Elias Griepentrog

DEEP DIVE: We Still Expect a 2026 Rate Hike

Jul 20, 2026 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our July 20, 2026 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. Right before the release of the June CPI report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller used notably hawkish rhetoric in his latest public address. He stated that if June’s core CPI was hot, the FOMC would need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. That prompted traders to increase their bets that the FOMC might

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Consumers Singing, "Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now!

Jul 16, 2026 4 min read paid

"Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now" is a 1979 disco song performed by R&B duo McFadden & Whitehead. American consumers agree. For a long time now, their doubters warned that a low savings rate, flatlining real disposable income, rising consumer debt, and mounting affordability challenges would force households to retrench. Instead, they continue to do what they do best, namely shop! A well-balanced

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Too Much Complacency?

Jul 15, 2026 5 min read paid

Our Roaring 2020s thesis holds that the demand side of real GDP remains supported by resilient consumer spending and robust business investment. On the supply side, tech-led productivity is boosting real GDP, while keeping a lid on inflation. Now that the economy has proven its mettle over the first seven years of the decade, it should continue to do so over the remaining three years of the Roaring 2020s.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Refreshingly Cool CPI Inflation Report Must Please Warsh

Jul 14, 2026 4 min read paid

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds rate (FFR) at its July 28-29 meeting? Foggetaboutit! Today's CPI inflation report was surprisingly subdued across the board. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target, so the FOMC is likely to maintain its tightening stance, which was adopted in June. However, after the latest inflation report, there is no rush for the FOMC to act, contrary to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Captain America: Guardian Of The Strait!

Jul 13, 2026 4 min read paid

MOU is DOA. The memorandum of (mis)understanding between the US and Iran is dead on arrival. Act II of the latest Gulf War is underway after a brief interlude. President Donald Trump declared today that the United States will be known as "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT." He announced that the US is reinstating its naval blockade on Iran and plans to enforce a 20% fee

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

June FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed's Hawkish Pivot

Jul 9, 2026 4 min read

I. Sentiment The S&P 500 first rose above 7,500 on May 14. It has continued to fluctuate around there since then. This may be a sign that investors are a bit fatigued from all the commotion about the Strait of Hormuz, AI, earnings, Warsh, the Magnificent-7, semiconductors, FOMO, and FEMO so far this year. The market might continue to fluctuate around 7,500 over the rest

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

War! What Is It Good For?

Jul 8, 2026 3 min read

The 1970 song "War! What Is It Good For?" was performed by the Temptations on an album and by Edwin Starr as a single. The song's answer to the question is "Absolutely nothing!" The powerful lyrics include: "It ain't nothing but a heartbreaker / Friend only to the undertaker, woo!" Financial market history shows that geopolitical crises, including wars, often have

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Booming AI Imports Depressing US GDP, Though Not Final Sales

Jul 7, 2026 4 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q2-2026 real GDP growth at just 1.4% (saar). That's because net exports (i.e., exports minus imports) dragged it down by 1.3 ppt. During the quarter, AI-related imports increased sharply, outpacing the large increase in US exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The picture is brighter below the headline number. Real final sales to private

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh's Sintra Serenade To The Bond Vigilantes

Jul 1, 2026 4 min read paid

The temperature was 81 degrees in Sintra, Portugal, today. Tomorrow it will be 101 degrees. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke on a panel in Sintra today. He was cool as a cucumber. This was his second public appearance since his first press conference as the new Fed chair on June 17. Back then, he was surprisingly hawkish, stressing that he and his colleagues on the FOMC are committed to restoring

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Well-Balanced US Labor Market

Jun 30, 2026 4 min read paid

The stock prices of ADP, Paychex, and ManpowerGroup sold off sharply last year as hiring cooled. Employers froze their headcounts as they assessed the impacts of Trump's tariffs and of AI technologies on their businesses (chart). On May 8, we wrote that the labor market was showing early signs of improvement and that employment-related stocks may have bottomed. So far, so good. Employers now seem to have

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh Taking Hawkish Path to Lower Interest Rates

Jun 29, 2026 4 min read paid

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has often said that the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee should talk publicly less often. He wants the Fed to follow the financial markets rather than the other way around. Yet, two weeks after his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, June 17, he is scheduled to appear on a policy panel on Wednesday, July 1, at the annual ECB Forum on

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Fed Still Has An Inflation Problem Despite Plunging Oil Prices

Jun 25, 2026 4 min read paid

The FOMC’s policy stance is determined by the balance of risks to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. In the current environment, those risks remain firmly skewed toward inflation, justifying last week's FOMC pivot from an easing bias to a tightening one. Today's plethora of May economic data shows that the economy and the labor market are in great shape, while both

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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