The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q2-2026 real GDP growth at just 1.4% (saar). That's because net exports (i.e., exports minus imports) dragged it down by 1.3 ppt. During the quarter, AI-related imports increased sharply, outpacing the large increase in US exports of crude oil and petroleum products.
The picture is brighter below the headline number. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which strips out volatile trade and inventory swings, is tracking at 2.9%, up from 1.7% in Q1-2026 (chart). Consumer spending growth is projected at 2.0%, a sharp rebound from 0.5% in Q1, and business fixed investment is running at 8.2%, up from 6.5%.
A closer look at the recent economic data reveals what is driving the Q2 GDP estimate and hiding the underlying strength of the economy:
