Nokia in exchange for a 2.9% stake in the Finnish networking pioneer. Yardeni Research is seeking an investment from Nvidia. The funds will be used to build a data center in Dr Ed's

Ed Yardeni

Just Another AI (Mania?) Day

Oct 27, 2025 3 min read paid

Today was just another day in the stock market. The S&P 500 rose to another record high of 6875.16. Also closing at record highs were the Nasdaq, the DJIA, and the Russell 2000. Been there, done it! More record highs are likely when the Fed cuts the federal funds rate by 25bps on Wednesday. On Thursday, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to

Ed Yardeni

Economic Week Ahead: October 27-31

Oct 26, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead will see central banks commanding the spotlight as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England weigh in on both interest rates and the balance of economic risks. All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee, which is widely expected to deliver another 25bps rate cut on Wednesday. Given cooler-than-expected September CPI data, odds are rising that the Fed will

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Fly Us To The Moon

Oct 25, 2025 4 min read

The major stock market indexes rocketed to new record highs on Friday. We are raising the odds of a meltup from 25% to 30%, reducing the odds of our bullish base-case scenario from 55% to 50%, while leaving the bearish alternative scenario at 20%. In our base-case scenario, the S&P 500 stock price index rises to 7000 by the end of this year and 7700 by the end

Ed Yardeni

Economy Still Moving Forward

Oct 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The government shutdown continues to shut off the supply of many economic indicators. Tomorrow's CPI inflation rate for September is an exception. It is widely expected to remain stuck at 3.0% on a y/y basis. Based on a few conversations with friends about their businesses, we won't be surprised if the CPI is hotter than that, since President Donald Trump's tariffs may

Ed Yardeni

Bubble, Bubble, Toil & Trouble

Oct 22, 2025 4 min read paid

A few weeks ago, we observed a bubble in fears of a bubble. The fearmongers see an "everything bubble" that will soon burst. The expression "the bubble in everything" began gaining traction during the tenure of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (2014–2018), but it became widely associated with Jerome Powell's leadership and the monetary stimulus of the 2020–2021 pandemic era. In other

Ed Yardeni