Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 3)

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 22–26

Dec 21, 2025 3 min read

This looks to be a mercifully quiet holiday week that nonetheless offers a smattering of key data releases. Chief among them will be Q3's GDP and December's Consumer Confidence Index survey. Clearly, the economic fog caused by the government shutdown is following the markets into the new year. Though recent employment data have been illuminating—showing that the labor market may be a bit more robust

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Seeing Reindeer & Solid S&P 500 Earnings

Dec 21, 2025 3 min read paid

We believe the S&P 500 has been in a Santa Claus rally since it bottomed on November 20 at 6538 (chart). It is up 4.5% since then through Friday's close. Over the past 10 years, the average increase in the S&P 500 from the start of November through the end of the year has added 4.5 percentage points to its return. The

Ed Yardeni

Misleading CPI, Misleading Business Surveys, Reliable Claims

Dec 18, 2025 2 min read

Now that the government shutdown is over, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is releasing economic indicators again. However, the quality of the latest releases is an issue. Today's lower-than-expected November CPI inflation report boosted stock and bond prices after its release. But the gains faded as economists started to question the CPI numbers. Indeed, the release included a warning that the government shutdown might have distorted the

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 With & Without The Magnificent-7

Dec 18, 2025 4 min read paid

We are declaring "Mission Accomplished" on our 7000-year-end target for the S&P 500. The index rose to a record high of 6901 on December 11. That's close enough for us and might be the high for this year. We aren't ruling out a Santa Claus rally over the remainder of the year. However, that is unlikely to happen if the S&

Ed Yardeni
Joe Abbott

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Game Of Thrones: The Mag-7 & The Fed

Dec 17, 2025 1 min read paid

It has all the drama of “Game of Thrones”: The Magnificent-7 kingdoms, each surrounded by moats, rarely had threatened each other’s monopolies in the past. Now, with the advent of AI, they have been encroaching on each other’s previously sacrosanct fiefdoms, forcing one another to spend ever more to remain in the game. Amid the chaotic disruption, investors’ AI euphoria has given way to AI agita as confidence

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Remains On Growth Track

Dec 16, 2025 3 min read paid

The economy is growing despite anemic payroll employment gains. That can only happen if productivity growth accelerates and raises real wages enough to offset the weakness in employment. The question is whether productivity growth will continue to do so. It will in our Roaring 2020s scenario. The risk is that stronger real wages don't more than offset weaker employment, which would depress personal income and consumption. This is

Ed Yardeni

Keeping An Eye On The Price Of Crude Oil

Dec 15, 2025 3 min read paid

All eyes will be on tomorrow's US employment report for November. That will obviously be our focus too. However, we will also be monitoring the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil regularly tomorrow and in coming days. That's because it seems to be on the verge of slipping below $60 (chart). Why does that matter? From a technical perspective, it might signal a significant

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 15–19

Dec 14, 2025 3 min read

This week is loaded with long-delayed government data releases, including on employment and inflation, which will provide a reality check on the economy's performance in the final weeks of 2025. This week's earnings reports from FedEx, General Mills, Carnival, and Jabil could also be illuminating. Last week's Federal Open Market Committee event produced a third rate cut this year, three dissenting votes, and the

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: The Impressive S&P 493 Ready For Broadway In 2026

Dec 13, 2025 4 min read paid

The S&P 500's Magnificent-7 might be less magnificent in 2026 as their fierce competition in the AI race starts to erode the monopolies they have enjoyed in search (Google), software (Microsoft), retailing (Amazon), advertising (Meta), electric vehicles (Tesla), smartphones (Apple), and GPU chips (Nvidia). The beneficiaries of that competition are likely to be the S&P 500's Impressive 493. A week ago, we

Ed Yardeni

AI CALL: The TIME Curse & The Game of Thrones

Dec 11, 2025 3 min read paid

"The Architects of AI" are this year's TIME Person of the Year. We asked Google's Gemini, "Can you list when the front cover of TIME featuring Person of the Year has turned out to be a curse?" Gemini responded as follows: "While TIME Magazine maintains that "Person of the Year" is a measure of influence (for better or worse)

Ed Yardeni

Fed Is ‘Well Positioned’ To Do Nothing For A While

Dec 10, 2025 3 min read

As widely expected, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 bps today. It has lowered the FFR by 75bps since September of this year. Since the start of the current easing cycle in September 2024, this rate has declined by 175 bps to 3.50%-3.75%. In his prepared remarks at today’s press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell rightly observed the obvious: "The adjustments

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: 2026: Another Year Of Living Audaciously!

Dec 10, 2025 1 min read paid

The coming new year looks like another good one for stock investors. Dr Ed is adjusting his subjective odds of various stock market scenarios, including raising the odds of his base-case Roaring 2020s outlook to 60%. Associated assumptions for earnings and valuation levels produce an S&P 500 price target of 7700 by year-end 2026. Alternative scenarios include a bear case, triggered by a recession or recession fears (20%

Ed Yardeni

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