Archive

DEEP DIVE: The Roaring 1990s vs The Roaring 2020s

Mar 1, 2024 8 min read paid

Since the start of the 2020s, we’ve been comparing the current decade mostly to the 1920s and the 1970s. However, the S&P 500’s 42.3% meltup since October 12, 2022 to a new record high on February 23 has us considering whether another period represents a possible analogous scenario, i.e., the second half of the 1990s. We see parallels between conditions then and now that

Ed Yardeni

Goldilocks Without The Bears

Feb 29, 2024 2 min read

Every now and then, the economy is widely described as being a "Goldilocks" economy. Like Goldilocks' preferred porridge, it is not too hot and not too cold, but just right and bullish for stocks. We often agreed with that assessment, but we also noted that three bears did show up at the end of this cautionary tale. Once again, the economy is just right for Professor Goldilocks,

Ed Yardeni

Just Ask Dr Ed!

Feb 29, 2024 1 min read

First, we thank you for your interest in our QuickTakes research service. Now, we would like to try something new. On an occasional basis, we will ask you to ask us about the issues that you would like us to write about. We get some of our best research ideas from our members. You can start now by responding in the comments section below. We may follow up directly in

Ed Yardeni

Too Many Happy Bulldogs?

Feb 28, 2024 2 min read

We have nothing to fear but nothing to fear. The Fed is done tightening. The economy is doing fine. Inflation is moderating. The stock market is hitting record highs. So what's wrong with this picture? Nothing other than it is the consensus view, and ours too. Today, there are lots of happy bulls, including us. We would be happier if there were fewer bulls. Last week, Investors Intelligence

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/28/24

Feb 28, 2024 1 min read paid

Many of this decade’s economic and financial market trends bear a striking resemblance to those of the 1990s. That was a decade in which a stock market meltup preceded a meltdown (in the early 2000s), so monitoring meltup indicators today is well worthwhile. Now, as then, stock market strength is translating to significant wealth effects that should keep the economy resilient and monetary policy restrictive for longer. Today, we

Ed Yardeni

50 Shades of Bright Colors

Feb 27, 2024 2 min read paid

The economic picture remains bright. The Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow model today. Q1's real GDP is tracking at a 3.2% annual rate, up from 2.9% on February 16. Real GDP was up 4.9% and 3.3% during Q3 and Q4 last year (chart). We also learned today that there are still plenty of jobs available in the labor market. The Consumer Confidence Index survey

Ed Yardeni

Why Is the Nikkei Soaring?

Feb 26, 2024 2 min read paid

Japan's Nikkei stock price index just rose to a new record high. It's been a long time coming given that the previous record high occurred on January 3, 1990 (chart). Perversely, the new high coincides with Japan falling into a recession during the second half of last year. If the economy is weak, why is the stock market so strong? A weak economy suggests that the

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bull Market Gets No Respect

Feb 25, 2024 2 min read paid

Like comedian Rodney Dangerfield, the S&P 500 bull market gets no respect. Dangerfield often bemoaned that he got no respect. His jokes included, "I went to a freak show and they let me in for nothing." The S&P 500 is up 42.3% since the start of the bull market on October 12, 2022, yet its detractors continue to observe that it has been

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 26 - March 1

Feb 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The economic week ahead is jampacked with important economic indicators. The ones for January–New Home Sales (Mon), Durable Goods (Tue), and Personal Income (Thu)–were probably weakened by the month's bad weather. The February indicators should show some rebound in economic activity. February's Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City Fed regional business surveys will be out this week. They should confirm the weather-related rebounds in economic

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Artificial Intelligence Isn't Intelligent

Feb 23, 2024 3 min read paid

I. Is AI Ready for Primetime? The Roaring 2020s started in the stock market on November 30, 2022. That’s when OpenAI launched ChatGPT. I signed up for the $20 per month version of this program that is driven by artificial intelligence (AI). It can write reports and carry on a conversation. I gave it a whirl to see if it might write our Morning Briefings or our shorter QuickTakes.

Ed Yardeni

Higher For Longer

Feb 22, 2024 2 min read paid

We've been in the higher-for-longer camp regarding the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) since the end of last year. That outlook was confirmed by the release of January's FOMC minutes yesterday and today's speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. The Fed wants to see more progress bringing inflation down and is in no rush to ease given the strength of the

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/21/24

Feb 21, 2024 1 min read paid

Today, we analyze the analysts, noting that they tend be influenced by stock market meltups—thus fueling the meltups—and during meltups tend to raise their long-term earnings growth rates unrealistically high. Nevertheless, we explain why we follow their forward earnings, revenues, and profit margin projections closely. We also give our projections for the S&P 500 companies’ operating earnings, revenues, profit margins, as well as the index’s

Ed Yardeni