Archive

Hot PPI Inflation & Cold Jobless Claims

Aug 14, 2025 2 min read paid

We've acknowledged that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased since the release of July's cold employment report and July's lukewarm CPI report so far this month. But we've also noted that more economic indicators will be released before the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. So we haven't abandoned our increasingly contrary view that "none-and-done in 2025&

Ed Yardeni

In Defense of the US Dollar

Aug 14, 2025 3 min read

Like the late comedian Rodney Dangerfield, the dollar has been getting "no respect" recently. A few officials of the Trump administration want to see a weaker dollar. America's adversaries would like to replace it as a key currency. Doomsayers predict a major dollar crisis in response to the huge US trade and federal government deficits. We remain constructive on the dollar for the following reasons: (1)

Ed Yardeni

What's In Style?

Aug 13, 2025 2 min read

Are SMidCaps coming back into fashion? They had a good day today. They outperformed the LargeCaps. The S&P 500 LargeCaps was up 0.3%, while the S&P 400 MidCaps and the S&P 600 SmallCaps rose 1.6% and 2.0% (chart). The Russell 2000 SmallCaps rose 2.0% as well. That led lots of market commentators to declare after the close that the SMidCaps

Ed Yardeni

Will Trump's Tariffs Get Tariffried By The Courts?

Aug 13, 2025 3 min read paid

The Trump administration is becoming increasingly concerned that the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, D.C., might soon rule that President Donald Trump lacks the legal authority to impose tariffs as he has been doing. That's our takeaway from a letter dated August 11 sent to the Clerk of the Court by two of the administration's top lawyers. It involves a

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes May Be Lurking On Easying Path

Aug 12, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped to new record highs following the release of July's CPI report today. The headline inflation rate held steady at 2.7%, while the core rate warmed a bit to 3.1%. Stock investors concluded that the Fed is even more likely to ease in September. Indeed, the CME FedWatch tool now shows that the odds of that happening are 94.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Tarrifying Semiconductors

Aug 11, 2025 5 min read paid

💡The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated August 7, 2025. Semiconductors initially were exempt from the tariffs President Donald Trump announced on imports from Taiwan and elsewhere, but their rarified status may be about to end. President Trump said on Tuesday that semiconductor-specific tariffs would be announced in the next week or so. Then, last night after the financial markets closed, the President floated the idea of

Jackie Doherty
Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 11 - 15

Aug 10, 2025 3 min read

This is a week loaded with economic data releases that have the potential to shed light on the health of the US economy and change minds at the Federal Reserve—none more so, perhaps, than inflation. While the CPI and PPI are always of interest, the July releases come in the aftermath of jobs data that increased the prospect of interest rate cuts. In this context, retail sales data for

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Is The Sky The Limit?

Aug 10, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 nearly matched its July 28 record high on Friday. The Nasdaq did rise to a record high. Once again, the Magnificent-7 stocks collectively are leading the pack. That's because these remarkable companies continue to deliver magnificent earnings, which are increasingly being driven higher by the demand for cloud computing as AI increasingly powers the Digital Revolution. The sky seems to be the limit

Ed Yardeni

Musical Chairs & Policies At The Fed

Aug 7, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump on Thursday nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. Trump said Miran will serve in the role until January 31, 2026, while he continues a search for a permanent replacement. The Senate will probably confirm his nomination quickly and before the September meeting of the FOMC. If so, then there could be at least

Ed Yardeni

Still Banking On A Resilient US Economy

Aug 6, 2025 3 min read paid

It's a light day for economic news. Stock prices are drifting higher today because the Q2 earnings reporting season is going well, with very few exceptions. Notwithstanding the weakness of the latest employment report and the two surveys of purchasing managers, in manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, stock investors are still betting on the resilience of the economy since it is continuing to deliver solid earnings. We are betting

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Relax, Folks: Jobs Report Was OK

Aug 6, 2025 1 min read paid

Yes, payroll employment rose less than expected in July, and, yes, revisions pegged it lower than initially thought during May and June. That doesn’t mean demand for labor has slacked off, as the extreme reactions of the financial markets suggested. The payroll weakness says more about the supply of labor than demand for it. Indeed, the two are in balance, which Fed Chief Powell even said last week. Other

Ed Yardeni

July's Purchasing Managers Surveys Are Mixed

Aug 5, 2025 2 min read

The stock and bond markets didn't respond much to the national survey of non-manufacturing purchasing managers this morning, even though it was on the weak side (chart). The overall NM-PMI, which the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) compiles, edged down to 50.1, just above the expansion/contraction line at 50.0. The production component was solid at 52.6. But the employment component fell to 46.4.

Ed Yardeni