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ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 29 - October 3

Sep 28, 2025 3 min read

Monthly employment reports have been suspenseful enough in recent months, but the real drama surrounding September's hotly anticipated figures is whether they will even be released on Friday. They won't be if the government shuts down on October 1 amid partisan bickering. Assuming the data come out, we expect them to show that the economy remains more buoyant than the conventional wisdom acknowledges given how surprised

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Nothing To Fear But Overvaluation & A Shutdown

Sep 28, 2025 3 min read

The financial markets have become jittery lately due to concerns about high valuation multiples, particularly among AI stocks, and a potential government shutdown. President Donald Trump reportedly will meet with the top four congressional leaders at the White House on Monday as the threat of a government shutdown on October 1 looms. Meanwhile, investors are once again wondering whether the massive spending on AI infrastructure by the "hyperscalers"

Ed Yardeni

Message To The Fed: Repent, Oh Ye Of Little Faith

Sep 26, 2025 2 min read

The Fed just won't listen to us. Last year, we warned Fed officials not to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) because we had more confidence in the economy than they did. We also observed that inflation remained above their 2.0% inflation target. We predicted that the 10-year Treasury bond yield and mortgage rates would likely rise rather than fall if the Fed lowered the FFR. They

Ed Yardeni

Q3's Earnings Season Is Coming

Sep 24, 2025 2 min read

Before you know it, September will be over. It is likely to defy the month's reputation of being a bad one for stocks (chart). Instead, the S&P 500 rose to a new record high of 6693.75 on Monday, September 22. October has also experienced some painful stock market setbacks, although the month has often provided good buying opportunities following poor September performances. Q3's

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Is The Fed’s Policy Restrictive?

Sep 24, 2025 1 min read

The Fed’s 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate last week doesn’t change our S&P 500 price targets or our subjective probabilities of a meltup (25% odds) or correction (20%) by year-end. Today, Dr Ed explores the reactions to the rate cut in the markets for stocks, bonds, the dollar, and gold as well as the significant takeaways from the FOMC’s September 17 meeting. Notably,

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Irrational Exuberance Moment

Sep 23, 2025 2 min read

During a speech in Providence, Rhode Island today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked whether he and his colleagues give any weight to the impact of their monetary policies on financial markets. He responded: "We do look at overall financial conditions, and we ask ourselves whether our policies are affecting financial conditions in a way that is what we're trying to achieve.” Then he opined that "

Ed Yardeni

Investing In The World

Sep 22, 2025 3 min read

It's a big world with lots of investment opportunities. We continue to favor the United States, but it's hard to overweight the US when it already accounts for 64.7% of the market capitalization of the All Country World (ACW) MSCI (chart). That's up from a low of 42.0% in late 2009. We can also observe the outperformance of the US by tracking

Ed Yardeni
David Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 22 - 26

Sep 21, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead will offer timely clues about both the American consumer and inflation. The economic releases this week might also influence financial market expectations about another Fed rate cut as soon as the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The federal funds futures market was expecting three 25bps rate cuts over the next six months last week before Thursday's upbeat initial unemployment claims cut the

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Party Like It's 1999!?

Sep 20, 2025 3 min read

The DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all rose to record highs this past week. All were boosted by the Fed's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25bps on Wednesday. Is the stock market back on the road to the same irrational exuberance that inflated the Tech Bubble of 1999, which was followed by the Tech Wreck of the early 2000s? Will the

Ed Yardeni

Postpartum Impressions

Sep 18, 2025 3 min read

Please see Dr Ed's op-ed in today's Financial Times titled "Why it might be the time to repeal the Fed’s dual mandate: Should 3% be the US central bank's new inflation target?" As expected by everyone, the FOMC delivered a 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) yesterday. There was only one dissenter among the FOMC's voting members.

Ed Yardeni

Fed Cuts By 25 Basis Points, Ho-Hum

Sep 17, 2025 2 min read

Why didn't stock prices rise today? Why didn't the 10-year US Treasury bond yield fall below 4.00%? Why did the price of gold slip? The financial markets had clearly already fully discounted today's 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate. In addition, the FOMC's Dot Plot wasn't as dovish as some market participants might have expected. Seven of 19

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: An Open Letter to Scott Bessent

Sep 17, 2025 1 min read paid

A recent article by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent takes aim at the Fed for its use of unconventional monetary tools and its mission creep. Today, Dr Ed addresses the Treasury secretary in an open letter, detailing where they agree and diverge on the Fed’s role and what monetary and fiscal policies are needed to sustain the Roaring 2020s scenario that both support. While an original aim of the Fed

Ed Yardeni