Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Odds Of A Longer War Increasing As Trump Set To Declare Victory

Mar 22, 2026 5 min read paid

Is the fog of war thinning or thickening? President Donald Trump has suggested that he is getting ready to declare victory. However, the Iranians have been at war with the US and Israel for 47 years and are showing no signs of ending it. On Friday night, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US is "getting very close to meeting our objectives" and is considering "winding

Ed Yardeni

Why Is Gold Melting?

Mar 19, 2026 4 min read

There's plenty of geopolitical risk today, along with higher global inflation and larger US federal budget deficits ahead. Yet, the price of an ounce of gold is down sharply today. It fell to an intraday low of $4508 per ounce at 9:02 am EST, down from a recent closing high of $5311 on Monday, March 2, two days after the start of the current war in the

Ed Yardeni

Did Powell Trigger A Taper Tantrum In The Stock Market Today?

Mar 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The fog of war is back. Oil prices jumped today after Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing facility. Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to strike oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Qatar then reported that Iranian missile strikes had damaged a key liquefied natural gas export facility. Early this morning at 2:17 a.m. EST, the price of a barrel of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Is Less Dire Strait Easing Market Fears? (with special guest Eric Wallerstein)

Mar 18, 2026 1 min read paid

The energy and financial markets are taking the war in the Middle East remarkably well, all things considered. Investors seem to believe that the war will be short-lived and perhaps are focusing on the bright side: The lost physical supplies of oil are maybe half as much as they could have been, partly because Iran is still allowing tankers from friendly nations to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Ed Yardeni

Oil Shock Is Latest Test Of US Economy's Resilience

Mar 17, 2026 3 min read paid

The latest crude oil price spike has drawn comparisons to previous similar spikes (charts). There were six of them before the current one, since 1970. The first five coincided with recessions. The two during the 1970s caused two recessions and boosted inflation, resulting in a lost "stagflationary" decade for the stock market. The previous spike in 2022 coincided with a bear market in stocks, but there was no

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

A Break In The Weather

Mar 16, 2026 4 min read paid

Forecasting the weather is easier than forecasting the timeline and outcome of a war. The expression "the fog of war" is a bit confusing because fog often lifts within hours. Wars last much longer. Today, we had "a break in the weather." The war is ongoing, but there were sighs of relief in the energy and financial markets. That's because some tankers are getting

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 16-20

Mar 15, 2026 3 min read

This week, many of the world’s top central banks have their first crack at responding to skyrocketing oil and gas prices driven by the war in the Middle East. Along with hearing from the Fed (Wed), we’ll get rate decisions from the European Central Bank (Thu), the Bank of Japan (Thu), the Bank of England (Thu), the Bank of Canada (Wed), the Swiss National Bank (Thu), Sweden’s

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: The War Is Getting Foggier

Mar 14, 2026 3 min read

Why has the stock market held up so well since the start of the war? The S&P 500 is down only 4.96% from its record high on January 27 and 3.59% since the start of the war on February 28 (chart). It fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday and held it. The obvious explanation is that the market is discounting a short war.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Between Iran and A Hard Place

Mar 14, 2026 10 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our March 9, 2026 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. US Strategy I: Roaring 2020s Vs Stagflating 1970s Redux. In last Tuesday’s QuickTakes, reacting to the latest Middle East war, we wrote: “We’ve been expecting a pullback due to excessive bullish sentiment, but now we expect a 10% correction from the high. It’s hard to imagine that the IRGC [the Islamic Revolutionary Guard

Ed Yardeni

Dire Strait & The Home Front

Mar 12, 2026 5 min read paid

Stock and bond prices fell today as oil prices rose back to around $100 per barrel. The US and Israel continue to pound Iran from the air, but Iran's regime continues to launch missiles and drones at Gulf nations and vessels, and Israel too. The WSJ reported today that "Israeli officials assess Iran's ruling regime is unlikely to fall soon, as its rulers remain in

Ed Yardeni

FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl

Mar 11, 2026 3 min read paid

Today, the 32-member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously approved a coordinated emergency oil release of 400 million barrels, the largest in its 52-year history. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 20mbd of oil from the global market. That implies the IEA is providing 20 days' worth of relief oil supplies and that the group expects a short war. The price

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Between Iran & A Hard Place

Mar 11, 2026 1 min read paid

With the US suddenly thick in the fog of war, Dr Ed discusses the collateral effects on the US economy and stock market. Spiking oil prices may precipitate a stock market correction rather than a bear market, but the latter is possible. The Roaring 2020s remains Dr Ed’s base-case outlook for the rest of this year with subjective odds unchanged at 60%. But there’s now much less

Ed Yardeni

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