Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Rally Broadening As Economy Chugs Along

Nov 21, 2024 3 min read

Fed officials may be cutting rates because they are worrying about the ominous "long and variable lags" of their monetary policy tightening from March 2022 through August 2024. But there are still no signs that those lags exist as the economy continues to chug along. It's true that the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fell yet again during October, but it has been a misleading

Ed Yardeni

To Infinity & Beyond: Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors & Nvidia

Nov 20, 2024 3 min read paid

In recent decades, the Digital Revolution has eclipsed the Industrial Revolution. Today, AI is a technology that has evolved from this relatively new revolution. AI simply represents another leap forward in data processing. During the 1950s through the 1970s, IBM mainframe computers processed data. The baton was passed to minicomputers sold by Digital Equipment in the 1970s. During the 1990s, desktop PCs manufactured by Compaq and Dell proliferated. Amazon Web

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/20/24

Nov 20, 2024 1 min read paid

The US Constitution was designed to promote gridlock. But the benefits of gridlock are undermined by lawmakers’ spending freely because the Constitution lacks a balanced budget requirement. … Gridlock is good for investing, but the stock market tends to do well no matter who is in the White House. Trump’s proposals—representing a radical change from Biden’s policies—are likely to materialize because he won a clean sweep. Today,

Ed Yardeni

An Earnings-Led Meltup For Stocks?

Nov 19, 2024 3 min read paid

We are often asked if the current bull market in stocks has turned into a meltup that could soon be followed by a meltdown. That's a risk we currently give a 25% subjective probability. Relatively high stock valuations are the main worry for many investors (chart). However, our bullish outlook for strong productivity-led economic growth means that earnings rather than valuations can lead the market higher. Coupled

Ed Yardeni

Small, Medium, and Large Cap Stocks

Nov 18, 2024 2 min read paid

The rally in the S&P 1500 has certainly broadened in recent weeks as the Fed started to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 and again on November 7 by 25bps. The S&P 400 MidCaps and S&P 600 SmallCaps have been rising in record high territory in recent weeks along with the S&P 500 which has been rising

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 18-22

Nov 17, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead will provide important updates of housing and manufacturing indicators. The latter should show that economic growth may be broadening to include the goods sector, which has been relatively flat since the Fed started raising interest rates. Since the start of the bull market, we've been recommending overweighting the following cyclical sectors S&P 500 Information Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, and Energy (chart). We

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Powell's Latest Pirouette

Nov 17, 2024 3 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is an accomplished danseur. His pirouette's are masterful. He did another such pivot on Friday in prepared remarks for a speech [starts at 19:00] to business leaders in Dallas. He said that, "the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." That's what we've been saying since Powell

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: S&P 500 Earnings In The Roaring 2020s

Nov 15, 2024 5 min read paid

Strategy I: Roaring Ahead In Sunday’s QuickTakes, Eric, Joe, and I raised our outlook for S&P 500 earnings as well as our price targets for the index. We did so because we believe that Trump 2.0 represents a major regime change from Biden 1.0 (or was that Obama 3.0?). The corporate tax rate will be lowered from 21% to 15%. Personal income from tips,

Ed Yardeni

Trump 2.0 Supercharges Our Stay Home Investment Strategy

Nov 14, 2024 3 min read paid

We've been bullish on the dollar for a while. Since, the Fed's September 18 meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 5.8% (chart). Roughly half of that move has occurred since last Tuesday's US elections. The strong dollar confirms our view that the Fed has already cut the federal funds rate too much too soon, and now likely won’t be lowering

Ed Yardeni

Sticky Landing For Inflation?

Nov 13, 2024 3 min read paid

Today's CPI report suggests that inflation may be getting stuck north of the Fed's 2.0% target. The headline and core CPI inflation rates rose 2.6% and 3.3% y/y during October. Goods prices are still deflating. But supercore inflation, rent inflation, and wage growth all rose last month suggesting they are getting sticky at relatively high rates. This along with strong economic growth

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/13/24

Nov 13, 2024 1 min read paid

Something’s amiss with Fed Chair Powell’s explanation for lowering the federal fund rate a second time in two months despite an economy he admits is performing remarkably well. He tied the rationale for the move to the theoretical “neutral FFR,” implying that monetary policy needs to be less restrictive to reach that point, even though that point is intrinsically unknowable. Also implied was that the related risks are

Ed Yardeni

From Election Uncertainty To Policy Uncertainty

Nov 12, 2024 3 min read paid

The NFIB survey of small business owners was released today showing a record high in their uncertainty index during October (chart). That's not surprising since the polls showed that the presidential race was too close to call, raising the prospect of a contested election. The same happened prior to the previous two elections. The uncertainty index will undoubtedly fall when November's survey is released. However, it

Ed Yardeni

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