Ed Yardeni

Certainly Uncertain

Mar 19, 2025 3 min read paid

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used the word "uncertainty" 16 times in his press conference today. We sympathize. At the outset, it's impossible to know what tariffs will be imposed by the US on April 2., on which countries, and for how long. When the specifics are revealed, it will still be difficult to forecast their impact on economic growth and inflation in the US and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/19/25

Mar 19, 2025 1 min read paid

The Bull Versus The Bear Case Will all the Trump turmoil deepen the recent stock market correction into a bear market? Very few bear markets have occurred without accompanying recessions. If no recession looms, today’s historically stretched valuations could be sustained, Dr Ed says. But the Trump factor is unpredictable, and a trade war could cause a recession. Would Trump pivot before that point, pressured by the Stock Market

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

'Liberation Day' Coming One Day After April Fools' Day

Mar 18, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market rally of the past two days faded today. The S&P 500 fell -1.1%, just shy of correction territory. Even Nvidia fell 4.3%, even though the company announced new chips and a strategic collaboration with GM today. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has been hovering around 4.30% since late February. The price of gold rose to another record high (chart). We suspect

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Was That The Bottom?

Mar 17, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq might have bottomed on Thursday, but we doubt it for reasons we get into below. Both indexes rallied nicely on Friday and today. That action jibes with the extremely bearish sentiment readings of the bull/bear ratios compiled by Investors Intelligence and AAII. Last week, the former was down to 0.80, the lowest since the 2022 bear market, and the latter

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: The Best Trump Trade

Mar 16, 2025 3 min read paid

So far among the best Trump trades has been to short the S&P 500 since February 19 through last Thursday (chart). It fell 10.1% over this period. Let's call it the "Trump Thump." We aren't convinced that the correction is over despite Friday's rally and extremely bearish sentiment readings, which tend to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. In

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 17-21

Mar 16, 2025 3 min read paid

In the week ahead, lots of economic data will be packed into the first two days, followed by the FOMC meeting decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday. The FOMC is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, though the tone of Powell's presser may depend on how February's batch of economic indicators released on Monday and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Lowering Our S&P 500 Targets

Mar 15, 2025 7 min read

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, March 13, 2025. Strategy I: Where Do We Go from Here? John Maynard Keynes is credited with saying, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” However, there is no definitive evidence that he actually said or wrote it. Wall Street’s forecasting community (including us) is scrambling both to assess February’s weaker-than-expected

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Scared Cat Bounce?

Mar 14, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 rebounded nicely today in the morning after falling into correction territory yesterday (chart). Was yesterday the bottom? It might have been based on sentiment indicators. On a fundamental basis, President Donald Trump (a.k.a., Tariff Man) didn't tweet about tariffs today after doubling down on Thursday. "I'm not going to bend at all," Trump said when asked about

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Why Cooler Inflation Isn't Lifting Markets

Mar 13, 2025 2 min read paid

February's inflation data provided conflicting stories. Both the CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected, but neither cheered the stock and bond markets. That's because the components of both gauges that feed into the Fed's preferred PCED inflation rate were actually a bit hotter. In addition, January's PPI increase was revised up from 0.4% to 0.6%. So it'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Trump Put Is Kaput!

Mar 12, 2025 3 min read

Vertigo is a sensation of spinning or whirling such that the person or their surroundings appear to be moving. The stock market didn't do much today, but everything else seemed to be spinning. The epicenter of all this vertigo continues to be the White House. More and more economists are increasing their odds of a recession. We raised ours to 35% a week ago. JP Morgan's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/12/25

Mar 12, 2025 1 min read paid

High Noise-To-Signal Ratios Unnerving Stock Investors It’s getting harder to make out the shape of the economy through the fog of Trump 2.0’s firings and tariffs. Indeed, one regional Fed bank sees real GDP contracting this quarter, another sees it expanding, and bad weather has distorted signals from several economic indicators. No wonder the stock market’s default position is risk-off and stocks have been correcting. We’

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Will Trump Tariff Turmoil Dim The Economy's Lights?

Mar 11, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market was whipsawed today by geopolitical developments. Stocks fell this morning when President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum. They then recovered after Ukraine agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire deal (pending Russia's acceptance). Incremental progress on a tariff-avoiding deal between the US and Canada late in the day provided an additional boost. But stock prices still closed down a bit for

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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