Ed Yardeni

Will Emerging Markets Outperform Again In 2026?

Dec 31, 2025 3 min read paid

The Emerging Markets (EM) MSCI stock price index may outperform both the US MSCI stock price index and the Developed Countries ex-US MSCI stock price index in 2026. It outperformed the former in 2025 but underperformed the latter and many of its constituents. The broader EM outperformance we expect in 2026 might last for a few years. That's because advanced economies have, on average, stagnated in both production

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: More Thoughts on 2026: Markets, Earnings, and Volatility

Dec 31, 2025 1 min read paid

Dr Ed Yardeni shares additional thoughts on the outlook for 2026, including why the economy and markets remain resilient and where risks may emerge. He discusses earnings-driven market gains, consensus S&P 500 targets, the impact of Fed easing and fiscal stimulus, and why the first half of 2026 could be volatile despite a constructive full-year outlook. Ed also covers AI competition, productivity trends, bond yields, deficits, gold, and

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: 2026--Another Year Of Living Audaciously!

Dec 29, 2025 10 min read paid

This is a reprint of our December 11, 2025 Morning Briefing. 2026 I: What Will Likely Go Right? The Roaring 2020s remains our base-case scenario. For 2026, we are raising our subjective odds of this prospect from 50% to 60%. We are less concerned about a meltup/meltdown scenario now, so we are lowering the odds of that from 30% to 20%. We are keeping our bearish scenario at 20%

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Both AI Story And Contrary Indicators Are Mixed

Dec 27, 2025 4 min read

The AI plot thickens: Chinese scientists have unveiled an optical computing chip that outperformed Nvidia’s top GPU by over a hundredfold in speed and energy efficiency—particularly for generative tasks such as video production and image synthesis. (Incidentally, YRI is working with a Korean media company that will use AI to synthesize Dr Ed’s speech in various languages.) One of our sage accounts observed that AI may be

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Stocks, Bonds & Gold In 2026

Dec 24, 2025 paid

Ed Yardeni shares his outlook for stocks, bonds, and gold in 2026, examining the key drivers that could shape each asset class in the year ahead. 🔒Exclusive Early Access for Paid Members: Below, you'll find Dr. Ed's latest webcast. Paid members can enjoy immediate access to the video. This content will become available to the public at a later date—don't miss out on

Ed Yardeni

Mistletoe Magic And The S&P 500 In 2026

Dec 24, 2025 3 min read

Mistletoe is relevant to several cultures. In the advent of the Christian era, mistletoe in the Western world became associated with Christmas as a decoration under which lovers are expected to kiss, as well as with protection from witches and demons. Let's hope its magic lasts into 2026 through next Christmas. The consensus among Wall Street investment strategists is that the magic will last. According to Bloomberg, their

Ed Yardeni

Remind Us: Why Did The Fed Ease?

Dec 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Productivity must be booming. Real GDP jumped 4.3% (saar) in Q3, following a 3.8% increase in Q2. Over the same period, aggregate hours worked in private industry was flat (saar). Productivity must have increased by more than 3.5% over the previous two quarters. That's consistent with our productivity-led Roaring 2020s scenario. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross

Ed Yardeni

Why Are Precious Metals Getting More Precious?

Dec 22, 2025 3 min read paid

Are the soaring prices of precious metals a warning sign that the Roaring 2020s might end in 2026? We don't think so. However, we have been considering what might be driving the recent spike in precious metals prices. On a y/y basis, gold is up 69.0%. It is lagging silver (139.5%), platinum (133.1%), and palladium (95.1%). We doubt this reflects a rebound in

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 22–26

Dec 21, 2025 3 min read

This looks to be a mercifully quiet holiday week that nonetheless offers a smattering of key data releases. Chief among them will be Q3's GDP and December's Consumer Confidence Index survey. Clearly, the economic fog caused by the government shutdown is following the markets into the new year. Though recent employment data have been illuminating—showing that the labor market may be a bit more robust

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Seeing Reindeer & Solid S&P 500 Earnings

Dec 21, 2025 3 min read paid

We believe the S&P 500 has been in a Santa Claus rally since it bottomed on November 20 at 6538 (chart). It is up 4.5% since then through Friday's close. Over the past 10 years, the average increase in the S&P 500 from the start of November through the end of the year has added 4.5 percentage points to its return. The

Ed Yardeni

Misleading CPI, Misleading Business Surveys, Reliable Claims

Dec 18, 2025 2 min read

Now that the government shutdown is over, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is releasing economic indicators again. However, the quality of the latest releases is an issue. Today's lower-than-expected November CPI inflation report boosted stock and bond prices after its release. But the gains faded as economists started to question the CPI numbers. Indeed, the release included a warning that the government shutdown might have distorted the

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 With & Without The Magnificent-7

Dec 18, 2025 4 min read paid

We are declaring "Mission Accomplished" on our 7000-year-end target for the S&P 500. The index rose to a record high of 6901 on December 11. That's close enough for us and might be the high for this year. We aren't ruling out a Santa Claus rally over the remainder of the year. However, that is unlikely to happen if the S&

Ed Yardeni
Joe Abbott

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