Elias Griepentrog

The Fed's Divide: Will Core PCED Settle The Debate?

Aug 13, 2026 4 min read paid

The FOMC is divided between a hawkish and an owlish camp. The hawks include Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, all of whom dissented at the July FOMC meeting in favor of a rate hike. Logan argues that policy is no longer restraining the economy. Hammack recently said that "now is the time to act" and that the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

July CPI: The Fed Is Still In The Woods

Aug 12, 2026 4 min read paid

The July CPI report was good news for Fed officials and the rest of us. Inflation is moving closer to the Fed's 2.0% target. However, the inflation picture may not be as bright as the CPI report suggests. New York Fed President John Williams recently said that if core PCED inflation readings remain above 0.2% m/m during the second half of this year, then the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

People Close To Warsh Are Talking About Him

Aug 6, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Fed Today's Financial Times ran an exclusive story about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It is based on insights provided by unidentified people close to him. They say that he admits that he has made some mistakes, "including failing to reinforce his key messages on price stability." In our opinion, he has been unequivocal about his commitment to restore price stability. He just hasn'

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Is Fine & The Fed Should Be Turning More Hawkish

Aug 5, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Macro The economy's two most important engines of economic growth, consumer spending and business investment, are booming. In Q2-2026 real GDP, consumption expenditures increased 3.3% (saar) and nonresidential fixed investments jumped 8.4%. The headline and core GDP deflators, the most comprehensive measures of economy-wide inflation, rose 4.3% y/y and 3.8% (chart). Fed officials should be turning hawkish. Recent Q2 earnings

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stock Market's Summer Stall Is Over Thanks To The ‘OK Economy’ & FEMO

Aug 4, 2026 5 min read paid

In an interview with CNBC, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and Iran could reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz to "freedom of movement" as soon as "today or tomorrow." Following his remarks—alongside reports of ongoing regional mediation via Qatar and Oman—crude oil prices dropped significantly. Brent crude fell below $80/barrel. The US Treasury yield curve edged lower

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Missions Impossible: The War, The Fed & The Yen

Aug 3, 2026 4 min read paid

In Mission: Impossible, Ethan Hunt is always given a nearly impossible mission to accomplish. The objective is crystal clear, the deadline is urgent, and a plan is quickly formulated to achieve the mission. Like Hunt, President Donald Trump, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have clear missions. Their plans for accomplishing these missions are less clear. Despite these uncertainties, the S&P 500 rose today to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Is Still Flying

Jul 30, 2026 4 min read paid

The latest batch of economic data suggests that the US economy remains in remarkably good shape. Domestic demand is strong, and the labor market continues to show resilience. Inflation isn't as picture-perfect. While June's PCED report provided some welcome relief, recent inflation shocks may spread in coming months. They include another round of tariffs, the AI building boom, high energy prices, and supply-chain disruptions.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh Fails First Credibility Test: Bond Vigilantes Want More Than Hawkish Squawks

Jul 29, 2026 4 min read paid

Fed officials just won't listen to us! We warned them that the economy didn't need the four cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) at the end of 2024. The Bond Vigilantes agreed with us and pushed the 10-year Treasury bond yield up by 100bps at the time (chart). The same happened late last year. The Fed lowered the FFR three times. The bond yield

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflation Risks Still Outweigh Labor Market Risks

Jul 28, 2026 4 min read paid

All eyes are on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Markets expect the Fed's monetary policy committee to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with the CME FedWatch assigning roughly a 70% probability to no change and a 30% probability to a 25bps rate hike. Investors will be closely watching the FOMC statement, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, and the degree

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

AI Capex Boom Continues to Boost US Economic Growth

Jul 27, 2026 4 min read Premium Member tier

I. On Industrials Investors are suffering from AI fatigue. They've concluded that there is no way to estimate whether all the capital spending on AI infrastructure will generate good ROIs in the coming years. What they do know is that hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent on AI capex in the here and now. That explains why S&P 500 Industrials is the second-best-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Apocalypse Now! Or, TACO Now?

Jul 23, 2026 5 min read paid

(1) Geopolitics. President Donald Trump said he is weighing a “massive attack” on Iran. The Pentagon is flooding the Middle East with elite troops, fighter jets, and combat medics. “I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than anything we have ever had before. I am close to making a decision. We are fully prepared for it,” the president told Israel’s Channel 12 on Thursday. The US military on Tuesday

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Choke Points & Other Concerns Causing The Stock Market's Summer Stall

Jul 22, 2026 4 min read paid

At the start of last month, we predicted a June swoon in the S&P 500. Now it's looking more like a summer stall as the index has been marking time around 7,500 since May 14. We still expect the index to reach 8,250 by year-end. A resilient economy and strong earnings remain powerful tailwinds, but these bullish factors are widely recognized. On the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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