Ed Yardeni

July was Red Hot

Jul 31, 2023 2 min read paid

July was hotter than usual. We aren't referring to the weather but rather to the 3.1% increase in the S&P 500. That compares to an average increase of 1.7% for the month since 1928, with an average gain of 4.9% for the 58 up years and an average 3.2% loss during the 38 down years (chart). So it is fair to say

Ed Yardeni

Dow Theory On Bullish Track

Jul 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 closed at the bull market's high of 4582.22 on Friday. Chart technicians continue to ring the alarm bells. The index is 11.9% above its 200-dma, which is 4094.1 (chart). Sentiment is too bullish. Breadth is too narrow. Valuations are stretched. The bears are capitulating. Run for the hills! Yet, last week, the Dow Theory flashed a bright green signal. That&

Ed Yardeni

The Bull Deserves A Rest

Jul 27, 2023 2 min read

The bull market's winning streak ended today. The Dow closed higher for 13 straight sessions through Wednesday, its longest series of positive closes since 1987. It was down 0.67% today. The Dow's longest-ever winning streak was 14 sessions, set in 1897, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P 500 closed at 4537.41 today after hitting a bull market intraday

Ed Yardeni

The Urge To Merge

Jul 26, 2023 2 min read paid

When the banking crisis occurred during March, we concluded that the Fed's emergency liquidity response would contain the problem. We predicted that investors soon would be scrambling to determine which regional banks might be acquired rather than worrying about which of them might be seized by banking regulators. We argued that the higher costs of regulation that would soon be imposed on the smaller banks would force the

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/26/23

Jul 26, 2023 1 min read paid

The urban office real estate niche of the commercial real estate market is increasingly distressed owing to the work-from-home trend escalated by Covid. But the problem is contained to the office districts of big cities, and we expect the fallout to be contained too: Sellers of distressed properties will take losses but find buyers, exposed banks will further increase loan loss provisions, increased M&A activity among small banks

Ed Yardeni

Global Economy Is In A Soft Landing

Jul 26, 2023 1 min read

The flash S&P global PMIs for July suggest that the global economy continues to avoid a hard landing, while falling into a soft landing. That's a relatively bullish scenario for stocks and bonds since it suggests that inflation should continue to moderate around the world allowing the major global central banks to stop tightening their monetary policies. Let’s review the data: (1) US PMIs. The

Ed Yardeni

July's Consumer Confidence Up As Jobs Remain Plentiful

Jul 25, 2023 1 min read paid

Among the earliest monthly indicators of the US jobs market is the consumer confidence survey conducted by the Conference Board. July’s survey came out on Tuesday. The Consumer Confidence Index rose smartly this month, with solid gains in both its current conditions and expectations components (chart). Furthermore, consider the following: (1) The survey’s “jobs plentiful” series edged up to 46.9% (chart). That’s down from readings of

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Recession Rolling Over Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

Jul 24, 2023 2 min read paid

The rolling recession is rolling over the commercial real estate market (CRE), especially the market for urban office buildings. In our opinion, the challenges facing that market are serious but shouldn’t cause an economy-wide credit crunch and a recession. The Fed’s May 2023 Financial Stability Report included a review of the CRE credit market. The report observes: “The shift toward telework in many industries has dramatically reduced demand

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Quantum Leaps

Jul 24, 2023 2 min read paid

Artificial Intelligence is just one of several technological innovations that are likely to drive the economy during the Roaring 2020s. The promise of quantum computing—and what humans can accomplish with such vast amounts of computing power—makes scientists giddy. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and IBM are leading the race to develop these computers and offer access to them in the cloud. Here are some recent developments in the area: (1)

Ed Yardeni
Jackie Doherty

Market Call: Hot But Sunny

Jul 23, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market may be too hot, but the outlook for the economy remains sunny. There are signs that the hottest sectors of the market may be starting to cool off a bit, while the coolest sectors are warming up. It's time for the laggards to be leaders for a while. In other words, Information Technology and Communication Services stocks might chill, while Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 24-28

Jul 23, 2023 2 min read paid

The Fed is widely expected to hike the federal funds rate (FFR) on Wednesday by 25bps to a range of 5.25%-5.50%. Will that be restrictive enough for the Fed? Will that be the terminal rate? At his presser on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to say: "Maybe, maybe not." He will acknowledge that inflation is still moderating even though

Ed Yardeni

Time To Rotate The Tires & The Portfolio?

Jul 20, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell 0.68% and the Nasdaq 100 lost 2.28% today on disappointing earnings calls from Tesla and Netflix. They also weighed on the S&P 500 Information Technology sector, which was down 2.0%. Neither Tesla or Netflix is a technology company according to S&P. Tesla is in the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector (down 3.4% today), while

Ed Yardeni

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July was Red Hot

Dow Theory On Bullish Track

The Bull Deserves A Rest

The Urge To Merge

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/26/23

Global Economy Is In A Soft Landing

July's Consumer Confidence Up As Jobs Remain Plentiful

Rolling Recession Rolling Over Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

DEEP DIVE: Quantum Leaps

Market Call: Hot But Sunny

The Economic Week Ahead: July 24-28

Time To Rotate The Tires & The Portfolio?