Ed Yardeni

Lots of Jobs, But Inflation Eroding Wage Gains

Aug 5, 2022 1 min read paid

July's payroll employment in July blew past forecasts, and there were upward revisions to the prior two months, boosting payrolls back up to pre-pandemic levels and a new record high. The bad news is that the wage-price spiral is still spiraling and reducing the purchasing power of consumers:

Ed Yardeni

Q2 Earnings Season Is Unsurprising So Far

Aug 4, 2022 1 min read

As of mid-day Wednesday, 356 (or 71%) of the S&P 500 companies reported their Q2 results. Both the revenues and earnings surprises were positive, but relatively low for the third quarter in a row: (1) Revenues are beating the consensus forecast by 2.5%, and earnings have exceeded estimates by 5.6% so far (chart below). (2) Collectively, the companies have a y/y revenue gain of 15.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Switching Planets: Investors Now From Venus, Analysts From Mars

Aug 4, 2022 3 min read paid

Since our June 24 QuickTakes, we’ve been making the case that the bear market in the S&P 500 might have ended on June 16, when it was down 23.6% to 3666 from its record high of 4796 on January 3. We wrote: “[S]entiment indicators were so bearish that they were bullish. … On a fundamental basis, we’ve noted that commodity prices are showing signs of

Ed Yardeni

The Best Cure For High Gasoline Prices

Aug 4, 2022 1 min read paid

The best cure for high gasoline prices is high gasoline prices. Gas prices have tumbled by 86 cents since hitting a record average high of $5.02 on June 14. Over the past month alone the national average is down by 65 cents. Americans cut back on driving when gas prices spiked above $5 a gallon. The 4-week moving average of gasoline usage dropped 9.5% to 8.6 million

Ed Yardeni

From FODA To FOMO

Aug 3, 2022 1 min read

During the first half of this year, investors were driven by fear of delusional analysts (FODA). They believed that the analysts were much too optimistic about earnings. Now that the analysts are finally shaving their earnings estimates, FOMO (fear of missing out) is driving investors into a bullish frenzy. The S&P 500 is up 13.3% since it bottomed at 3666 on June 16. One week after it

Ed Yardeni

ECB Stuck Between A Rock & A Hard Place

Aug 3, 2022 1 min read paid

Soaring consumer prices and the prospect of energy rationing this coming winter have depressed consumer confidence in the Eurozone. No wonder that the volume of retail sale in the region fell 1.2% m/m and 3.7% y/y during June, suggesting that the risks of a recession in the Eurozone are increasing (chart below).

Ed Yardeni

US Services Economy Continues To Grow

Aug 3, 2022 1 min read

The S&P 500 stock price index and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield are both up today following July's better-than-expected ISM nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI). It edged up to 56.7 last month. Last week's S&P Global flash estimate suggested it would be weaker. Here's more: (1) The NM-PMI's new orders index was strong at 59.9.

Ed Yardeni

Less Helped Wanted

Aug 2, 2022 1 min read paid

There are still 1.8 open jobs per available worker. However, June's job openings dropped 605,000 to about 10.7 million, the fewest since September 2021. It was the sharpest decline since April 2020, when the economy was in the lockdown recession.

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Truck Tonnage & Employment

Aug 1, 2022 1 min read

The trucking industry didn't get the recession memo yet. The ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.7% in June after rising 0.3% in May. In June, the index equaled 120.1, rebounding almost back to its pre-pandemic record high. Trucking is a good coincident indicator of the economy, representing 72.5% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/1/22

Aug 1, 2022 1 min read

We’ve been making the case that the latest bear market might have bottomed on June 16. So far, so good. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. Just a few weeks back, industry analysts’ earnings estimates suggested they were oblivious to investors’ recession fears, and we quipped that the

Ed Yardeni

Signs of Peak Inflation

Aug 1, 2022 1 min read

Today was a good day for those of us expecting to see peak inflation soon. July's US manufacturing purchasing managers (M-PMI) survey found that the M-PMI prices-paid index dropped to 60.0 from 87.1 in January. That's not surprising since the prices-paid and prices-received indexes that we compile from the five regional business surveys confirmed that inflationary pressures may be abating (charts below). That'

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, August 1-5

Jul 31, 2022 2 min read paid

Can you believe it’s August already? This week, we’ll get lots of data on business activity, employment, consumers, housing, and construction. On balance, it should all be consistent with our growth recession scenario. Consider the following: (1) Business. On Monday, ISM’s M-PMI is likely to fall closer to 50.0. A similar index that we compile from the 5 regional Fed surveys was very weak last month.

Ed Yardeni

Page 115 of 129

Lots of Jobs, But Inflation Eroding Wage Gains

Q2 Earnings Season Is Unsurprising So Far

DEEP DIVE: Switching Planets: Investors Now From Venus, Analysts From Mars

The Best Cure For High Gasoline Prices

From FODA To FOMO

ECB Stuck Between A Rock & A Hard Place

US Services Economy Continues To Grow

Less Helped Wanted

No Recession In Truck Tonnage & Employment

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/1/22

Signs of Peak Inflation

The Economic Week Ahead, August 1-5