Ed Yardeni

Listening To The Markets

Feb 18, 2023 2 min read paid

On a regular basis, we all need to listen to the markets. They process a tremendous amount of information. They reflect the opinions of lots of buyers and sellers. Their price action can tell us a great deal about the economy, financial conditions, and sentiment. Joe Feshbach helps us to do just that based on his 40+ years trading the financial markets. He had expected that the S&P

Ed Yardeni

Loose Fed Lips Sink Stocks & Bonds

Feb 16, 2023 2 min read paid

Stock and bond prices fell today as two none-voting FOMC participants (Bullard & Mester) suggested that higher-for-longer interest rates will be necessary to bring down inflation. They were reacting to the latest batch of economic indicators confirming that the labor market is tight, consumers are still spending, and inflation may not be falling fast enough. January's PPI, released this morning, rose 0.7% m/m. That was above

Ed Yardeni

Foreigners Buying Lots of US Bonds

Feb 15, 2023 1 min read paid

Foreigners purchased a record $1.6 trillion in US securities over the 12 months through December (chart). That's an impressive US net capital inflow that was generally bullish for the dollar last year and offset the Fed's QT paring of its bond portfolio. Net foreign purchases of US bonds totaled a record $1.2 trillion last year as follows: Treasury notes & bonds ($927 billion), Government

Ed Yardeni

Born To Shop & Fly

Feb 15, 2023 1 min read

We aren't that surprised by the 3.0% m/m jump in retail sales reported today. When January's employment data were released, we calculated our Earned Income Proxy for private wages and salaries in personal income (chart). It soared 1.5% m/m as the average workweek jumped 0.9%, payrolls increased 0.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3%. American consumers are doing what

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/13/23

Feb 15, 2023 1 min read

Perversely, the financial markets’ vote of confidence in the Fed’s ability to subdue inflation without getting the economy into trouble represents a threat to those very efforts, in Fed officials’ eyes, loosening financial conditions as the Fed tightens them. So Fed officials have been trying to squelch investor optimism. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Still Too High But Gliding Down

Feb 14, 2023 2 min read paid

January’s CPI release today showed that inflation is continuing to moderate, though perhaps more slowly than it did during the second half of 2022. The headline and core CPI rose 6.4% y/y and 5.6% through January down from 6.5% and 5.7% during December (chart). The CPI for all consumer goods rose 4.5% y/y in January, down from 4.8% in December and

Ed Yardeni

Improving Outlook for Global Economy

Feb 13, 2023 1 min read paid

While the US economic outlook has been a source of dissention since early last year, few disagreed last summer that both Europe and China would be in recessions by now. Europe was expected to go dark and freeze during the winter months because of a shortage of natural gas resulting from Russia’s attack on Ukraine. China’s recession was expected to result from the government’s zero-Covid lockdowns. Instead,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 13-17

Feb 12, 2023 2 min read paid

Financial markets are likely to be action packed this week because the economic calendar is jampacked with key economic indicators that will impact the debate about both the economic and inflation outlooks, and their impact on Fed policy. The inflation action starts on Monday with January's FRBNY consumer inflationary expectations survey likely to show some more moderation in the one-year ahead series (chart). January's CPI (Tue)

Ed Yardeni

January's CPI Is Coming. Run For The Hills?

Feb 11, 2023 2 min read paid

The big event this week will be January's CPI release on Tuesday. Bond yields rose and stock prices fell last week as investors started anticipating a bad print. The Cleveland Fed provides a daily model-based Inflation Nowcast. On February 10, it showed the headline and core indexes increasing 0.65% and 0.46% last month. These are high compared to the MarketWatch consensus of 0.4% and 0.

Ed Yardeni

In Government We Trust

Feb 10, 2023 2 min read

Over the past 12 months through January, the federal budget deficit totaled "only" $1.6 trillion. That's down from over $4.0 trillion during the pandemic, but it has been widening again in recent months (chart). The bond market rarely reacts to the Treasury's monthly deficit release. That's remarkable considering that the Fed stopped buying and rolling over maturing Treasury securities last

Ed Yardeni

Join Me As My Guest In NYC With A Special Valentine's Day Discount

Feb 10, 2023 2 min read

I’m incredibly excited about an upcoming opportunity for you and I to meet personally, talk investing strategies, and answer any in-depth questions you might have (not to mention I can save you $200 in the process)! Specifically, I am speaking at MoneyShow’s landmark Global Portfolio Strategy Summit. It runs from Feb. 19-21, 2023 at the New York Marriott at the Brooklyn Bridge, and it’s going to be

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Who Will Win the AI Search Arms Race?

Feb 9, 2023 4 min read paid

This week, both Microsoft and Google made announcements touting their artificial intelligence (AI) prowess and plans as they battle to dominate the nascent AI niche, which some believe will be as important as the iPhone or cloud computing. Of course, they’re not alone. Venture capitalists poured money into the more than 75 startups, by some counts, that aspire to conquer the hot area. Let’s look at what some

Ed Yardeni

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Listening To The Markets

Loose Fed Lips Sink Stocks & Bonds

Foreigners Buying Lots of US Bonds

Born To Shop & Fly

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/13/23

Inflation Still Too High But Gliding Down

Improving Outlook for Global Economy

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 13-17

January's CPI Is Coming. Run For The Hills?

In Government We Trust

Join Me As My Guest In NYC With A Special Valentine's Day Discount

DEEP DIVE: Who Will Win the AI Search Arms Race?