Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 95)

Market Call: Getting Too Hot? Also: Our New S&P 500 Target.

Jul 16, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is hot. The Nasdaq is even hotter. The mounting concern is that both might be getting too hot resulting in a stock market meltup that could set the stage for a meltdown. If so, we expect that the downdraft would be a correction rather than a new bear market since we give 25% odds to a recession scenario over the next two and a half

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 17-21

Jul 16, 2023 2 min read paid

The good news is that the Federal Open Mouth Committee is prohibited from talking publicly now until July 27. That's the day after the end of the next FOMC meeting, when it is widely expected they will hike the federal funds rate by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%. It is also widely expected that will be "one-and-done" for Fed rate hiking for a while. We

Ed Yardeni

US Disinflation Is Made In China

Jul 13, 2023 2 min read paid

It's not quite the great fall of China. However, something is definitely wrong with China's economy. June's trade data showed that Chinese exports fell sharply for the second month in a row and imports have remained flat since mid-2021 (chart). It was widely expected that the end of the government's pandemic lockdowns late last year would boost economic activity in China and

Ed Yardeni

Nothing To Fear But Fearless Investors

Jul 12, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 climbed to a new bull market high today of 4472 (chart). It is now 10.6% above its 200-day moving average. It is climbing along the upper end of its bull-market channel. Today's CPI news helped to alleviate fears that persistent inflation might force the Fed to persist with rate hiking resulting in a recession. Inflation seems to be more transitory than was

Ed Yardeni

June's CPI Was Cool

Jul 12, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/12/23

Jul 12, 2023 1 min read paid

June’s newly released employment report gives us clues about June’s not-yet-released CEI, and the CEI closely tracks GDP. So from the employment report, we extrapolate that June’s CEI will likely confirm that real GDP grew around 2.0% y/y during Q2, close to the Atlanta Fed’s current prediction (2.1%). A recession is still possible if the Fed keeps tightening, but we see just a

Ed Yardeni

Q2 Earnings Reporting Season Starts With the Big Banks

Jul 11, 2023 2 min read paid

The Q2 earnings season starts off this week with the major banks reporting their results. Based on weekly data provided by the Fed, we know that loans and leases at the large domestic banks rose modestly by 3.0% y/y through the end of June (chart). There's no sign of a credit crunch so far following March's banking crisis, which was quickly contained by the

Ed Yardeni

Sunny Day

Jul 10, 2023 1 min read paid

Today was a sunny day for stocks and bonds following a few stormy days. That's even though two Federal Reserve district bank presidents (Daly & Mester) said that inflation remains too high and more rate hikes will probably be necessary to bring it down. On the other hand, another one of them (Bostic) said the Fed's "policy right now is clearly in the restrictive territory.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bullish Channel

Jul 9, 2023 2 min read paid

The current bull market started on October 12 when the S&P 500 bottomed at 3577.03 (chart). It rose 24.6% reaching a high of 4455.59 on July 3. So far it is down only 1.3% through Friday's close. It seems to have found resistance at the upper end of the bull market's channel. If so, then it might fall back down

Jackie Doherty

The Economic Week Ahead: July 10-14

Jul 8, 2023 2 min read

This week is jampacked with June's inflation indicators. On balance, they should show that inflation continues to moderate. On Monday, the FRBNY survey of consumer inflationary expectations should decline from May's 4.1% for the one-year-ahead and 3.0% for the three-years-ahead readings. The price of gasoline has a big impact on these expectations, and it was down 26.5% y/y during the four weeks

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Worry List

Jul 8, 2023 4 min read paid

Economists who are still forecasting a recession typically offer four reasons. First is the inversion of the yield curve. Second is the drop in M2. Third is the significant tightening of monetary policy resulting from the increase in the federal funds rate combined with quantitative tightening (QT). Fourth is that consumers’ excess saving accumulated during the pandemic could run out as soon as September. A more immediate risk to the

Ed Yardeni

Hot Job Reports Hit Stocks & Bonds Like A Bucket Of Cold Water

Jul 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The job market is still hot despite the 500bps increase in the federal funds rate since March of last year. Today's batch of strong labor market reports turned investors cold on stocks and bonds. Good news for workers is bad news for financial markets if it means that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. In addition, it gives hard-landers another spin: The economy may be strong

Ed Yardeni

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