Archive

Prepare For A Recession & Debt Crisis In 2024

Dec 26, 2023 2 min read paid

While almost everyone (except us) has been waiting for a recession and debt crisis in the United States, we've observed that this calamity has been unfolding in China since early 2023 and will probably continue and worsen in 2024. Unlike the Great Financial Crisis, when the US debt crisis went global, China's debt crisis should remain local. However, China's recession is weighing on global

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Charging Into 2024

Dec 25, 2023 2 min read paid

Merry, happy, joyful, and jolly are just some of the adjectives used to describe this time of year. We hope your holiday season has been merry, happy, joyful and jolly so far. It sure has been for stock investors. The fun started more than a year ago on October 12, 2022 when the bear market bottomed. It has been a powerful bull market since then. Consider the following: (1) Here

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: A Dozen Reasons To Remain Bullish In 2024

Dec 22, 2023 8 min read paid

The current issue of Barron’s includes the 2024 S&P 500 targets for six investment strategists including yours truly. Our target is the highest at 5400, based on projected S&P 500 earnings per share of $250 next year. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson has the lowest numbers at 4500 for the index’s price target and $229 for earnings per share. In last year’s survey

Ed Yardeni

Roaring Stock Market

Dec 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market came roaring back today led by the stock prices of companies that are benefitting from the Roaring 2020s. Strong results and guidance from Micron Technology boosted shares 9% today, while lifting other chip and semiconductor equipment stocks (chart). Micron is the largest US memory chip maker. Its chips go into a wide range of products. The rally since the correction low on October 27 has been breathtaking

Ed Yardeni

Is Everybody (Too) Happy?

Dec 20, 2023 3 min read

Everybody in the stock market (at least everybody with long positions, which includes most investors) has been happy since the S&P 500 bottomed on October 27—until it stumbled a bit today. The market was up in the morning despite a dive by FedEx shares. But stock prices tumbled during a late afternoon selloff. Most pundits concluded that the market was overbought and due for a correction. We

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/20/23

Dec 20, 2023 1 min read paid

The bears who still expect a recession base their arguments on historical precedents: At times in the past when economic indicators were flashing the signs they are today, recessions occurred. But we see good reasons not to apply past rules of thumb to the current set of circumstances. Moreover, our Roaring 2020s thesis that widespread adoption of new technologies will set off a productivity boom is unfolding. As a result,

Ed Yardeni

Dow's New High Should Be Confirmed By Transports In Early 2024

Dec 19, 2023 2 min read paid

Real GDP is now estimated to be up 2.7% (saar) during Q4, according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model. The estimate was raised from 2.6% following the release of today's housing starts report for November. Residential starts increased 14.8% last month to 1.56 million (saar), the highest in six months. Single-family starts jumped 18.0%, while starts of multifamily projects increased

Ed Yardeni

Inflation: China Is Killing It

Dec 18, 2023 2 min read paid

What have we learned about inflation over the past year? One of the main reasons that the US doesn't need to have a recession to bring down inflation is that China is having the recession for us. China's property bubble has burst, and the deflationary consequences are far greater and more global than those following the bursting of similar bubbles in Japan during the late 1980s

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Investors Broadening Their Horizon

Dec 17, 2023 2 min read paid

The current bull market started during October of last year. Since then, the bears have been warning that it was a rally in a bear market. That's because most of them expected a recession, and many of them still do. In addition, they've observed that the rally has been narrowly led by the MegaCap-8. The rest of the stock market seemed to be comatose. Our view

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 18 - 22

Dec 17, 2023 2 min read paid

On Wednesday, at his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish. So bond and stock prices continued to rally on expectations that the Fed might cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 by 75bps in total. On Friday, NY Fed President John Williams pushed back by saying, "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now." More Fed officials will weigh in on

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Fed - Tightening Or Merely Normalizing?

Dec 15, 2023 3 min read paid

Based on November’s employment report released on Friday, we can safely conclude that there is still no sign of an impending recession. The Godot recession is still a no-show. Our soft-landing (a.k.a. rolling recession) scenario remains intact, as it has since early last year. The diehard hard landers are still expecting a recession, as they have been since the Fed started to tighten in early 2022. But

Ed Yardeni

Bond & Stock Prices In Mini Meltup Over Soft Landing

Dec 14, 2023 2 min read

Investors are obviously relieved that the economy may be on a sustainable soft-landing path and might avoid a recession (again) in 2024. They are especially relieved that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently implied that he and his colleagues are relieved about this too and are talking more dovish now: (1) Waller. For example, two weeks ago, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, in a November 28 speech titled, "Something Appears to

Ed Yardeni