William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 30-July 4

Jun 29, 2025 3 min read

It may be July 4th week in the US, but we don't expect many fireworks on the economic data front. Of course, surprises could come from events in the Middle East, as Israel, Iran, and the Trump administration figure out whether the ceasefire will hold or missiles will start flying again. Surprises could also come from Trump's trade negotiations. A bunch of deals are expected in

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: What's The Matter With China's Consumers?

Jun 27, 2025 9 min read paid

China’s Consumer Bust I: Blame Xi, Not Trump. As US President Donald Trump does his worst to hobble China’s economy, China’s President Xi Jinping may be beating him to the punch. There’s no doubt that Trump’s tariffs are destabilizing Asia’s biggest economy. Though the current 30% US tariff on Chinese imports is a fraction of Trump’s earlier 145% China tax, it’s still

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 23 - 27

Jun 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Layered on top of a still-developing trade war, President Donald Trump's attack on Iran puts markets in decidedly uncharted territory. Much will depend on how Iran responds to the attack. Trump said in Saturday's White House address, if Iran doesn’t "make peace" then "future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier." In addition, Trump's "Big Beautiful

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

IN 11 CHARTS: Fed Remains On Hold, But Still Leans Towards Easing

Jun 19, 2025 5 min read paid

President Donald Trump has been calling on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. The Fed chair has been the object of intensifying schoolyard jabs from the President. "We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed," Trump told reporters following the Fed's stand-pat decision on Wednesday. "Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I'd do a much better job

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

"UNCONDITONAL SURRENDER"

Jun 17, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market held up remarkably well today considering that President Donald Trump abruptly left the Group of Seven meeting in the Canadian Rockies this morning. On his way home, he warned Tehran's residents to get out of town immediately. He also warned Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that he is an "easy target" and "our patience is wearing thin." In a subsequent post,

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 16–20

Jun 15, 2025 3 min read paid

The moment Fed watchers have waited for is finally here—albeit with less drama than many believed a few weeks back. As we've long said, the two-day June Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Tue-Wed) should come and go with the federal funds rate still in the 4.25%-4.50% range that it's been in since December. Even as headline inflation measures appear to moderate, the

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 9 - 13

Jun 8, 2025 4 min read

Many of the questions the Fed has about how Trump's trade war is impacting the inflation outlook will get timely answers this week. Well, updates at least, since only President Donald Trump knows how long Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) will continue disrupting the world's biggest economy. On Friday, we learned that half of Fed's dual mandate is doing just fine. The full-employment

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 2 - 6

Jun 1, 2025 3 min read

There's no question that President Donald Trump is stress testing the resilience of the economy with what we've been (objectively) calling Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The latest developments on Friday: Trump declared that China is violating terms agreed upon in its trade deal with the US, and he raised the tariff on aluminum and steel from 25% to 50%. Nevertheless, the resilience of the

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Checks and Balances

May 29, 2025 3 min read paid

The US is a federal republic. It isn't a democracy, where the majority always rules. The constitutional system was designed by the Founding Fathers, who were mostly lawyers, to provide checks and balances to avert the concentration of political power and to protect the rights of minority parties against abuses by the majority as well as by those in power. The three branches of government were designed to

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Japan’s Brawl With The Bond Vigilantes

May 28, 2025 1 min read paid

After last week’s portentous Japanese government bond auction, in which demand was so weak as to be off the charts, William explains what went wrong and why. Contributing factors included the BOJ’s halted tightening owing to “tariff haze,” the Prime Minister’s unfortunate remark likening the nation’s fiscal situation to that of Greece, and vestiges of Japan’s economic past. But having Japan-specific causes doesn’t detract

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 27 - 30

May 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is starting with another tariff whiplash. On April 2, President Donald Trump imposed hefty reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners but postponed them for 90 days on April 9. On Friday, he threatened new tariffs on the European Union, Apple Inc., and perhaps Samsung and other tech giants to be named later. But on Sunday, he postponed Friday's June 1 tariff of 50%

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

DEEP DIVE: Demographics Entrench Deflation In China

May 24, 2025 3 min read paid

For a decade now, economists have been theorizing about how China’s aging and shrinking population might affect its economic growth potential (Fig. 1 below and Fig. 2 below). Yet there’s nothing conjectural about the ways demographics are now exacerbating the nation’s deflation troubles. As Japan’s experience since the 1990s has highlighted, few Asians in their mid-60s and higher consume with gusto as twenty- and thirty-somethings do.

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

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