Archive

Waiting For The Chair To Speak

Aug 21, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock and bond prices have been marking time over the past couple of weeks, waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak tomorrow at 10 a.m. at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Meanwhile, today's batch of economic indicators supports our view that a Fed rate cut may not be warranted at the September 16-17 meeting of the FOMC if the other indicators released in the coming days also

Ed Yardeni

Gold & Other Commodities

Aug 20, 2025 3 min read paid

On balance, there aren't a lot of inflationary pressures in the commodity markets. Precious metals are on top of the leaderboard so far this year among the major commodity price gains (chart). Platinum, gold, and silver are ranked #1, #2, and #3. These shiny metals have become safe havens for many investors as a result of unsettling geopolitical crises in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Global trade

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Another Candidate For Fed Chair

Aug 20, 2025 1 min read paid

Dr Ed is sticking to his guns: He has contended since early last year that the US economy is too resilient and inflation is not close enough to 2.0% for Fed officials to muck around with easing. The widespread expectation that they will ease anyway in September is lifting stocks, and the actual event may cause a stock market meltup. The bond market’s reaction to unwarranted easing is

Ed Yardeni

Dueling Fed Mandates

Aug 19, 2025 4 min read paid

The Fed is required by law to keep inflation low and stable while also maintaining full employment. Achieving that dual mandate isn't always easy. Currently, the labor market is at full employment, but there are a few signs of weakening. Inflation was on track to fall to the Fed's 2.0% inflation target, but has been stuck around 3.0% recently. Some Fed officials believe that

Ed Yardeni

Foreign Investors Aren't Following The Dollar-Is-Bad Script

Aug 19, 2025 2 min read paid

By most accounts, almost everyone is bearish on the dollar. Nearly everyone is selling dollars to buy euros and gold, according to this widely held view. Global investors are rebalancing their equity portfolios out of US stocks into European stocks. The only problem with this narrative is that the monthly capital flows data collected by the Treasury International Capital System (TICS), which was updated on Friday, show that US foreign

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 18 - 22

Aug 17, 2025 3 min read

Wolf pack sightings aren’t uncommon in Grand Teton National Park. But this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may find himself fending off a large pack of them again as Federal Reserve officials gather for their annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The two-plus weeks since July's week employment surprise have given economic pessimists room to roam. Weaker-than-expected data, though, now confront hotter inflation sightings. Given the core

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Will Powell Be Hawkish, Dovish, Or Owlish In The Grand Tetons?

Aug 17, 2025 3 min read members

The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will focus on "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." The symposium is scheduled for August 21-23. It's an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, bringing together central bankers, policymakers, economists, and academics to discuss important economic issues and long-term policy challenges. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak

Ed Yardeni

Hot PPI Inflation & Cold Jobless Claims

Aug 14, 2025 2 min read paid

We've acknowledged that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased since the release of July's cold employment report and July's lukewarm CPI report so far this month. But we've also noted that more economic indicators will be released before the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. So we haven't abandoned our increasingly contrary view that "none-and-done in 2025&

Ed Yardeni

In Defense of the US Dollar

Aug 14, 2025 3 min read

Like the late comedian Rodney Dangerfield, the dollar has been getting "no respect" recently. A few officials of the Trump administration want to see a weaker dollar. America's adversaries would like to replace it as a key currency. Doomsayers predict a major dollar crisis in response to the huge US trade and federal government deficits. We remain constructive on the dollar for the following reasons: (1)

Ed Yardeni

What's In Style?

Aug 13, 2025 2 min read

Are SMidCaps coming back into fashion? They had a good day today. They outperformed the LargeCaps. The S&P 500 LargeCaps was up 0.3%, while the S&P 400 MidCaps and the S&P 600 SmallCaps rose 1.6% and 2.0% (chart). The Russell 2000 SmallCaps rose 2.0% as well. That led lots of market commentators to declare after the close that the SMidCaps

Ed Yardeni

Will Trump's Tariffs Get Tariffried By The Courts?

Aug 13, 2025 3 min read paid

The Trump administration is becoming increasingly concerned that the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, D.C., might soon rule that President Donald Trump lacks the legal authority to impose tariffs as he has been doing. That's our takeaway from a letter dated August 11 sent to the Clerk of the Court by two of the administration's top lawyers. It involves a

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes May Be Lurking On Easying Path

Aug 12, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped to new record highs following the release of July's CPI report today. The headline inflation rate held steady at 2.7%, while the core rate warmed a bit to 3.1%. Stock investors concluded that the Fed is even more likely to ease in September. Indeed, the CME FedWatch tool now shows that the odds of that happening are 94.

Ed Yardeni