Ed Yardeni

CPI Triggered Stock Market Hissy Fit

Sep 11, 2024 3 min read

This morning's CPI report showed inflation continues to moderate. Nevertheless, stock prices initially fell sharply on the news. While the headline CPI was up 0.2% m/m as expected, the core rose 0.3% instead of the expected 0.2%. That minor difference convinced lots of traders that the Fed would cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps rather than 50bps on September 18. Nevertheless, the

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/11/24

Sep 11, 2024 1 min read paid

The latest batch of labor market indicators has caused a temporary “growth scare,” in our opinion. Concerns that economic growth is slowing have convinced the markets that the Fed will open up the easing spigots and cut the federal funds rate by more than we expect. … Previous peaks in the yield-curve spread suggest that the bond yield is close to bottoming. … There were bright spots in the employment report too:

Ed Yardeni

China Is The Source Of The Deflation Trade

Sep 10, 2024 2 min read paid

Forget about a recession in the US. Currently, it is China's recession/depression that is weighing on oil prices, global bond yields, and the dollar. Weak Chinese demand for oil caused OPEC today to trim the outlook for global oil demand, further depressing oil prices. Brent crude oil prices fell below $70 a barrel on Tuesday to their cheapest since December 2021 (chart). Declining oil prices dragged the

Ed Yardeni

No News Is Good News

Sep 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Dr. Ed was interviewed on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning at 7 a.m (see link below). Ace journalist Lisa Abramowitcz noted that during the summer, we were saying that the economy is resilient and doesn't need much monetary stimulus, which might cause a meltup in stock prices. Now we are saying that if the Fed cuts the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps instead of 25bps on September

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 9-13

Sep 8, 2024 3 min read paid

This week's economic indicators will be primarily focused on inflation. Barring any unexpected surprises on the inflation front, the financial markets may care more about the few labor market indicators. The FOMC entered the blackout period ahead of its September meeting yesterday, sparing markets from an extra source of volatility. We expect the combination of a normalizing hiring, inflation, and interest rate environment (a.k.a. Immaculate Disinflation)

Ed Yardeni

Market Technicals: Is Sentiment Bearish Enough To Signal A Market Bottom?

Sep 8, 2024 2 min read

We asked Joe Feshbach for an update of his take on the stock market from a trading perspective: "Even with the recent decline in the stock market, I’m still recommending a cautious/defensive approach to stocks. My two biggest concerns have been the optimistic levels that the sentiment indicators have reached and the parabolic moves in technology charts followed by their significant recent declines. We’ve had a

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Carry-Trade Unwind Part II

Sep 8, 2024 3 min read paid

Something doesn't make sense. Why are stock prices falling when the Fed is set to lower interest rates to avert a recession and to stop the unemployment rate from rising by boosting economic growth? We had a glimpse of the answer in early August: The carry trade is still unwinding. Expectations that the Fed will lower our interest rates, while the Bank of Japan raises their interest rates

Ed Yardeni

Employers Are Not Hiring Or Firing. Productivity May Be the Reason.

Sep 6, 2024 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Great Normalization

Sep 5, 2024 3 min read paid

Oops: Bloomberg reported on Tuesday after the stock market closed, that the Department of Justice (DOJ) had sent Nvidia a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation. We speculated that a leak of that information might have caused Tuesday's selloff. On Wednesday after the close, Nvidia denied that it had received a DOJ subpoena. Go figure! Today's economic data were consistent with our short-term thesis (i.

Ed Yardeni

September Has Been A Busy Month So Far

Sep 4, 2024 3 min read paid

During the first two trading days of September, stock prices, oil prices, and bond yields fell sharply; the Department of Justice (DOJ) subpoenaed Nvidia in its antitrust probe; Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his hawkish monetary policy stance; US job openings were lower-than-expected; and, the US Treasury yield curve pancaked. Furthermore, the Fed's Beige Book reported that nine out of 12 Federal Reserve regional districts

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/4/24

Sep 4, 2024 1 min read paid

Today, Dr. Ed puts the notion of a recession still to come into perspective. Since 1945, the US economy has been in recession 14% of the time. Most of the nine recessions stemmed from the credit-crunching effects of monetary tightening. The most recent tightening round won’t likely trigger a recession despite the “long and variable lag” often noted before the economy reacts to tightening. That’s because this tightening

Ed Yardeni
Jackie Doherty

Looking For Black Swans In September

Sep 3, 2024 3 min read paid

September has just started, and it is already living up to its reputation of being the toughest month of the year for stock prices which tumbled today during the first trading day of the month. So did commodity prices, led downward by oil and copper. The stock market selloff started when it opened and before August's weak M-PMI report was released at 10:00 a.m. EST, which

Ed Yardeni

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