YRI Team

Sentiment Remains Remarkably Bearish, Which Is Bullish

Jan 22, 2025 2 min read

Stock price indexes are back at record highs. Yet the stock market's sentiment indicators have turned stubbornly bearish over the past couple of weeks. We noted this development a week ago and concluded that it might be a bullish signal from a contrarian perspective. We aren't sure why there are more bears and fewer bulls recently. Last week, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell from 4.

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/22/25

Jan 22, 2025 1 min read paid

Expectations for more rate cuts this year than previously expected buoyed both bond and stock markets last week. The prior week was bad for both markets as rate-cut expectations diminished. But last Thursday’s comments by Fed Governor Waller that fueled the turnaround were wrong-headed, in our opinion. If inflation follows the course he expects down to 2.0%, the Fed’s dual mandate would be achieved so it wouldn’

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Foreigners Buying Lots Of US Dollars To Buy Lots Of US Stocks & Bonds

Jan 21, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market rose today, buoyed by the fact that President Donald Trump didn't raise tariffs on Day #1 of his second term as was widely expected. Instead, he will be raising them on Canada and Mexico on Day #13 (February 1). That's what he said Monday evening. Stocks also got a boost when Trump announced today that Softbank, OpenAI, and Oracle are forming a $100

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

ECONOMIC WEEK: January 20–24

Jan 20, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead will be light on economic indicators and heavy on executive orders (EOs). While the markets are closed on Monday for MLK Day, President Donald Trump will be inaugurated into office for his second term. Out of the gate, Trump 2.0 is likely to target tariff, immigration, regulatory, energy, and cultural issues with a deluge of EOs. Bitcoin might get a huge boost this week if Trump

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: Recalibrating the Fed

Jan 18, 2025 5 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, January 13, 2025. From March 2022 through August 2024, there was widespread concern that the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed over that period would cause a recession. It was the most widely anticipated recession that didn’t happen on record. Once the Fed started easing monetary policy on September 18, 2024, it was widely expected that the

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

US Economy: Another Mostly Pretty Picture

Jan 16, 2025 4 min read

Today's batch of December economic indicators in the US has mostly eased any downside concerns about the labor market, consumers, and the economy overall. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model is now showing Q4-2024 real GDP growth of 3.0% (saar), driven by a 3.7% increase in consumer spending on goods (chart). The latter was revised up from 3.3% after retail sales was released

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Today Was A Good Day

Jan 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Both stocks and bonds benefitted from good news across the earnings, macroeconomic, and geopolitical fronts today. Financial stocks jumped as big banks kicked off Q4 earnings season with better-than-expected results, and the S&P 500 rose 1.8%. Treasuries rallied, as December's CPI was a bit cooler than feared. And Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire after 15 long months of fighting. We anticipated that

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/15/25

Jan 15, 2025 1 min read paid

The financial markets have been recalibrating their expectations for monetary policy since the FOMC’s December meeting and their expectations for economic changes under the incoming Trump 2.0 administration since Election Day. In this context, Friday’s strong employment report only served to cement investors’ sense that the Fed should pause its easing. Both bond and stock markets reacted like the sky was falling. We’re not surprised by

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Not Too Cold, Not Too Hot

Jan 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Valuation & Beauty

Jan 13, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock market valuation and beauty have a lot in common: They are both in the eyes of the beholder. At the end of the original version of the movie King Kong (1933), the big ape’s death is blamed by his handler on Ann Darrow, Kong’s blonde love interest, played by Fay Wray: "It was beauty that killed the beast." Lots of investors are worrying that valuation

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

The Economic Week Ahead: January 13-17

Jan 12, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with inflation, consumer, and manufacturing indicators. Long-term Treasury yields could climb closer to 5.00% this week if fears about stickier inflation intensify. We're expecting solid updates on consumer spending. In addition, Q4's S&P 500 bank earnings reported late in the week should be strong and counterbalance any hit to stock valuations from higher yields (chart). Here's

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Spooking Stock Jockeys

Jan 12, 2025 2 min read paid

Last year, during August, we anticipated that US bond yields would rebound. Indeed, they have. During December, we expected a stock market correction at the start of the new year. So far, there has been a significant pullback in almost all of the major stock market indexes since the S&P 500 peaked at a record high on December 6, 2024 (chart). Some of these pullbacks, which are 5%

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

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