Archive

DEEP DIVE: An Open Letter to Scott Bessent

Sep 15, 2025 7 min read paid

Dear Scott, I Wholeheartedly Agree Thank you for your public service as Secretary of the Treasury of the United States. I read your recent excellent article in The International Economy titled “The Fed’s New ‘Gain-of-Function’ Monetary Policy.” I agree with much of your criticism of the Fed. In addition, I believe that we share the same optimistic “Roaring 2020s” outlook for the US economy, and we both hope that

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 15 - 19

Sep 14, 2025 3 min read

Central banks take the spotlight this week as monetary policymakers from Washington to Tokyo cut to the chase on the balance of economic risks. Though the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting (Tue-Wed) is the main event, rate decisions by the Bank of Canada (Wed), the Bank of England (Thu), and the Bank of Japan (Fri) may reveal much about the degree to which US tariffs are disrupting economies around

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: The Oracle Of Austin

Sep 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Last Wednesday, Larry Ellison, the executive chairman and chief technology officer of Oracle, saw his net worth jump by $101 billion—the biggest one-day increase ever recorded on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index—to $382 billion. That happened after the company announced at its quarterly earnings conference that Google's Gemini AI models would become available on Oracle's cloud infrastructure. That sent the company's stock soaring

Ed Yardeni

25 Or 50, To Be Or Not To Be?

Sep 11, 2025 3 min read members

Following yesterday's cooler-than-expected PPI and today's as-expected CPI, expectations are that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with no dissenting votes among voting members. Following today's jump in last week's initial unemployment claims, meeting participants might consider a 50-basis-point cut, but we doubt that they will opt for that, as the majority would

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: The Good, The (Not So) Bad & The (Relatively) Ugly

Sep 10, 2025 1 min read paid

Our Roaring 2020s economic scenario and expectations for inflation and the labor market suggest that the Fed probably shouldn’t cut interest rates this year, although one cut might be warranted if upcoming inflation reports are more subdued than we expect. Yet a rate cut next week, after the FOMC meets Wednesday, is practically a foregone conclusion. Stimulating an economy that doesn’t need stimulation won’t create more workers

Ed Yardeni

Lots Of News

Sep 9, 2025 4 min read paid

There was a lot of news today that, on balance, didn't move the needle much in the financial markets, which are marking time until August's PPI and CPI reports are released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Let's review all the non-events today: (1) Gold & geopolitics. The nearby futures price of gold jumped to yet another record high of $3,707 per ounce this

Ed Yardeni

Earnings-Led Meltup?

Sep 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Apocalypse Now?

Sep 7, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump on Saturday amplified his promises to send National Guard troops and immigration agents to Chicago by posting a parody image from "Apocalypse Now" featuring a ball of flames as helicopters zoom over the nation's second-largest city. "I love the smell of deportations in the morning," Trump wrote on his social media site. "Chicago about to find out why it'

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 8 - 12

Sep 7, 2025 3 min read

On Tuesday at 10:00 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary benchmark revision for March 2025 employment data. This coincides with the release of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data for Q1-2025. The preliminary revision will estimate how much the monthly payroll report overstated (or understated) actual job growth between April 2024 and March 2025. The final benchmark revision will be

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Weekly Roundup - September 7th

Sep 7, 2025 3 min read

US Labor Market Is In BalanceAugust’s employment report was released this morning. It was weaker than expected. The month’s payrolls rose by just 22,000. June’s number was revised down by 27,000 to a decline of 13,000, while July’s number was revised up by 6,000 to 79,000. August’s big losers wereYardeni QuickTakesEd YardeniFlocking Doves Tomorrow?Stock prices rose again today as

Ed Yardeni

US Labor Market Is In Balance

Sep 5, 2025 3 min read

August's employment report was released this morning. It was weaker than expected. The month's payrolls rose by just 22,000. June's number was revised down by 27,000 to a decline of 13,000, while July's number was revised up by 6,000 to 79,000. August's big losers were goods producers (-25,000), professional & business services (-17,000,

Ed Yardeni

Flocking Doves Tomorrow?

Sep 4, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices rose again today as the 10-year bond yield fell. Investors anticipate that tomorrow's employment report for August will be weak. If so, then it is a sure bet that the FOMC's majority will turn dovish and will vote to cut the federal funds rate on September 17. Indeed, the odds are up to 99.4%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Stock investors must

Ed Yardeni