Elias Griepentrog

Thoughts On Global Government Debt With A Focus On The US

Sep 28, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Revenge of the Bond Vigilantes? We still have a 70% subjective probability for our bullish base-case Roaring 2020s scenario. The remaining 30% covers all the possible bearish scenarios. We monitor those possibilities closely with our Worry List. Our main worry right now is the significant rise in bond yields worldwide this year (chart). The higher global bond yields may be due to higher inflation, driven by the jump

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Baby Boom Briefing

Sep 24, 2026 5 min read paid

Consumer spending resilience increasingly has become a balance-sheet story rather than an income-statement story. The personal saving rate has been falling since January 2024 as consumer outlays have outpaced disposable personal income (chart). Many economists believe that this is unsustainable. Not us. We think that the saving rate will turn negative by the end of the decade as retiring Baby Boomers finance their spending with their sizeable net

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Booming Economy Pushes Bond Yields Higher

Sep 23, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields have risen for many reasons this year (chart). The war in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine have pushed up crude oil and refined petroleum product prices. Rising interest rates in Japan are forcing hedge funds to unwind their carry trades. They are paying back their yen loans by selling the higher-yielding government bonds of the US and other countries that they purchased

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The Silver Tsunami In A Booming Economy

Sep 22, 2026 5 min read paid

I. The Silver Tsunami The “silver tsunami” refers to the large wave of Baby Boomers moving into retirement and the rise in the number of older households. That demographic shift is increasingly reshaping America’s consumer economy, as older households account for a growing share of income and spending power. The scale of that shift becomes clearer when viewed against the broader expansion of the household sector. The US had

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Global Bond Rout Made In Japan?

Sep 17, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Yen-Carry Trade Unwinding? The “yen‑carry trade” has been a key feature of global financial markets since roughly 2012. It rested on two pillars: ultra-low Japanese interest rates and either a weak or relatively stable yen. Hedge funds could borrow funds cheaply in yen, convert the proceeds to other currencies, and buy government bonds in those currencies. The beauty of this trade is that it increased downward

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Fed's Hawks Circling Over Hot US Economy

Sep 16, 2026 5 min read paid

I. The Fed Today marked the conclusion of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The Fed's monetary policy committee delivered a widely anticipated 25bps increase in the federal funds rate (FFR), raising the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Here are five key takeaways from today’s decision: (1) The decision was unanimous. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the FFR by 25bps, showing unanimous agreement

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Proceed With Caution

Sep 15, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Lowering S&P 500 Target On Saturday, we lowered the subjective odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 80% to 70%. We raised the odds of a bearish outcome from 20% to 30%. Today, we are moving our S&P 500 target of 8,400 for year-end to mid-2027. Our new target for the end of 2026 is 7,900. Our end-of-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bond Vigilantes Dare Bessent To Use His Bazooka

Sep 10, 2026 5 min read paid

On September 1, we warned you that September is back. We wrote, "Everyone in the stock market knows that September is the cruelest month for stocks. But when it is a bad month, it tends to create buying opportunities for a year-end rally that often starts in October." So far, the month has been crueler to bond investors than to stock investors. The 10-year US Treasury

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bessent Tells Bond Vigilantes: "I Am The House"

Sep 9, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Bessent Intervening On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of the Treasury's buyback program in the long end of the yield curve. Today, the Treasury unveiled a $6 billion buyback operation in the 10- to 20-year sector, with Bessent stating that the goal is to ensure "that there is not a bad, big adverse outcome" in the Treasury market. However, the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

DEEP DIVE: CPI Versus PCED Crib Notes

Sep 8, 2026 5 min read paid

The outcome of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting will likely hinge on this week's August CPI and PPI reports. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently noted that while inflation remains "meaningfully above" the Fed's 2.0% target, the three-month annualized core PCED inflation rate fell from 4.76% in February to 3.05% in July (chart). If that trend continues, he said he

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Goldilocks Jobs Report Just In Time For Labor Day

Sep 4, 2026 4 min read

The August US jobs report is among the best we have seen in some time and provided an uplifting backdrop for the Labor Day weekend. Labor demand is solid and becoming more broad-based, unemployment remains low, and labor supply improved in August. At the same time, moderate wage growth and solid productivity gains show that inflationary pressures are subdued in the labor market. In other words, the report reinforces

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Boom Lifts Bond Yields

Sep 3, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Stocks, Bonds & Waller Today, the S&P 500 had its best day in a month as Treasury yields edged lower and the dollar dropped to its lowest level since May. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.34% after briefly rising to 4.41% on Tuesday. These moves reflect a decline in the probability of a September rate hike to about 50%, down from

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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