YRI Team

MARKET CALL: Crosscurrents & Riptides

Dec 29, 2024 3 min read paid

January could start the year off with some volatility in the bond and stock markets. There are lots of fundamental and technical crosscurrents and a few possible riptides. The Q4 earnings reporting season during January should show a solid increase in S&P 500 operating earnings per share of at least 8.5% y/y (chart). We expect closer to a 10.0% increase since positive earnings surprises regularly

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Bond Vigilantes Pushing Back Against Reckless Monetary & Fiscal Policies

Dec 28, 2024 3 min read paid

The 10-year Treasury bond yield is up 100bps since the Fed started lowering the federal funds rate (FFR) by 100bps on September 18 (chart). Even the 2-year Treasury yield is up about 75bps. We warned about this happening back in August. The Bond Vigilantes are sending a loud warning message. They aren't convinced Donald Trump, the new sheriff coming to town, will maintain fiscal law and order any

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Ahead of the Earnings Pack

Dec 27, 2024 3 min read paid

We've been bullish on the stock market since October 2022. We remain bullish, targeting 7000 on the S&P 500 by the end of next year. That puts us near the head of the pack (chart). Here's more on earnings and valuation: (1) Our forecast for revenues, earnings & margins. We are the head of the pack on the outlook for S&P 500

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Whatever It Takes? China Is Stimulating, Again.

Dec 26, 2024 3 min read paid

There may soon be fewer jobs for economists in both the US and China. On Monday, December 23, Elon Musk (one of the DOGE Boys) tweeted that the "Fed is absurdly overstaffed." On its website, the Fed in Washington brags: "The Federal Reserve Board employs more than 500 researchers, including more than 400 Ph.D. economists, who represent an exceptionally diverse range of interests and specific areas

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Merry Christmas and Happy Hannukah, Kwanzaa & New Year!

Dec 25, 2024 1 min read

We wish you all the best during the holidays and a prosperous year ahead. David, Debbie, Ed, Eric, Geoff, Jackie, Joe, Mali, Mary, Maura, Melissa, Ron, Sandy, Steve, and Valerie Dr. Ed’s 2024 Movie Reviews is now posted on our website. Feliz Navidad The Chanukah Song Best Regards Ed & Eric

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/25/24

Dec 25, 2024 paid

Ed and Eric look forward to the new year. ❇️Exclusive Early Access for Paid Members: Below, you'll find Dr. Ed's latest webcast. Paid members can enjoy immediate access to the video. This content will become available to the public at a later date—don't miss out on early insights, consider upgrading today!

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

MARKET CALL: Get A Neck Brace

Dec 21, 2024 3 min read paid

Wednesday was a bad day for stocks after the release of the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which showed two cuts in the federal funds rate in 2025 rather than the four cuts shown in September's SEP. Friday was a better day for stocks after two Fed officials suggested that November's PCED inflation report provided justification for rate cutting in 2025. * Goolsbee. "

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: Inflation: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

Dec 20, 2024 9 min read paid

💡This is an excerpt from the Yardeni Research December 16, 2024 Morning Briefing. Inflation I: The Good In our Roaring 2020s scenario, a productivity growth boom boosts real GDP growth, keeps a lid on inflation, drives up real labor compensation, and widens profit margins. Last week’s Productivity and Costs report compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) mostly included revised data for Q3-2024, which mostly supported this upbeat

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Bond Vigilantes Butting Heads With Washington's Profligate Crowd

Dec 19, 2024 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Is It Too Late To Panic?

Dec 19, 2024 3 min read paid

Since the December 5 QuickTakes titled "Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bulls," we've been warning that bullish sentiment is too high and setting the stage for a pullback. In Sunday's QT titled "Game of Drones," we reiterated: "Is it time to panic in the stock market? It's always best to panic before the crowd does. The issue isn'

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Fed's Hawkish Rate Cut Triggers Pausing Tantrum

Dec 18, 2024 3 min read paid

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps today, as widely expected. That takes the target range for the overnight rate down from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.25%-4.50%, a full percentage point lower since the Fed's rate cutting cycle started on September 18. A cut was all but guaranteed. Yet the S&P 500 fell almost 3%

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/18/24

Dec 18, 2024 1 min read paid

Lots of crosscurrents are converging to determine the course of inflation in 2025. So projecting that course takes seeing where those currents are headed, predicting with the aid of historical correlations how they’ll likely impact inflation, then overlaying potential economic scenarios to see how they change the narrative. The result: Dr Ed’s three inflation scenarios—the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. In the Good, rising productivity growth

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

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