Elias Griepentrog

We Promised You Buying Opportunities After The Midterms

Nov 5, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Delayed Cold Shower Since September 15, we've counseled proceeding with caution in the stock market through the midterm elections. We anticipated buying opportunities after Tuesday's elections. Stocks rallied on Wednesday. But they plunged today. The S&P 500 fell 4.4%, its worst day since the April 2025 tariff shock (charts). The Nasdaq composite sank 5.5%, entering correction territory, while the Dow

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Gridlock Won & Markets Cheer

Nov 4, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Why Wall Street Is Cheering the Blue Sweep Ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections, we warned that a Democratic sweep of Congress could deliver a cold shower to Wall Street. It still could, but it didn't do so today. Democrats captured both chambers of Congress, flipping seven Republican-held Senate seats, including historic victories in Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina. Financial markets put a positive spin

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself And FOMO, FEMO, FOGO & FOJO

Nov 3, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Three Shades Of Fear Monday's issue of The Wall Street Journal featured a story titled, "Hedge Fund Elliott Warns of FOGO: Fear of Getting Obliterated in the Market." That has inspired us today to coin "FOJO," or fear of jumping out of the market. FOMO, of course, is the fear of missing out on a bull market. Only a few months ago, we

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Could Midterms Give Wall Street A Cold Shower?

Nov 2, 2026 5 min read paid

I. When Gridlock Isn't Good for Stocks The US midterm elections will be over tomorrow night. According to betting markets, Democrats have roughly a 95% probability of winning the House and a 76% probability of taking the Senate (charts). We suspect that stock investors have yet to fully discount the possibility of a Democratic sweep of Congress. Some may remain skeptical that polls confirming strong support for Democrats

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Continues To Roar, While The Fed Waits For More

Oct 29, 2026 5 min read paid

The FOMC voted 10-2 on Wednesday to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00%, with the two dissenters favoring a 25bps hike. Yet Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's assessment of the US economy sounded decidedly hawkish. Economic growth is robust and broadening, the labor market is in good shape, inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% y/y target, and financial conditions are

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

AI Jitters Continue While Fed Pauses Hiking Rates

Oct 29, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The AI Boom Versus The AI Trade AI jitters will be back tomorrow after taking a breather so far this week, as encouraging developments surrounding the AI investment boom helped restore confidence and lift technology stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% on Wednesday, moving back above its 50-day moving average (chart). The Nasdaq-100 advanced 0.6%, recovering toward its 50-day moving average while

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Industrials: AI Jitters Versus Booming Orders

Oct 28, 2026 5 min read paid

I. AI Still Boosting Capital Goods Orders The AI investment boom has been a double-edged sword for S&P 500 Industrials this year. Back in July, we noted that the sector was the second-best performer among the S&P 500's 11 sectors, with a 17.7% ytd gain, as investors favored companies supplying the equipment and infrastructure needed for the AI buildout. Since then,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is AI Useless?

Oct 26, 2026 5 min read paid

I. AI's Toxic Financial Trifecta Recent AI jitters have been fueled by a potentially toxic trifecta of financial constraints: elevated borrowing costs, uncertain investment returns, and concerns about whether sufficient capital exists to finance everyone's ambitious AI spending plans. Consider the following: (1) Elevated borrowing costs. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near the upper end of its "old normal" range of 4.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

AI Credit Crunch?

Oct 22, 2026 5 min read paid

I. AI Jitters Investors have worried that AI companies are spending too much on data centers. These companies' once ample free cash flows have turned negative, forcing them to borrow. Concerns have mounted that they are driving up financing costs and won't generate sufficient returns to justify their huge investments. Now, another concern is moving to the forefront: Does enough capital even exist to finance everyone'

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Irrational Exuberance In S&P 500 FEMO?

Oct 21, 2026 5 min read paid

Are analysts' earnings expectations for the S&P 500 irrationally exuberant? So far this year, FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum, as measured by actual earnings per share) has been soaring, while FOMO (fear of missing out, as reflected in P/E multiples) has been mostly retreating. Much of that earnings optimism is concentrated in the S&P 500 Information Technology sector, particularly the Semiconductors industry, where the AI

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

What Will Warsh Do?

Oct 20, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Fed: To Hike or Not To Hike? The Federal Reserve announces its next interest-rate decision on Wednesday, October 28. According to CME FedWatch, the federal funds futures market assigns an 84% probability to a pause. The market expects a 25bps hike in December and roughly 50bps of tightening over the next six months (chart). The two-year Treasury yield remains roughly 90bps above the federal funds rate,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

FOMO's Rollercoaster Versus FEMO's Steady Climb

Oct 19, 2026 5 min read paid

I. FOMO vs FEMO Forecasting the stock market is easy! Just multiply the P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) by E (earnings per share) to get P (the stock price index). The hard part, of course, is getting the P/E and E right. We call the P/E component FOMO (fear of missing out) and the E component FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum). This year, investors have been on a

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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