Paid The Dollar, Commodities, Bonds & Stocks Jul 5, 2022 1 min read paid What's weighing on the price of oil? We are watching the age-old adage at work: The best cure for high oil prices is high oil prices, which have depressed the global economy, as evidenced by the recent freefall in the price of copper and now the price of a barrel of crude oil. Another contributor to the weakness in oil prices and other commodity prices is the rip-roaring Ed Yardeni
Public US Remains Energy Independent Jul 5, 2022 2 min read In America we just celebrated our Independence Day. We should also celebrate that we've been energy independent since 2019. So why are gasoline prices so high? Consider the following: (1) The latest data show that during May, the US produced 19.6mbd of crude oil and petroleum products, while petroleum products supplied (a measure of total demand) was 19.7mbd. (2) US crude oil field production rose to Ed Yardeni
Public Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/5/22 Jul 5, 2022 1 min read The US economy is probably heading into a mild recession, recent indicators suggest. We now see real GDP contracting by 1.9% this year. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. The good news: The recession should be over next year and should slow the rate of inflation in H2-2022 Ed Yardeni
Public S&P 500 Gives Back 2021's Gain Jul 3, 2022 1 min read The S&P 500 fell 20.6% during H1-2022 (table below). That's on the edge of a bear market , which is defined as a 20%+ decline. Here are a few more quick takeaways: (1) Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, only Energy was up, and several industries were down by 30% or more: Energy (29.2), Utilities (-2.0), Consumer Staples (-6.8), Health Care Ed Yardeni
Paid The Economic Week Ahead 7/5/22 Jul 3, 2022 2 min read paid Last week’s economic calendar was chock full of recessionary indicators. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is tracking Q2’s real GDP at -2.0% currently, following Q1’s actual decline of -1.6%. It increasingly looks like the economy has entered a mild recession. However, this week’s indicators, with the focus almost entirely on consumers, aren't likely to be definitive on this matter: (1) Demand for Ed Yardeni
Public Inflation Is Global & Local Jul 1, 2022 2 min read Inflation has soared around the world over the past year. At first, last spring, it was attributed to “transitory” supply-chain problems that have turned out not to be transitory but persistent. Then all last year, excessively stimulative US fiscal policy fueled a demand boom that worsened the global supply shock caused by the pandemic. Early this year, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated energy and food inflation around the world. Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: US Economy & Financial Markets - From Wrong to Right Track? Jul 1, 2022 11 min read paid Strategy I: On the Right Track. What could go right or wrong over the rest of this year? The year is half over. It has been an annus horribilis so far. Will it continue to be so during the second half of the year? Or will we see a gradual improvement that might set the stage for an annus mirabilis in 2023? The only investment strategies that have worked out Ed Yardeni
Public Mixed Readings in June’s M-PMI Report Jul 1, 2022 2 min read June’s national M-PMI was reported this morning, and it wasn’t as weak as suggested by the regional business surveys conducted by 5 of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. However, the new orders component of the national index was almost as weak as suggested by the comparable regional average index (charts below). Here are some quick takeaways from the national survey of manufacturing purchasing managers: (1) June’s Ed Yardeni
Public It's (Unofficially) a Recession! Jun 30, 2022 2 min read The economy continues to teeter on the edge of a recession. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows Q2's real GDP growth at -1.0% (saar). It was revised down from 0.3% following this morning's release of May's personal income and consumption data. The model shows real consumer spending up 1.7%, a downward revision from 2.7%. In addition, real Ed Yardeni
Paid European Consumers Are Very Depressed Jun 29, 2022 1 min read paid On June 23, Bloomberg reported: “Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has built a $10.5 billion bet against European companies, almost doubling its wager in the past week to its most bearish stance against the region’s stocks in two years.” It seems like a good strategy to short Europe over the near term, especially if tensions between Russia and Europe escalate. Ed Yardeni
Paid Will Covid Zero Be Followed by Higher Inflation? Jun 29, 2022 1 min read paid China's experience with Covid Zero raises the age-old question of whether the cure is worse than the disease. For global investors, the question is if and when China relaxes its Covid Zero restrictions will global inflation soar along with commodity prices? Ed Yardeni
Public Bears Are Waiting for Something to Break Jun 29, 2022 2 min read Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) remained under 1.0 during the June 28 week at 0.82 for the ninth consecutive week. It has been bouncing around 1.00 since late February. In other words, it hasn't worked as a short-term contrarian indicator given that the S&P 500 has been falling since it peaked on January 3. However, the BBR might have signaled at least Ed Yardeni