Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 121)

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/23/23

Jan 23, 2023 1 min read

Brace yourself for December’s Leading Economic Indicators and Coincident Economic Indicators coming out today. They are likely to trigger another recession alarm. But we still see greater odds of a soft landing (60%) than a hard one (40%). Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. What can the LEI

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 23-27

Jan 22, 2023 2 min read paid

The Federal Open Mouth Committee is giving us a break. Their blackout period started on Saturday. We won't hear from them again until February 1 at 2:30 p.m. That's when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a presser following the latest FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, corporate managements will have a lot to say during their current earnings reporting season. This week is packed with potentially

Ed Yardeni

And the Winner Is ...

Jan 21, 2023 1 min read

When comparing the performance of various stock market indexes, the financial press tends to focus on just a few including the S&P 500 index that is market-cap weighted rather than equal weighted and excludes dividends. The following performance derby table shows what a difference these two other factors can make. It sorts the percent changes in the various indexes shown since January 3, 2022 through Friday'

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Pessimistic Consensus

Jan 20, 2023 6 min read paid

It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days because the consensus seems to change so quickly. At the end of last year, there seemed to be widespread agreement that the first half of 2023 would continue to be bad for stocks as the Fed continues to raise interest rates and the market discounts a recession during H2-2023. The bear market in stocks was expected to

Ed Yardeni

Industry Analysts Trimming Earnings

Jan 19, 2023 1 min read

Industry analysts continue to trim their estimates for S&P 500 earnings for each of this year's four quarters (chart). They may continue to do so if company managements provide cautious earnings guidance during the current earnings reporting season. Nevertheless, as of the January 12 week, the analysts still expected that earnings will increase 4.0% this year compared to last year from $219.46 per share

Ed Yardeni

Surveys Say NY & Philly Manufacturing Weak

Jan 19, 2023 1 min read paid

Stock prices tanked yesterday following reports showing sharp declines in December's retail sales and industrial production. As a result, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) fell to -24.7 (chart). The 13-week change in the 10-year US Treasury yield (in basis points) is highly correlated with the CESI and it continued to drop yesterday. On Tuesday, January's NY Fed business survey was much weaker

Ed Yardeni

US Consumers Depress Stock Investors

Jan 18, 2023 2 min read paid

Bond prices rallied and stock prices fell on renewed worries about a consumer-led recession following the release this morning of December's retail sales and industrial production. Both declined last month. Yesterday, the NY Fed's regional business survey for January was also very weak. (We will review it tomorrow along with the Philly Fed's latest regional business survey.) Let's have a closer

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Falling

Jan 18, 2023 1 min read

Interest rates fell sharply today on news that December's PPI confirmed that inflation is falling rapidly. The PPI inflation rate plunged from almost 18.0% y/y in mid-2022 to 6.2% by the end of the year (chart). Both the goods and services components of the PPI are disinflating. The PPI includes indexes for personal consumption based on prices received by the providers of the goods

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/18/23

Jan 18, 2023 1 min read

Consensus economic views seem to be mostly pessimistic. Big bank CEOs are preparing for a mild recession. Americans are skittish about a downturn, most economists project a recession, and lots of investment strategists remain bearish. But not us: Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. We don’t foresee recessions

Ed Yardeni

Getting Technical

Jan 17, 2023 1 min read paid

Here is Joe Feshbach's latest trading call: "The market has rallied according to plan accompanied by improving breadth numbers. The put/call ratio has moved back to neutral (chart). I would’ve preferred more skepticism on the rally. So while the market should eventually get to the upper end of its trading range it could get a bit bumpy soon. The chart I alluded to last week

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, January 17-20

Jan 16, 2023 2 min read paid

We expect that more of the Fed's talking heads will be talking this week about monetary policy perhaps with a bit less agreement of what needs to be done next. They only have three days to do so before the FOMC blackout period begins. The Q4-2022 earnings reporting season continues this week. More important than the quarter's results will be managements' guidance for this

Ed Yardeni

Federal Net Interest Outlays: Time to Worry?

Jan 16, 2023 1 min read paid

The latest federal budget data were released last week. Over the past 12 months through December, the deficit was $1.4 trillion with outlays of $6.3 trillion and receipts of $4.9 trillion (chart). Among the fastest growing outlays is net interest paid by the federal government. It soared to a record $517.7 billion over the 12 months through December (chart).

Ed Yardeni

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