Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Warsh’s Tasks

Jul 15, 2026 1 min read paid

The AI boom is fueling the Fed’s hawkishness, as Ed and Elias agree it should, since it’s also fueling inflation currently. Yet Fed Chair Warsh asserted at his confirmation hearing that AI is a disinflationary force. They agree with that as well: It is disinflationary over the long term, which is the crux of our Roaring 2020s economic thesis; but paradoxically, AI is escalating inflation now as rapid

Ed Yardeni

A Refreshingly Cool CPI Inflation Report Must Please Warsh

Jul 14, 2026 4 min read paid

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds rate (FFR) at its July 28-29 meeting? Foggetaboutit! Today's CPI inflation report was surprisingly subdued across the board. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target, so the FOMC is likely to maintain its tightening stance, which was adopted in June. However, after the latest inflation report, there is no rush for the FOMC to act, contrary to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Captain America: Guardian Of The Strait!

Jul 13, 2026 4 min read paid

MOU is DOA. The memorandum of (mis)understanding between the US and Iran is dead on arrival. Act II of the latest Gulf War is underway after a brief interlude. President Donald Trump declared today that the United States will be known as "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT." He announced that the US is reinstating its naval blockade on Iran and plans to enforce a 20% fee

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: War & Peace & War

Jul 12, 2026 4 min read paid

In our March 4, 2026 QuickTakes, we wrote that the war between the US and Iran might last longer than widely expected. We suggested that any peace deal with Iran's government would effectively be vetoed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps simply by their threatening to attack ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. "These terrorists are likely to be hard to eradicate with just air power,

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Great Expectations

Jul 12, 2026 5 min read paid

The S&P 500 has been meandering around 7,500 since mid-May. Earnings should continue to drive the stock market higher. However, investors may be fretting that expectations for the upcoming earnings reporting season are so high that if they aren't exceeded, the market might swoon again in July as it did in June. If so, dip buyers are likely to limit the downside. We still

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 13-17

Jul 11, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,575.39, up 1.2% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 1.7% last week. The dominant story was a sharp re-escalation of the war between the US and Iran. Trump declared the ceasefire "over" on Wednesday after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US carried out fresh airstrikes Wednesday night

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

June FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed's Hawkish Pivot

Jul 9, 2026 4 min read

I. Sentiment The S&P 500 first rose above 7,500 on May 14. It has continued to fluctuate around there since then. This may be a sign that investors are a bit fatigued from all the commotion about the Strait of Hormuz, AI, earnings, Warsh, the Magnificent-7, semiconductors, FOMO, and FEMO so far this year. The market might continue to fluctuate around 7,500 over the rest

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

War! What Is It Good For?

Jul 8, 2026 3 min read

The 1970 song "War! What Is It Good For?" was performed by the Temptations on an album and by Edwin Starr as a single. The song's answer to the question is "Absolutely nothing!" The powerful lyrics include: "It ain't nothing but a heartbreaker / Friend only to the undertaker, woo!" Financial market history shows that geopolitical crises, including wars, often have

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Making Sense Of A Strange Jobs Report

Jul 8, 2026 1 min read paid

The June jobs report was widely characterized as weak. Ed and Elias don’t see it that way. The disappointing headline gain reflected a misleading statistical distortion. June’s decline in Leisure & Hospitality was attributable to an early Memorial Day, which boosted May’s gain. With the support of multiple underlying strengths, the labor market remains resilient, as demand slightly exceeds supply. The Fed’s tightening bias—prioritizing its

Ed Yardeni

Booming AI Imports Depressing US GDP, Though Not Final Sales

Jul 7, 2026 4 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q2-2026 real GDP growth at just 1.4% (saar). That's because net exports (i.e., exports minus imports) dragged it down by 1.3 ppt. During the quarter, AI-related imports increased sharply, outpacing the large increase in US exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The picture is brighter below the headline number. Real final sales to private

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Rotation Or Correction Ahead In Response To Earnings Season?

Jul 6, 2026 4 min read paid

The Q2-2026 earnings reporting season begins next week. The major banks will report at the end of next week. We expect they will beat expectations by reducing their bad-loan provisions. In addition, loan demand has been growing faster in recent weeks, and the IPO calendar has been busy. The big risk up ahead is that technology companies, especially the hyperscalers, won't beat analysts' overly optimistic

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 6-10

Jul 5, 2026 3 min read

The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,483.23, up 1.8% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 2.1%. Memory chip stocks pulled back sharply last week, cooling off the parabolic run that followed Micron's blowout June 24 earnings report (chart). Shares surged 17% the next day to a new all-time high of $1,255.00, then closed Thursday at $975.56, down

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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