Archive

DEEP DIVE: Slicing & Dicing Inflation

Oct 20, 2023 7 min read paid

Most economists, including Debbie and me, believe that if the data don’t support our forecasts, then there must be something wrong with the data and that they will be revised to show we were right after all. Most economists, including yours truly, also often dismiss components of headline indicators that don’t support our story and look to the remaining “core” indicators for conformity to our outlook and therefore

Ed Yardeni

Powell Remains Hawkish

Oct 19, 2023 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell should be very concerned about the rapid disinversion of the yield curve since early July as the bond yield soared from around 4.00% to nearly 5.00% today. If he is, he didn't show it during his interview today. Instead, he noted that the economy remains strong and monetary policy might have to be tightened some more: "We are attentive to recent

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/19/23

Oct 19, 2023 1 min read paid

To answer whether the latest bout of inflation in general will prove persistent or transitory, we must look deeper than the headline rate. Core rates exclude energy and food, but shelter arguably should be excluded to get the answer, as it too is still distorted by temporary pandemic-related factors. The resounding message we hear from September’s CPI data: Both headline and core CPI rates—ex shelter—were 2.0%

Ed Yardeni

Mortgage Rate Rockets Up To 8%

Oct 18, 2023 1 min read

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rocketed up to 8.00% today. It is up from 7.57% on October 12 (chart). That's the highest it has been since most of the 1990s. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.91% today. That along with the unnerving crisis in the Middle East unnerved the stock market today. Mortgage applications to purchase new and existing homes is now

Ed Yardeni

Good News Is Bad News

Oct 17, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's September reports for retail sales and industrial production were better than expected. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows real GDP grew 5.4% (saar) during Q3, up from 5.1% on October 10. Leading the estimate higher is real consumer spending with a 4.1% increase (table). That's good news for the stock market. It confirms our forecast that S&P

Ed Yardeni

The Forces Of Light Versus The Forces of Darkness

Oct 16, 2023 2 min read

Yin and yang. The forces of darkness appeared in the bond market while light shined in the stock market today. Bond investors would like to see weaker economic indicators to have more confidence that inflation can continue to moderate. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remained relatively elevated at 51.8 on Friday (chart). They would also like to see less supply at the Treasury bond auctions, but that isn'

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: October 16-20

Oct 15, 2023 2 min read paid

The big banks kicked off the Q3 earnings season this past Friday. Their results beat expectations. That's consistent with our view that S&P 500 operating earnings per share rose to a record high during Q3. So we have nothing to fear other than higher interest rates, a consumer-led recession, persistent inflation, and more horror in Ukraine and now the Middle East too. The week's

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Stop The World —We Want To Get Off!

Oct 15, 2023 2 min read

On December 23, 1776, Thomas Paine famously opined: "These are the times that try men's souls." He did so in an article titled, "The Crisis." On Friday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon kicked off Q3's earnings season with a stern warning to investors: “Now may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” he wrote in the company’s

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: What's Behind the Recent Bond Rout?

Oct 13, 2023 5 min read paid

Why did the 10-year Treasury bond yield soar from 3.97% on July 31 to 4.81% on October 3 (Fig. 1 below)? There are several explanations, and the answer is probably “all of the below.” Consider the following seven points: (1) Too much supply of Treasuries. We’ve been arguing that the deluge of Treasury supply has been the main driver of this rout in the bond market. The

Ed Yardeni

Is Inflation Persistent, Sticky, or Transitory?

Oct 12, 2023 2 min read paid

In our opinion, price inflation is turning out to be transitory after all. Wage inflation is more persistent, but moderating. Rent inflation is stickier, but also moderating. Today's CPI report for September mostly confirms our assessment. Fed officials will undoubtedly stress that at 3.7% y/y and 4.1%, the headline and core CPI inflation rates remain too high above their 2.0% inflation target. However, some

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/12/23

Oct 12, 2023 1 min read paid

Today, we challenge another aspect of the hard landers’ narrative: the notion that consumers will retrench, leading the broad economy into a recession. True, many consumers must resume paying the student-debt piper soon, and many have depleted their excess pandemic saving. … But bigger forces are supporting consumer spending: Consumers simply don’t halt the spending they love to do when their incomes are secure and growing, as now, with wages

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Ignore The Fog Of War

Oct 11, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni