Archive

Immaculate Disinflation!

Aug 13, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's July PPI was cooler than expected, rising just 0.1% m/m and 2.2% y/y. The markets responded by betting on a swifter Fed interest rate cutting cycle, sinking the 2-year Treasury yield to 3.956% and the 10-year yield to 3.856%. Stocks rallied in response to the data. The low inflation print supports our view that the US economy has left inflation

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Is Oil Price Anticipating an Imminent War Between Iran & Israel?

Aug 12, 2024 2 min read

The war in the Middle East may be about to widen. Consider the following: (1) The Israeli intelligence community reportedly believes that Iran has decided to directly target Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh. That decision was made after an internal debate between the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG) and the new Iranian president and his advisors. The IRG has been pushing for a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

S&P 500 EPS At Record High During Q2

Aug 12, 2024 3 min read paid

Now that the S&P 500 companies are more than 90% through the Q2 earnings reporting season, let's do a quick check up on how Corporate America is faring. In short, there's no sign of an imminent recession as S&P 500 earnings rose to a record high during Q2. Here's more happy news to serve as a tonic to the geopolitical

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: More Churning?

Aug 11, 2024 3 min read paid

We've been expecting the stock market to churn for a while. We didn't expect it would churn so much in just one week as it did last week. So now what? Our bet is probably more churning is ahead with lots of volatility through the presidential election.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 12-16

Aug 11, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with economic reports. In addition, more Fed talking heads are likely to opine on last week's financial markets volatility and the monetary policy outlook. As market prognosticators debate the speed and size of coming interest rate cuts, the most important indicators are likely to be those closely tied to the Fed's dual mandate. Here's what we're watching

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Stock Market Selloff: Blame the Sahm Rule, Carry Trades & Too Many Bulls

Aug 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Blaming the Sahm Rule, Carry Trades & Too Many Bulls. The stock markets’ adverse reaction to Friday’s jobs report apparently was to price in a hard landing and to expect a series of federal funds rate (FFR) cuts by the Fed, including a 50-basis-point cut in September. Helping to unnerve investors was that the increase in the unemployment rate might have triggered the Sahm Rule, implying that the jobless

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Tough Treasury Auctions Belie Renewed Recession Chatter

Aug 8, 2024 3 min read paid

US stock prices and bond yields rose today following the release of the latest weekly jobless claims report confirming our view that the labor market is still doing well. The S&P 500 jumped 2.3% to 5,319.31 and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 4.00%. The recent lift in the bond yield was exacerbated by the second straight day of weak Treasury auctions. Let&

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Claims Will Tell

Aug 7, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/7/24

Aug 7, 2024 1 min read paid

A weak July employment report does not a recession make. The financial markets reacted on Friday as though it does, but we believe that report was a weather-impacted anomaly and not representative of the strength of the US labor market. Eric & Ed make that case today, explaining what was going on behind the scenes to make Friday’s stock market unusually volatile, why we expect employment data to snap

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Remaining Zen About The Yen

Aug 6, 2024 3 min read paid

BREAKING NEWS: Deputy BOJ Governor Uchida said that the central bank won't raise interest rates when markets are unstable. His dovish remark gave a broad lift to risk-on appetite in Asia. We wrote the following before this news came out.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Is Japan's Carry-Trade Earthquake Over Yet?

Aug 5, 2024 3 min read

This morning, US stocks and bonds were quick to price in Japan's stock market carnage overnight. Tokyo's Nikkei stock price index fell more than 12%, its worst day since "Black Monday" in October 1987, as the yen surged to 142 against the dollar (chart). This time, the crash was in carry trades financed in Japan. In 1987, it was so-called portfolio insurance in the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Pushing Back Against the Diehard Hard-Landers

Aug 4, 2024 4 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein