Public The Economic Week Ahead: February 12-16 Feb 11, 2024 2 min read Powell & Co. would like to see more evidence that inflation is falling toward their 2.0% target. They should get more of it this week. January's headline and core CPI inflation rates (Tue) should be 0.2% and 0.3% m/m, and 3.0% and 3.8% y/y, according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model. We will be focusing on these inflation Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: Productivity Is Making A Roaring Comeback Feb 10, 2024 3 min read paid Our Roaring 2020s economic scenario is predicated on our assumption that chronic labor shortages, especially of skilled workers, will cause businesses to boost the productivity of the available labor force. Technological advances will enable the boost, and it should be a dramatic one. Accordingly, we expect a productivity growth boom during the current decade. It may well be that the boom started at the end of 2015, was interrupted by Ed Yardeni
Public Not-So-Narrow Bull Market Feb 8, 2024 1 min read Have the S&P 500’s eight largest-capitalization stocks, the so-called MegaCap-8, been eating all the jellybeans, starving the other 492 in the S&P 500 LargeCap index during the current bull market? No. While the eight heavyweights have been on a sugar high in this bull market, they’ve left plenty of sweets for the rest of the stock market. Since October 12, 2022, when the bull Ed Yardeni
Paid S&P 500 Closes In On 5000 Feb 7, 2024 1 min read paid The S&P 500 closed at a new record high today of 4994.63. This is the Rodney Dangerfield of bull markets: it's getting no respect. The naysayers say that it is too narrow to be a real bull market. Narrowness also makes it vulnerable to a reversal, according to them. However, they aren't giving the bull market due credit. It's true that Ed Yardeni
Paid Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/7/24 Feb 7, 2024 1 min read paid The pandemic distorted the economy in many ways, including derailing the productivity boom that we’d been expecting would characterize this decade—our Roaring 2020s scenario. That boom now may be back on track; productivity growth was well above the historical average during the past three quarters. If so, the ramifications for economic growth would be profound, as GDP growth is a function of labor force growth plus productivity growth. Ed Yardeni
Public MegaCap-8 Continue To Impress Feb 6, 2024 2 min read Through Friday’s close, the S&P 500 price index is up 4.0% ytd to a record high. The MegaCap-8 collectively has outperformed with a gain of 7.6%, also a record high (chart). Without the MegaCap-8 stocks, the S&P 500 would be up 2.5% ytd. The MegaCap-8 now accounts for a record-high 28.3% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization (chart) Ed Yardeni
Paid Powell On "60 Minutes" Feb 5, 2024 2 min read paid Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to make sure we all get the message he delivered at his presser last Wednesday. So he appeared in an interview on "60 Minutes" Sunday night. His simple message is that almost all the members of the FOMC expect to be cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) this year. They are happy with the progress that has been made in bringing inflation down Ed Yardeni
Paid Market Call: Meta's Universe Feb 4, 2024 3 min read paid Meta is leading the stock market to where it has never gone before, i.e., to new record highs. Its stock price rocketed 20.3% on Friday, adding $204.5 billion to its market value, the biggest one-day gain by any US company in history. Industry analysts scrambled to raise their earnings forecasts for the company following Thursday's after-the-close earnings call with management (chart). As a group, the Ed Yardeni
Public The Economic Week Ahead: February 4-9 Feb 4, 2024 2 min read Now that the latest meeting of the Federal Open Mouth Committee is over, we can expect lots of chatter from its members. They are likely to echo Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments in his presser last Wednesday. In essence, he said that the Fed is done raising the federal funds rate further, but is in no rush to lower it either. According to the 12-month federal funds rate Ed Yardeni
Paid Happy Groundhog Day! Feb 2, 2024 2 min read paid Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog, woke up this morning and did not see his shadow, calling for an early spring. In the 1979 comedy movie classic, "Being There," Chauncey Gardner, played by Peter Sellers, predicted: "Yes! There will be growth in the spring!" There has been growth in the winter too. Yesterday, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q1's growth was Ed Yardeni
Paid Market Dives As Powell Pushes Back Feb 1, 2024 2 min read paid As we expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on market expectations of a federal funds rate cut in March and more to come over the rest of the year. He was less dovish than the market expected. If he had been more dovish, he would have risked inflating a speculative asset bubble. Instead, stocks took a dive today in response to his press conference (chart). Stock prices were already Ed Yardeni
Paid Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/31/24 Jan 31, 2024 1 min read paid It doesn’t take a recession to bring down inflation to the Fed’s target! “Immaculate disinflation,” widely dismissed as a fairy tale, has come true. In fact, the current economic picture is enchanting, with GDP growth remaining robust, inflation moderating, unemployment remaining low, and consumer spending holding up even as pandemic-era saving depletes. The fairy dust that’s enabled this ideal economy: productivity growth, three quarters strong and counting. Ed Yardeni