Archive

Sell Bonds, Buy Gold?

Oct 21, 2024 3 min read

Yes, that has been our advice since mid-August. Our August 19, 2024 Morning Briefing was titled, "Get Ready To Short Bonds?" We wrote: "Bond investors may be expecting too many interest-rate cuts too soon if in fact August’s economic indicators rebound from July levels and the Fed pushes back against the markets’ current expectations for monetary policy. So we are expecting to see the 10-year Treasury

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Anatomy of a Meltup

Oct 20, 2024 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 21-25

Oct 20, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will provide updates on the overall economy, manufacturing, and housing. Last week's jobless claims (Thu) will also be important for gauging how significant bad weather and worker strikes impacted the labor market. We expect more upside surprises during the current earnings season for Q3. The Nasdaq is likely to rise to a new record high before the end of the month and is currently

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Why Aren't Consumers Happier?

Oct 19, 2024 6 min read

The Misery Index is the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate (measured as the yearly percent change in the CPI) (Fig. 4 below). It was 6.5% during September, well below its average since 1947 of 9.1% (Fig. 5 below). So misery is relatively low. On the other hand, the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which is inversely correlated with the Misery Index, was 68.9 during

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Economy Is Hot, Hot, Hot

Oct 17, 2024 3 min read

Today, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model raised Q3's real GDP growth rate from 3.2% to 3.4% (saar) following a roaring September retail sales report (chart). Real consumer spending was revised up from 3.3% to 3.6%! Jobless claims fell despite worker strikes and hurricanes. Manufacturing also held up well notwithstanding Boeing layoffs and bad weather. Today's data further confirm our

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Big Bank Earnings Are Rip Roaring

Oct 16, 2024 3 min read paid

The third year of the current bull market in stocks got off to a good start this week. It's likely that the Q3 earnings reporting season will be better than expected as suggested by the results reported yesterday and today by some of the major companies in the S&P 500 Financials sector. On Sunday, we wrote that industry analysts expected S&P 500 earnings to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/16/24

Oct 16, 2024 1 min read paid

As the bull market turns two, Dr. Ed fondly recollects the performance of the young raging bull. At times, the bull charged and at times stomped its hooves on the ground in reaction to the monetary policy, earnings expectations, and economic outlooks waved in front of it. Yet the bull trampled even our heady expectations this year, passing our year-end S&P 500 forecast ahead of schedule. At the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Geopolitical Hot Spots

Oct 15, 2024 3 min read paid

With the Fed in easing mode and US economic growth remaining resilient and even robust, we are still wondering what could possibly go wrong. We remain optimistic on the economic outlook and bullish on the outlook for stocks. We continue to monitor the geopolitical risks that might revive inflation and depress global growth. On Friday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that these risks are "treacherous and getting worse.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: The Widely Feared Phantom Recession Is Over

Oct 14, 2024 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our October 7, 2024 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. It was written after the release of September's blowout employment report on Friday, October 4. Pagliacci (Clowns, 1892) is an opera in a prologue and two acts with music and libretto by Ruggero Leoncavallo. The play tells the tragedy of a jealous husband and his wife in a commedia dell'arte theatre company. At

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 14-18

Oct 13, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will likely confirm that consumer spending continues to shine, while manufacturing production remains lackluster. Meanwhile, as earnings season kicks off with the S&P 500 at a record high and valuations relatively stretched, the onus will be on company managements to deliver better-than-expected earnings, which should be relatively easy since expectations are low. As earnings surprises turned increasingly negative during the summer, so too did

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Happy Second Birthday To The Young Bull!

Oct 13, 2024 2 min read

The S&P 500's latest bull market turned two-years old on Saturday. It started on October 12, 2022. Sentiment was extremely bearish back then (chart). There were widespread fears of a recession caused by the tightening of monetary policy. Those fears lingered through October 4 of this year, when a stronger-than-expected employment report once again confirmed that the young bull correctly discounted that inflation would fall while

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Powell Is Too Dovish

Oct 10, 2024 3 min read paid

The monetary policy hawks may be coming home to roost at the Fed's November 6-7 meeting. September's CPI was hotter-than-expected, thanks to sticky services inflation. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the other doves on the Federal Open Market Committee who worried about a weakening economy have less credibility since Friday's jobs report showed the unemployment rate fell further and payrolls reached a new

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein