Elias Griepentrog

AI Scare Raises Growth Fears and Lowers Bond Yields

Oct 15, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Treasury Yields US Treasury yields fell sharply today, extending Wednesday's retreat from intraday highs. The 10-year yield dropped 9bps to 5.10%, while the 30-year fell 10bps to 5.43% (chart). Even the 2-year yield declined slightly to 4.77% (chart). Remarkably, this broad-based decline occurred despite two hotter-than-expected inflation reports. Normally, such surprises would push Treasury yields higher as investors

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Continue To Proceed With Caution

Oct 14, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Risk Off Is Back On September 15, we advised our readers to "Proceed With Caution." We postponed our year-end S&P 500 target of 8,400 to mid-2027. Our concern isn't earnings; it's stock valuations. We remain bullish on the economy and earnings, expecting no recession through the end of the decade in 2029. Accordingly, we haven’t lowered our

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is FEMO Too Concentrated?

Oct 13, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Stocks: Happy Fourth Anniversary! Yesterday marked the fourth anniversary of the stock market bull run. The S&P 500 is up 118.3% since it began. The bull market has survived the pandemic, global supply-chain disruptions, rebounding inflation, two oil price shocks, a significant round of Fed rate hikes, soaring bond yields, a financial crisis, Trump's tariffs, and two wars. It has also survived concerns

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Sizing Up US Debt

Oct 12, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Adding It Up The bond market had a good day today: It was closed for Columbus Day. We think that yields have risen high enough to attract buyers. If so, then yields should stabilize around current levels. Plenty could still go wrong, making bond yields even more attractive. The war in the Middle East is likely to heat up again after the midterm elections, sending oil prices higher. On

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 12-16

Oct 11, 2026 4 min read

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic data front, but the indicators released pointed to continued economic strength. ADP weekly payroll gains increased for the fifth consecutive week, reaching a three-month high, while jobless claims fell to multi-year lows. The ISM NM-PMI remained solid at 54.9 in September, though its prices paid component jumped to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Redbook same-store

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Lots Of FEMO In Q3's Earnings Reporting Season

Oct 8, 2026 4 min read paid

I. FEMO in Q3 We have spent much of the past few months marveling at Corporate America's Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO). S&P 500 earnings per share growth approached 30% y/y in Q1 and accelerated to more than 50% in Q2, although unusually large mark-to-market investment gains boosted both figures. Even excluding those gains, earnings grew roughly 20% and 25%, respectively. Q2 also marked

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Bond Yield Spectrum

Oct 7, 2026 5 min read paid

I. From The Good To The Bad To The Ugly The spectrum of explanations for the rise in bond yields worldwide includes relatively benign ones to downright dangerous ones (chart). On the good side of the spectrum, better-than-expected economic growth has driven US bond yields up to levels that are back to normal. On the ugly side, soaring bond yields in France are signaling a looming debt crisis.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

2028 Should Be A Good Year

Oct 6, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Blue skies ahead for earnings? We are now seven years into our Roaring 2020s thesis, which remains our base case for the rest of the decade, and it has played out very well so far. When we first introduced the idea in August 2020, the prospect of another Roaring '20s sounded a bit delusional. We argued that, as in the 1920s, rapidly proliferating technologies would drive a productivity

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

In Praise Of Profits

Oct 5, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Profits, Cash Flow & Capital Spending Corporate profits are the economy's lifeblood. As Dr. Ed explains in his 2021 book, In Praise of Profits, profits are not merely a reward for economic success; they also drive the economy. Strong profits give businesses both the incentive and the financial means to expand, generating the cash flow needed to invest in capital, hire workers, and pursue new opportunities. At

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Thanks For The Memories

Oct 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Micron and the AI Trade Memory has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI spending boom. Micron’s stock, for example, is up 273.2% ytd, second only to SanDisk among the semiconductor companies. We have been bullish on memory, and Micron’s fiscal Q4-2026 results reinforced our view. Revenue surged 379% y/y to a record $54.2 billion, above the $50.8 billion consensus.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst
Elias Griepentrog

Optimistic Spin: Bond Market Pricing Better-Than-Expected Economic Growth

Sep 30, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields rose yet again today even though September's PCED inflation report showed some improvement, which was due mostly to new measurement procedures. Inflation remains about a percentage point above the Fed's 2.0% target. Other economic indicators today confirmed that the economy and the labor market are doing very well and strengthened the case for more Fed rate hikes. Yesterday's dovish suggestion by

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Prospect of Accelerating Wage Growth In A Strong Economy

Sep 29, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Is Wage Growth Accelerating? Wage growth signals labor market conditions. Just as shortages of goods tend to push prices higher, worker shortages tend to push wages higher. When labor demand outstrips labor supply, employers must compete more aggressively for workers, resulting in faster wage growth. Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell's framework for assessing labor-market tightness compares labor demand, using the sum of household employment plus job

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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