Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 6/5/24

Jun 5, 2024 1 min read paid

Our economic and S&P 500 forecasts are underpinned by our forecasts for corporate revenues, earnings, and profit margins. We often compare them to industry analysts’ consensus estimates for S&P 500 companies in aggregate and how they change over time in response to earnings reports. Today, we illustrate this process by showing how data from Q1’s earnings season have fed into our own annual and forward

Ed Yardeni

Is The Fed Put Back?

Jun 4, 2024 3 min read paid

The financial markets seem to believe that the Fed Put is back. The recent batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators raised the number of expected 25bps cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) from 2 to 3 over the next 12 months (chart). That's according to the basis-point spread between the 12-month FFR futures and the actual FFR divided by 25bps. Investors must be confident that inflation is getting

Ed Yardeni

Goods Economy Still On The Ropes

Jun 3, 2024 3 min read paid

A growth recession is still rolling through the goods sector. Real consumer spending on goods has been flat at a record high since early 2022. We expect that spending on services, technology, and onshoring will keep the economy growing. There's still no stagflation or recession in our forecast. Today's M-PMI report was weaker-than-expected. That followed Friday's weaker-than-expected personal income report with spending on goods

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 3-7

Jun 2, 2024 2 min read paid

This week, May's employment report (Fri) is likely to be the most important one. We expect the labor market cooled a bit last month, tempering wage growth but not signaling a looming employment-led recession. Less profit margin pressure from wage inflation should boost company earnings, while the solid jobs market should continue to fuel consumer spending. If so, that's bullish for stocks. Here’s what we’

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Another Rollercoaster Ride.

Jun 2, 2024 3 min read paid

Friday was another wild ride on the S&P 500 rollercoaster. At first, stock prices rose after April's PCED inflation rate released at 8:30 am matched expectations. But then they dropped after a recessionary reading in May's Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer at 10:00 am (chart). The unexpected decrease in the business barometer partly reflected a steep drop in the new orders index,

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: US Economy Is Less Interest Rate Sensitive

May 31, 2024 6 min read paid

US Economy I. Banks Versus Nonbanks. The resilience of the US economy has been impressive over the past two years in the face of the Fed’s dramatic tightening of monetary policy. Nevertheless, there are still a few hardcore hard-landers predicting that the economy either is already in a recession or soon will be. They’re convinced that there are long and variable lags between restrictive monetary policy and its

Ed Yardeni

Housing Still In Rolling Recession

May 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Bonds Weighing On Stocks

May 29, 2024 2 min read paid

Yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that he wants to see "many more months of positive inflation data" before he's ready to cut rates. He also didn't rule out a hike. Fixed-income investors are starting to realize that this is the new party line from the Fed. Earlier this year, we argued that there was no reason for the Fed to rush

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/29/24

May 29, 2024 1 min read paid

Geopolitical events can shake up the stock market, sometimes providing buying opportunities. The current geopolitical landscape is unsettled and unsettling, with potentially seismic ramifications on several fronts and lots of uncertainties: Is Putin’s call for negotiations with Ukraine a nonstarter? Is it even real? Are US efforts at brokering peace in the Middle East progressing toward that end or is that notion wishful thinking? Does the heightened pitch of

Ed Yardeni

Sunny Economy, Gloomy Dispositions

May 28, 2024 2 min read paid

Inflation is the number one economic concern among consumers today. It's also moderated significantly since the summer of 2022; the prices of durable goods are even deflating a bit. The labor market remains strong, boosting consumer spending. Stocks are at all-time highs. Yet, according to a recently released Fed survey, only 22% of Americans think the US economy is in good or excellent shape, down from 50% before

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Magnificent One?

May 27, 2024 2 min read paid

Stock market pundits have been bemoaning the narrowness of the current bull market that started on October 12, 2022. It has been led by the Magnificent-7. Now the pundits are fretting that it is being led by just Nvidia, which is up 115.0% ytd versus 11.2% for the S&P 500 (chart). It is also significantly outperforming the Magnificent-6 so far this year. Nvidia is the only

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: May 28 - 31

May 27, 2024 3 min read

The economic indicators released during the shortened week ahead should confirm that economic growth remains solid and that inflation is continuing to moderate. Here's what we're watching this week: (1) PCED. The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model shows headline and core PCED rose 2.68% and 2.74% y/y (0.27% and 0.23% m/m) last month (chart). That would be the lowest

Ed Yardeni

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