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US Economy Still On Bullish Track

Aug 22, 2024 3 min read

Stock traders took some profits today. They were probably nervous that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be less dovish tomorrow than the markets are about the outlook for rate cuts beyond 25bps in September. We've been less dovish than the markets since mid-June because we've been more bullish on the economy and the labor market than the consensus. Today's economic releases showed the US

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Are Grocery Stores Price Gouging?

Aug 21, 2024 3 min read paid

Today, Target CEO Brian Cornell said that there's no room for price gouging in a super competitive business like retail. He was responding to accusations by Vice President Kamala Harris that grocers are inflating their prices. As the Democratic candidate for President, she proposed the first ever ban on "corporate price-gouging" in the food and grocery industry. She also pledged last Friday to come after "

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/21/24

Aug 21, 2024 1 min read paid

Last week saw unfounded US recession fears and global financial market jitters go poof as quickly as they arrived. Dr. Ed examines what the markets were overreacting to when they beat a hasty retreat and the subsequent developments that set investors straight. … Weather was the reason for much of the weakness in July’s economic indicators, suggesting that August’s data may surprise on the upside and that Fed officials

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Don't Sweat Tomorrow's Payroll Revisions

Aug 20, 2024 3 min read paid

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW) for the 12 months ended March 2024. These data are used to revise previous payroll employment reports. They come with a lag, but are generally accepted to be more accurate than the initial monthly releases, which were already revised twice. The initial 12-month revisions can be large, recently having swung by more than

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Reports of Dollar's Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated

Aug 19, 2024 3 min read paid

The strength of the US dollar has been a key feature of the post-pandemic bull market. Approaching Jackson Hole, the greenback has been falling. It is now up just 0.5% ytd versus 4.6% seven weeks ago (chart). Is this the start of a new weaker dollar regime? Unlikely. The DXY is still up 10% over the past three years, and it wouldn't surprise us if the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Bungee Jump

Aug 18, 2024 3 min read

Last week's economic data confirmed that consumers are still consuming, the labor market is fine, small business owners are more optimistic, and inflation is still moderating. On Friday, at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to reiterate that the economy is performing well and that inflation is getting closer to the Fed's 2.0% target. He is likely to support market expectations that

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: August 19-23

Aug 18, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is light on economic data. However, there will be lots of news coming out of Jackson Hole, Wyoming from Thursday through Saturday as many of the world's central bankers gather for their annual meeting near the Grand Teton mountain range. Most important will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday at 10:00 a.m. (EST). Many other central bankers from the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Record High Earnings Giving Stock Market A Lift

Aug 16, 2024 3 min read paid

There’s no sign of an imminent recession in the latest earnings reporting season. Joe notes that more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies have reported their earnings for Q2. Collectively, S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) rose 10.9% y/y during the quarter to a record high of $60.19 (Fig. 1 below and Fig. 2 below). Here’s more related happy

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Consumers Are Still Shopping, Not Dropping

Aug 15, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's data tsunami showed that the labor market remains in good shape and is fueling consumer spending. The latest data support our view that betting against consumers when jobs are expanding is a bad bet. In addition, cautious guidance by several consumer-related companies during the latest earnings reporting season might have been too cautious. Today on a call with analysts, Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon said,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

China Dragon's Breath Is Less Fiery

Aug 14, 2024 2 min read

China's economy is faltering. July data suggest the government will have to provide more stimulus to meet its 5% economic growth target for the year. Most striking is the small but unusual decline in bank loans during the month (chart). It suggests a lack of confidence among businesses and consumers, potentially leading to reduced investment and spending. China's real retail sales rose just 2.2% y/

Ed Yardeni

2% Inflation: Are We There Yet?

Aug 14, 2024 2 min read paid

On long car rides, the kids in the back seat ask their parents, “Are we there yet?” Investors have been asking the same question about the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target. The answer is we aren’t there yet, but we're close. At his Jackson Hole speech at the end of next week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to confirm that. The question is whether he

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/14/24

Aug 14, 2024 1 min read paid

Corporate earnings have never been higher, suggesting that employment should continue to grow as profitable companies expand their payrolls. Today, Ed and Eric put the prospect of a recession into perspective with their “Credit Crisis Cycle.” Ed notes that S&P 500 companies’ record-high forward earnings is a bullish indicator for the stock price index. The S&P 500 forward profit margin is near its record high and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein