Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Widely Feared Phantom Recession Is Over

Oct 14, 2024 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our October 7, 2024 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. It was written after the release of September's blowout employment report on Friday, October 4. Pagliacci (Clowns, 1892) is an opera in a prologue and two acts with music and libretto by Ruggero Leoncavallo. The play tells the tragedy of a jealous husband and his wife in a commedia dell'arte theatre company. At

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 14-18

Oct 13, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will likely confirm that consumer spending continues to shine, while manufacturing production remains lackluster. Meanwhile, as earnings season kicks off with the S&P 500 at a record high and valuations relatively stretched, the onus will be on company managements to deliver better-than-expected earnings, which should be relatively easy since expectations are low. As earnings surprises turned increasingly negative during the summer, so

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Happy Second Birthday To The Young Bull!

Oct 13, 2024 2 min read

The S&P 500's latest bull market turned two-years old on Saturday. It started on October 12, 2022. Sentiment was extremely bearish back then (chart). There were widespread fears of a recession caused by the tightening of monetary policy. Those fears lingered through October 4 of this year, when a stronger-than-expected employment report once again confirmed that the young bull correctly discounted that inflation

Ed Yardeni

Powell Is Too Dovish

Oct 10, 2024 3 min read paid

The monetary policy hawks may be coming home to roost at the Fed's November 6-7 meeting. September's CPI was hotter-than-expected, thanks to sticky services inflation. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the other doves on the Federal Open Market Committee who worried about a weakening economy have less credibility since Friday's jobs report showed the unemployment rate fell further and payrolls

Ed Yardeni

Break Out The Bubbly: Lots Of New Record Highs

Oct 9, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at records today. Leading the charge were technology stocks. Bank stocks also performed well. At the beginning of September, we wrote: "We are hard pressed to find what could possibly go wrong in September. So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher." We wrote the same at the start of October.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/9/24

Oct 9, 2024 1 min read paid

It takes a lot to kill an economic expansion, often a credit crisis during periods of Fed tightening that escalates into a credit crunch and a recession. The latest tightening has ended, and that didn’t happen. Now the latest batch of strong economic data should finally lay to rest the diehard hard-landers’ recession warnings. It should also cast doubt on whether the Fed needed to ease at all

Ed Yardeni

Larry & Ray’s Not-So Excellent Adventure in China is Over

Oct 8, 2024 3 min read paid

Both Blackrock's Larry Fink and Bridgewater's Ray Dalio have been notable and vocal China bulls for several years. It seems they've both joined our camp in recent days, issuing caution against investing in China as it supports Russia's war against Ukraine and becomes less favorable to capitalism. They should have placed their bets on stock markets in democracies such as the United

Ed Yardeni

The Oscar For The Best Leading Economic Indicator

Oct 7, 2024 3 min read paid

There have been numerous misleading economic indicators signaling a recession since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in early 2022. Among the worst have been the inverting yield curve and then the disinverting yield curve. And, of course, there's the falling Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which is long overdue for a product recall. On the other hand, S&P 500 operating forward earnings has been

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Back To Higher For Longer?

Oct 6, 2024 2 min read

Remember the "higher for longer" mantra about the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) during the spring? It turned into "lower and sooner" this summer in response to the economy's soft patch. After Friday's strong employment report, the consensus might pivot to "no rush to ease further" during the fall. We can't rule out "higher for

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: No Hard Feelings

Oct 6, 2024 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our September 30, 2024 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. It was written before the release of September's blowout employment report on Friday, October 4. US Economy I: Permabulls Versus Permabears. ]Some of our best friends are permabears. They are smart economists and strategists who tend to be bearish. We look to them for a thorough analysis of what could go wrong for the economy

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 7-11

Oct 6, 2024 3 min read paid

This week's inflation indicators should show that it continues to moderate toward the Fed's 2.0% target. Also, this week's initial unemployment claims (Thu) will be for the same week that October's payroll employment report will reflect. That should provide a sense of how Hurricane Helene (and some workers' strikes) might have impacted the next monthly jobs report. Of course, we

Ed Yardeni

Big Employment Increase Puts Recession Story to Bed

Oct 4, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's payroll employment report for September and upward revisions for July and August were much stronger than the consensus expected. We weren't surprised. They should bury the looming recession scenario. Stock futures immediately surged, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 10bps to 3.95%, and the dollar moved higher. As we previously observed, the Fed's 50bps cut in the federal funds rate on

Ed Yardeni

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