Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 1)

US MARKETS CALL: Below The Calm Deep Blue Sea

Nov 14, 2026 6 min read paid

The major stock market indexes have gone nowhere since early August. On the surface, the seas have been calm. Underneath, plenty of turbulence has been occurring. Most of the volatility has been within sectors. In mid-September, we warned our readers to proceed with caution through the midterm elections. We expected and are now seeing buying opportunities. The S&P 500 closed at 7,561.67 on Friday. It

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Double Feature: The Spy Who Loved Me & To China With Love

Nov 12, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Jensen Versus The AI Trade Charlie Munger famously warned that there are three ways smart men can go broke: "Liquor, ladies, and leverage." NVIDIA co-founder and now former CEO Jensen Huang has run into trouble with the second of Munger's three L's. He won't go broke, but he is out of a good job. On Thursday, NVIDIA announced that Huang

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Time To Sound The All Clear Signal?

Nov 11, 2026 4 min read paid

I. From Caution to Buying Opportunities On September 15, we advised our readers to "Proceed With Caution." In that note, we pushed our year-end S&P 500 target of 8,400 to mid-2027 and lowered our 2026 target to 7,900. Our concern wasn't earnings. We maintained our 2027 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $425 but lowered our year-end forward

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: The Hire-No-Fire AI Economy

Nov 11, 2026 1 min read paid

The stock market reacted to the Democrats’ midterm election sweep in zig-zag fashion, with a crisis-aversion relief rally on Wednesday, a plunge on Thursday as the thought of AI data center roadblocks chilled investor optimism, and a bit of a recovery Friday as leveler heads prevailed (speed bumps yes, roadblocks no). … Also: The AI race faces three intensifying constraints—financial, political, and physical, the first two becoming acute.

Ed Yardeni

Fed Likely To Hike By 50bps In December

Nov 10, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Fed Has More Work To Do On October 26, we warned that the Fed could surprise markets with a 25bps rate hike at its October meeting. If the Fed chose to pass on doing so because the midterm elections were too close, we predicted a 50bps hike in December. Two days later, the FOMC voted 10-2 to hold the federal funds rate (FFR) at 3.75%-4.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Semiconductors Are Still Cyclical, But With A Bullish Long-Term Trend

Nov 9, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Semis Cycle Historically, the semiconductor industry has been notoriously cyclical. When chip demand outpaces supply, shortages boost prices; higher prices in turn slow demand. High prices boost profit margins and stimulate manufacturers to expand capacity. As demand moderates and new supply comes online, pricing power weakens, and earnings growth slows or even turns negative. In other words, the best cure for high chip prices is high chip prices. The

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog
Toby Hearst

US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology, Industrials & Utilities

Nov 8, 2026 4 min read paid

Last Thursday’s selloff in the stock market was an AI selloff. Investors dumped companies that build, wire, and power data centers, following the Democrats' sweep of Congress amid voter hostility toward new facilities. Stocks recovered some ground on Friday. October payrolls rose by 165,000, beating expectations of 65,000. Still, the S&P 500 ended the week down 2.7%, and Information Technology (MW) fell 6.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Air Coming Out Of AI Bubble

Nov 8, 2026 4 min read paid

The AI selloff went global last week. In the US, Democrats swept Congress in the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, surfing on a huge wave of voter hostility toward new data centers. On Thursday, investors dumped the AI trade worldwide, and Asia’s chipmakers took the brunt of the wipeout. Overseas earnings are still climbing, but valuations keep falling. We see the AI backlash as a speed bump, not

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 9-13

Nov 7, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 fell 2.7% last week, and the Nasdaq dropped 4.9%, both posting their fourth straight week of losses. Thursday’s 4.4% plunge in the S&P 500, its worst day since April 2025, came as investors weighed what the Democratic sweep of Congress means for the AI data center buildout. Both indexes rebounded Friday on strong jobs data, with the S&

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKETS CALL: S&P 500 Valuation Dives As Earnings Soar

Nov 7, 2026 5 min read

The stock market dived last week. Investors priced in political backlash against data centers after Democrats swept Congress. We anticipated buying opportunities after the midterm elections, and Thursday’s selloff delivered some. This remains an earnings-led bull market. Valuations are falling while earnings are soaring. We still view the AI backlash as another speed bump, not a roadblock. We are sticking with our 7,900 year-end target for

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

We Promised You Buying Opportunities After The Midterms

Nov 5, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Delayed Cold Shower Since September 15, we've counseled proceeding with caution in the stock market through the midterm elections. We anticipated buying opportunities after Tuesday's elections. Stocks rallied on Wednesday. But they plunged today. The S&P 500 fell 4.4%, its worst day since the April 2025 tariff shock (charts). The Nasdaq composite sank 5.5%, entering correction territory, while the Dow

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Gridlock Won & Markets Cheer

Nov 4, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Why Wall Street Is Cheering the Blue Sweep Ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections, we warned that a Democratic sweep of Congress could deliver a cold shower to Wall Street. It still could, but it didn't do so today. Democrats captured both chambers of Congress, flipping seven Republican-held Senate seats, including historic victories in Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina. Financial markets put a positive spin

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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