Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 15-19

Jul 14, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will include updates on industrial production and business sales of goods, as well as retail sales. The upshot is likely to be another all-time high for June's Index of Coincident Indicators (Thu), as confirmed by S&P 500 forward earnings per share which climbed to another new record high during June (chart). When profits grow, the economy grows. During the current earnings reporting

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: A Positive Outlook For Q2 Earnings Reporting Season

Jul 12, 2024 4 min read paid

Joe has been tracking the quarterly earnings forecast for S&P 500 companies collectively each week since the series started in Q1-1994. The typical playbook: Industry analysts cut their estimates gradually until reality sets in during the final month of the quarter, when some companies warn of weaker results. The combination of falling forecasts for companies that have underperformed earlier expectations, steady forecasts for those holding good news close

Ed Yardeni

Disinflating CPI Broadens Market Rally As Investors Rotate To SMidCaps

Jul 11, 2024 2 min read paid

This morning, we weren't surprised by June's lower-than-expected CPI report. It does increase the odds of a cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) in September. That supports our expectation for the stock market rally to continue and broaden out from the Magnificent-7. Indeed, the Russell 2000 rose more than 3% this morning, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined as investors rotated into

Ed Yardeni

Meltup!

Jul 10, 2024 3 min read paid

We are raising our yearend target for the S&P 500 to 5800 from 5400. We are still targeting 8000 by the end of the decade. The stock market seems to be discounting our Roaring 2020s scenario faster than we expected. We've been among the most bullish investment strategists since November 2022, but not bullish enough. The bull market might continue to achieve our targets ahead of

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/10/24

Jul 10, 2024 1 min read paid

Signs that the Fed might lower the federal funds rate soon have sent stocks soaring, even though those signs were weak economic data. So the Fed Put is back. We’re concerned that the Fed might ease too soon, switching its mandate focus from inflation to unemployment. That could be a wrong move given the likelihoods that the soft patch won’t grow into a recession and that trade policies

Ed Yardeni

Banking on Looser Regulation

Jul 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Bank stocks popped today after Reuters reported that the Fed is considering relaxing a regulation, i.e., the GSIB Surcharge. It requires big banks to hold additional capital due to the systemic risk they pose to the global financial system. Tweaking the GSIB surcharge would free up big banks to lend more. The S&P 500 Financials stock price index had already been doing well. It is up 37.

Ed Yardeni

Giving Credit To The Consumer

Jul 8, 2024 2 min read paid

The strength of the US consumer has underpinned much of the current bull market in stocks. In recent months, rising real disposable income (DPI) has fueled consumer spending even as the excess saving accumulated during the pandemic was depleted. Debt service payments have remained below 10% of nominal DPI from Q1-2020 through Q4- 2023. That's relatively low because many households cleaned up their balance sheets following the Great

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Bull Market's Alleged Vulnerabilities

Jul 7, 2024 2 min read

The stock market's bull run since October 12, 2022 has raised some concerns lately. According to the naysayers, earnings growth expectations may be too high because there are mounting signs of an economic slowdown that might lead to an economic recession. The breadth of the stock market rally continues to narrow, which may be confirming that the underlying fundamental support for the bull market is narrowing. If the

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 8-12

Jul 7, 2024 3 min read paid

Last month, lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation readings for May, along with rising unemployment claims for June, raised market expectations that the Fed will ease monetary policy sooner rather than later. The week ahead will be dominated by inflation data and jobless claims that are likely to confirm that the economy is in a disinflationary soft patch. That could boost both stock and bond prices. Consider the following: (1) CPI.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: AI Hype Is Hyper

Jul 4, 2024 3 min read paid

Determining when an investment trend has run its course is more of an art than a science. While we love the productivity-enhancing possibilities that artificial intelligence (AI) offers, the AI phenomenon has many of the hallmarks of an inflating bubble. There are big bucks chasing the AI dream. New kings of industry have been crowned. And the hyperbole is flowing. Let’s take a look at some of the warning

Jackie Doherty
Ed Yardeni

Soft Patch Getting Softer. Is That Raising Odds of Fed Rate Cut in September & Stock Market Meltup?

Jul 3, 2024 3 min read paid

Last week and this week have been good ones for the recession camp of economists. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model's estimate of real GDP growth during Q2-2024 dropped from a robust 3.0% on June 26 to half as much today. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is the most negative it has been since August 2022 (chart). We are still in the soft-patch camp.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/3/24

Jul 3, 2024 1 min read paid

Personal consumption expenditures data for May suggest clear skies on both the inflation and income fronts: The PCED has been gliding steadily earthward and looks on course to reach the Fed’s 2.0% y/y destination for it by year-end. Consumer spending has been showing no sign of retrenchment, and consumption trends jibe with our rosy economic outlook. Moderating inflation with a robust economy argue against the Fed’s

Stephen Rybka
Ed Yardeni

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