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WEEKLY WEBCAST: Trump & Bessent Versus Powell & The Bond Vigilantes

Jul 9, 2025 1 min read paid

President Trump is determined to lower the interest paid on government debt one way or the other. One way is replacing Fed Chair Powell with a Trump loyalist who tries to convince the rest of the FOMC that the federal funds rate must fall, the data be damned. Another involves replacing maturing long-term Treasury bonds with short-term Treasury bills until long-term bond yields fall enough to refinance advantageously. Such “Yield

Ed Yardeni

Seinfeld Kind Of Summer Day

Jul 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Nothing happened today in the financial markets. The prices of stocks, bonds, the dollar, and oil all were relatively flat. On the other hand, there was more Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT). But the markets watched it all with as much interest as watching reruns on TV. President Donald Trump huffed and puffed again. The financial markets' reaction was ho-hum. Trump today announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on

Ed Yardeni

Liberation Day II

Jul 7, 2025 3 min read paid

Liberation Day I occurred on Wednesday, April 2 after the stock market closed, when President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners. The immediate reaction was what we called "Annihilation Days" in the stock and bond markets until April 9, when Liberation Day I was postponed until July 9 (chart). Today, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs again on 14 countries. Their governments have until August

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 7-11

Jul 6, 2025 3 min read

There's not much on this week's economic calendar. The only big event was supposed to occur on Wednesday, July 9. That would have been 90 days after President Donald Trump postponed his April 2 reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners on April 9 for 90 days. Today, that deadline was postponed again, to August 1. This morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Slow-Mo Meltup Fueled By Less Uncertainty

Jul 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Bond Yield Rises, Ignoring Weak ADP Payrolls Report

Jul 2, 2025 3 min read

The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose yesterday and today on mostly upbeat employment indicators. Yesterday, the JOLTS report came in stronger than expected. In addition, initial unemployment claims edged down, according to yesterday's report. Today, the Challenger report showed a drop in layoffs. The bond market chose to tune out the uptick in continuing unemployment claims in yesterday's report, and it also ignored today's

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: ‘It’s Always Something’

Jul 2, 2025 1 min read paid

Though the stock market is back on record-high ground after a couple of big worries have dissipated, investors remain wary, sentiment readings show. Slowing economic activity has ascended to the top of their worry list. Today, Dr Ed examines how worrisome it is. True, some key recent economic indicators have come in weaker than expected. But that suggests a soft patch, nothing worse. The recent outperformance of four cyclical sectors

Ed Yardeni

Correction: On Fed Governors' Terms

Jul 1, 2025 1 min read

In previous QuickTakes, we wrote that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair expires on May 15, 2026 but that he could stay on as a Fed governor until his term in that position expires on January 31, 2028. However, we were incorrect that President Donald Trump would be limited to the other current Fed governors when appointing the next Fed chair. That's because Fed

Ed Yardeni

Pounding Powell = Pounding The Dollar

Jul 1, 2025 4 min read paid

There is method to President Donald Trump's madness regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been hammering Powell almost daily recently because doing so is very effectively hammering the foreign-exchange value of the dollar (chart). Trump wants a weaker dollar to boost US exports and depress US imports. He has said that he favored a weaker dollar many times in the past, but now he has found a

Ed Yardeni

'Summertime, And The Livin' Is Easy'

Jun 30, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market seems to be carefree. Investors likely figure that any signs of slower economic growth increase the odds that the Fed will ease. Plus, inflation remains remarkably subdued through May notwithstanding Trump's tariffs. June's CPI inflation rate is tracking around only 2.6% y/y according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model. The dollar's weakness is viewed as boosting

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: New Highs Suggest Stock Market May Be Back In Meltup Mode

Jun 29, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to a new record high on Friday, slightly exceeding its previous peak on February 19 by 0.5%. The bull market that started on October 12, 2022 is alive and well following the 18.9% correction from February 19 through April 8. During that period, the stock market sold off on Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) as well as concerns that China'

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 30-July 4

Jun 29, 2025 3 min read

It may be July 4th week in the US, but we don't expect many fireworks on the economic data front. Of course, surprises could come from events in the Middle East, as Israel, Iran, and the Trump administration figure out whether the ceasefire will hold or missiles will start flying again. Surprises could also come from Trump's trade negotiations. A bunch of deals are expected in

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni