Ed Yardeni

China Dragon's Breath Is Less Fiery

Aug 14, 2024 2 min read

China's economy is faltering. July data suggest the government will have to provide more stimulus to meet its 5% economic growth target for the year. Most striking is the small but unusual decline in bank loans during the month (chart). It suggests a lack of confidence among businesses and consumers, potentially leading to reduced investment and spending. China's real retail sales rose just 2.2% y/

Ed Yardeni

2% Inflation: Are We There Yet?

Aug 14, 2024 2 min read paid

On long car rides, the kids in the back seat ask their parents, “Are we there yet?” Investors have been asking the same question about the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target. The answer is we aren’t there yet, but we're close. At his Jackson Hole speech at the end of next week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to confirm that. The question is whether he

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/14/24

Aug 14, 2024 1 min read paid

Corporate earnings have never been higher, suggesting that employment should continue to grow as profitable companies expand their payrolls. Today, Ed and Eric put the prospect of a recession into perspective with their “Credit Crisis Cycle.” Ed notes that S&P 500 companies’ record-high forward earnings is a bullish indicator for the stock price index. The S&P 500 forward profit margin is near its record high and

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Immaculate Disinflation!

Aug 13, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's July PPI was cooler than expected, rising just 0.1% m/m and 2.2% y/y. The markets responded by betting on a swifter Fed interest rate cutting cycle, sinking the 2-year Treasury yield to 3.956% and the 10-year yield to 3.856%. Stocks rallied in response to the data. The low inflation print supports our view that the US economy has left inflation

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Is Oil Price Anticipating an Imminent War Between Iran & Israel?

Aug 12, 2024 2 min read

The war in the Middle East may be about to widen. Consider the following: (1) The Israeli intelligence community reportedly believes that Iran has decided to directly target Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh. That decision was made after an internal debate between the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG) and the new Iranian president and his advisors. The IRG has been pushing for a

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

S&P 500 EPS At Record High During Q2

Aug 12, 2024 3 min read paid

Now that the S&P 500 companies are more than 90% through the Q2 earnings reporting season, let's do a quick check up on how Corporate America is faring. In short, there's no sign of an imminent recession as S&P 500 earnings rose to a record high during Q2. Here's more happy news to serve as a tonic to the geopolitical

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Market Call: More Churning?

Aug 11, 2024 3 min read paid

We've been expecting the stock market to churn for a while. We didn't expect it would churn so much in just one week as it did last week. So now what? Our bet is probably more churning is ahead with lots of volatility through the presidential election.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 12-16

Aug 11, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with economic reports. In addition, more Fed talking heads are likely to opine on last week's financial markets volatility and the monetary policy outlook. As market prognosticators debate the speed and size of coming interest rate cuts, the most important indicators are likely to be those closely tied to the Fed's dual mandate. Here's what we're watching

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: Stock Market Selloff: Blame the Sahm Rule, Carry Trades & Too Many Bulls

Aug 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Blaming the Sahm Rule, Carry Trades & Too Many Bulls. The stock markets’ adverse reaction to Friday’s jobs report apparently was to price in a hard landing and to expect a series of federal funds rate (FFR) cuts by the Fed, including a 50-basis-point cut in September. Helping to unnerve investors was that the increase in the unemployment rate might have triggered the Sahm Rule, implying that the jobless

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Tough Treasury Auctions Belie Renewed Recession Chatter

Aug 8, 2024 3 min read paid

US stock prices and bond yields rose today following the release of the latest weekly jobless claims report confirming our view that the labor market is still doing well. The S&P 500 jumped 2.3% to 5,319.31 and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 4.00%. The recent lift in the bond yield was exacerbated by the second straight day of weak Treasury auctions. Let&

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Claims Will Tell

Aug 7, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/7/24

Aug 7, 2024 1 min read paid

A weak July employment report does not a recession make. The financial markets reacted on Friday as though it does, but we believe that report was a weather-impacted anomaly and not representative of the strength of the US labor market. Eric & Ed make that case today, explaining what was going on behind the scenes to make Friday’s stock market unusually volatile, why we expect employment data to snap

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

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