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Powell Presses The Pause Button

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read

The FOMC left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged yesterday at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely expected. At his presser yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed might pause cutting rates for a while. He mentioned five times that the Fed is in no hurry to resume the cutting. He said eight times that the Fed needs to see further progress in lowering inflation. Powell acknowledged that

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/29/25

Jan 29, 2025 1 min read paid

Anatomy Of The Bull Market (Will DeepSeek Sink It?) The current bull market has been driven mostly by valuation expansion; now valuation is historically high. We expect earnings growth to perpetuate the bull market this year; any more valuation expansion could leave the market vulnerable to a meltdown. Our year-end target for the S&P 500 is 7000, based on a solid rise in earnings with no further valuation

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Back On The Happy Trail

Jan 28, 2025 3 min read paid

Today, the US stock market quickly confirmed our view that DeepSeek is a positive for the proliferation of AI, which should boost productivity and economic growth, especially in the US. The Nasdaq added 2% as Nvidia rose 9%. Both regained much of Monday's losses from the DeepSeek mini panic. It was yet another buying opportunity in the current bull market, as we anticipated in Sunday's QT.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Stocks Stay Afloat in Deep Waters

Jan 27, 2025 3 min read paid

DeepSeek took a bite out of semiconductor, other tech, as well as nuclear power stocks today. Many of these AI plays dropped by double-digit percentage points, and Nvidia fell 17%. Other than the impact of the largest US stock nearly entering a bear market in one day, plus some collateral damage in other large stocks, the broader market held up just fine. The S&P 500 fell less than

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: January 27-31

Jan 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed full of important economic data releases, big tech earnings reports, and central bank meetings. Economic updates will include consumer sentiment, manufacturing, economic growth, and inflation. We're broadly expecting strong growth, including the first estimate of Q4 real GDP to come in around its historical average at 3.0% y/y (Tue), increasing from Q3's 2.7% (chart). Inflation should remain low,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Will DeepSeek Sink The Unsinkable Mag-7?

Jan 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The Q4-2024 earnings reporting season is going well so far. It started out two weeks ago with better-than-expected big bank earnings. As a result, industry analysts increased their consensus expected Q4 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 companies collectively from 8.2% y/y to 9.1% y/y (chart). We raised our expected earnings growth rate from 10.0% to 12.0%. The next round of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Time To Recalibrate Our Three Scenarios?

Jan 24, 2025 2 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, January 13, 2025. We regularly assess the subjective probabilities that we assign to our three scenarios: the Roaring 2020s (55%), the Meltup 1990s (25%), and Stagflationary 1970s (20%). The last scenario, with the lowest probability currently, is our what-could-go-wrong “bucket.” Our main concern since early 2022 was that geopolitical crises might cause oil prices to soar as occurred during

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Take Down These Interest Rates And Oil Prices Too!

Jan 23, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump invoked his inner President Ronald Reagan today in a virtual speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. But his asks amounted to a taller order than just "tear down this wall." During his address, Trump demanded lower interest rates (not just in the US, but globally), called on OPEC to lower oil prices, and urged that the Russia-Ukraine war must end as soon

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Sentiment Remains Remarkably Bearish, Which Is Bullish

Jan 22, 2025 2 min read

Stock price indexes are back at record highs. Yet the stock market's sentiment indicators have turned stubbornly bearish over the past couple of weeks. We noted this development a week ago and concluded that it might be a bullish signal from a contrarian perspective. We aren't sure why there are more bears and fewer bulls recently. Last week, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell from 4.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/22/25

Jan 22, 2025 1 min read paid

Expectations for more rate cuts this year than previously expected buoyed both bond and stock markets last week. The prior week was bad for both markets as rate-cut expectations diminished. But last Thursday’s comments by Fed Governor Waller that fueled the turnaround were wrong-headed, in our opinion. If inflation follows the course he expects down to 2.0%, the Fed’s dual mandate would be achieved so it wouldn’

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Foreigners Buying Lots Of US Dollars To Buy Lots Of US Stocks & Bonds

Jan 21, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market rose today, buoyed by the fact that President Donald Trump didn't raise tariffs on Day #1 of his second term as was widely expected. Instead, he will be raising them on Canada and Mexico on Day #13 (February 1). That's what he said Monday evening. Stocks also got a boost when Trump announced today that Softbank, OpenAI, and Oracle are forming a $100

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Momentum Is Hard To Stop

Jan 20, 2025 3 min read paid

The bond and stock markets were closed today for MLK Day. When they reopen tomorrow, we will all be able to assess their initial reactions to Trump 2.0 following today's Inauguration ceremony. The major stock market futures indexes were up all day. Bitcoin soared in the morning, but turned down in the afternoon. Gold and copper prices fell slightly. The dollar sold off after The Wall Street

Ed Yardeni