Elias Griepentrog

Beware: September Is Back Again

Sep 1, 2026 5 min read paid

I. A Month of Opportunities "The Waste Land" is a poem by T.S. Eliot. It opens with the line, "April is the cruelest month." Apparently, Eliot never managed a stock portfolio. Everyone in the stock market knows that September is the cruelest month for stocks (chart). But when it is a bad month, it tends to create buying opportunities for a year-end rally that

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is A Debt Crisis Imminent?

Aug 31, 2026 5 min read paid

"You are going to see a crack in the bond market, OK?" JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a May 30 speech at the Reagan National Economic Forum. The US government debt situation is "nearing the point of no return" and approaching a "death spiral" that could threaten the stability of the world's largest economy, Ray Dalio writes in his new book

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

AI Buildout Is Stimulating The Economy

Aug 27, 2026 4 min read paid

Nvidia's Q2 earnings report suggests that the AI spending boom is broadening. The company forecast 70% revenue growth next fiscal year, far above Wall Street's 45% expectation, and said growth would be even stronger if supply constraints were less severe. Significantly, non-hyperscaler revenue grew 138% y/y, outpacing hyperscaler revenue growth of 102% y/y, as demand broadened beyond mega-cap tech into AI-native

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bessent Twist Is Also Bessent Put

Aug 26, 2026 5 min read

I. Bessent Put For Bonds Over the past few weeks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took three actions to deter the Bond Vigilantes by showing them the Treasury's ample toolbox for stabilizing bond yields. First, the Treasury joined Japan in supporting the yen, reducing the risk that Tokyo would need to sell Treasuries to defend its currency. Second, it announced that it was doubling buybacks of 10- to 30-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Peak Fear? Peak Yields? Peak Earnings? Peak AI?

Aug 25, 2026 5 min read paid

The answers are: Yes, Maybe, No, and No. We have nothing to fear but nothing to fear. The stock market likes to climb a wall of worry. So too much optimism tends to be bearish, while too much pessimism tends to be bullish. Fortunately, there is plenty to fear these days. Indeed, in a recent LinkedIn post, billionaire Ray Dalio reiterated that recent events confirm that the US is on

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Latest Pitch of America's Top Bond Salesman

Aug 24, 2026 5 min read paid

Because of the recent commotion in the bond market, Dr. Ed has received many inquiries about the “Bond Vigilantes,” a term he coined in 1983. In response, please see his Bond Vigilantes Primer, which includes a few of his most pertinent excerpts on the topic over the years. I. The New Treasury-Fed Accord In November 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "My job is to be the nation&

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bessent's Put For The Bond Vigilantes & More On Fed's Hawks vs Owls Debate

Aug 19, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The US Treasury Today, the US Treasury announced it is at least doubling its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated government debt. Long-end yields fell sharply after this morning's release (chart). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is signaling that he will do whatever it takes to keep a lid on bond yields. His message to the Bond Vigilantes: "You folks aren't the only

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

AI-Led Economic Boom Driving Yields Higher In US As Japanese Yields Continue To Normalize

Aug 18, 2026 4 min read paid

Several factors are driving bond yields higher worldwide (chart). The war in the Middle East in March boosted yields amid concerns that soaring oil prices would revive inflation. The war, along with other geopolitical crises, is bound to increase defense spending and widen already bloated government deficits. Central banks are increasingly pivoting from easing to tightening their monetary policies (chart). As a result, 10-year government bond yields have increased

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Fed's Divide: Will Core PCED Settle The Debate?

Aug 13, 2026 4 min read paid

The FOMC is divided between a hawkish and an owlish camp. The hawks include Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, all of whom dissented at the July FOMC meeting in favor of a rate hike. Logan argues that policy is no longer restraining the economy. Hammack recently said that "now is the time to act" and that the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

July CPI: The Fed Is Still In The Woods

Aug 12, 2026 4 min read paid

The July CPI report was good news for Fed officials and the rest of us. Inflation is moving closer to the Fed's 2.0% target. However, the inflation picture may not be as bright as the CPI report suggests. New York Fed President John Williams recently said that if core PCED inflation readings remain above 0.2% m/m during the second half of this year, then the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

People Close To Warsh Are Talking About Him

Aug 6, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Fed Today's Financial Times ran an exclusive story about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It is based on insights provided by unidentified people close to him. They say that he admits that he has made some mistakes, "including failing to reinforce his key messages on price stability." In our opinion, he has been unequivocal about his commitment to restore price stability. He just hasn'

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Is Fine & The Fed Should Be Turning More Hawkish

Aug 5, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Macro The economy's two most important engines of economic growth, consumer spending and business investment, are booming. In Q2-2026 real GDP, consumption expenditures increased 3.3% (saar) and nonresidential fixed investments jumped 8.4%. The headline and core GDP deflators, the most comprehensive measures of economy-wide inflation, rose 4.3% y/y and 3.8% (chart). Fed officials should be turning hawkish. Recent Q2 earnings

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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