Ed Yardeni

Fed Put Jolts Stocks To New Record High

Jul 2, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 jumped to a new record high of 5509 today on better-than-expected Tesla vehicle deliveries. In addition, today’s JOLTS report showed more job openings. Nevertheless, two Fed officials suggested today that the Fed Put is back because they are worried that the Fed might cause job losses if monetary policy stays too tight for too long. Their dovish comments reinforced expectations that the Fed will

Ed Yardeni

Treasuries Anticipating Trump 2.0?

Jul 1, 2024 3 min read paid

Long-term US government bond prices fell sharply since the presidential debate on Thursday evening. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.29% on Thursday afternoon to 4.48% today, the highest level since May 31 (chart). That was in spite of the lowest y/y print for the personal consumption expenditures deflator (PCED) since March 2021 on Friday and another sub 50.0 report for the M-PMI on Monday. We

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Is The Stock Market Hazardous?

Jun 30, 2024 2 min read paid

The stock market rose to another record high last week. It has been doing so in recent weeks led by fewer sectors and fewer stocks. The S&P 500 market-cap-weighted stock price index has significantly outperformed the equal-weighted index in recent weeks (chart). Many technicians warn that this could be a bearish sign in the short-run if the leaders experience a correction. An alternative scenario we favor is that

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 1-5

Jun 30, 2024 2 min read paid

We know there will be fireworks on July 4th. The question is whether we should expect any blasts or just fizzling sounds during the week ahead related to the economy and the labor market. The holiday-shortened week will be jampacked with employment indicators. We aren't expecting any big surprises: (1) Payroll employment. We expect that June's employment report (Fri) will show payrolls rose by 150,000

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Charging Bull

Jun 29, 2024 7 min read paid

Strategy I: Hoof Marks. Even the bulls are getting trampled by the bull market in stocks. Many investment strategists are scrambling to raise their targets for the S&P 500. At the end of 2022, we predicted that the index would increase 20% from 3839 to 4600 by the end of 2023. It got there by the end of July of that year. We stuck to our target as

Ed Yardeni

Another Soft Patch

Jun 27, 2024 3 min read paid

The economy has experienced neither a hard landing nor a soft landing since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in March 2022. It has experienced a few rolling recessions in industries like housing and retailing, which spurred soft patches in overall economic growth. The economy may be going through another soft patch, as evidenced by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which has been modestly negative since May 3 (chart). After

Ed Yardeni

Rate Cuts This Year Unlikely As Fed Gets Closer To 2.0% Target

Jun 26, 2024 3 min read paid

We still expect that the Fed's preferred core PCED inflation measure will fall to the Fed's 2.0% target by the end of this year (chart). It was already down to 2.8% y/y in April. May's number will be released on Friday, and should show further progress. We don't see the Fed cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) this year,

Ed Yardeni

Confidence Survey Shows Jobs Are Still Relatively Plentiful

Jun 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The first available monthly indicator of the labor market is the "jobs plentiful" series in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey. Today, June's reading showed that 38.1% of respondents said so (chart). That's a slight uptick from May, and a relatively high reading. The "jobs hard to get response" ticked down to 14.1%, which is a very low reading. The

Ed Yardeni

Technology Now & Then

Jun 24, 2024 3 min read paid

Are stock market valuations too high? There is no obvious answer to the valuation question. So we are dependent on history for some guidance. We don’t have to go very far back in time to find a meltup that looks similar to the current one. The obvious analogy is to that of the late 1990s: (1) Valuation multiples, now & then. The S&P 500 peaked at a

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 24-28

Jun 23, 2024 3 min read paid

The key indicator everyone's watching this week is May's PCED (Fri). We expect the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will continue to show progress toward its 2.0% target. The labor market may also take center stage this week. If weekly jobless claims (Thu) increase sharply after falling 5,000 to 238,000 in the June 15 week, the 10-year Treasury yield would likely dip

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bad Breadth Again

Jun 23, 2024 3 min read

The stock market has a bad breadth problem again. For a while, it seemed to be attributable to the outperformance of the Magnificent-7. Many other stocks performed well, but not as well as the Mag-7. More recently, the outperformance seems to be narrowing to the Magnificent One, i.e., Nvidia (chart). Technical analysts are warning that this development increases the risks of a selloff in the market led by technology

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Winning Streaks Usually Don't Last Forever

Jun 21, 2024 10 min read paid

TAMED I: Technical Analysis Of Macro Economic Data. Over the past two years, the hard landers had innumerable theories and charts to explain why higher interest rates would undoubtedly plunge the economy into a recession. Now, the diehard hard landers are again insisting that their long-held recession call will be proven correct soon. Others among them say we’re already in a recession. So far, these forecasts have been wrong.

Ed Yardeni

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