Jun 18, 2023 2 min read

Core Inflation: The True Story

Core Inflation: The True Story
Photo by Louis Hansel / Unsplash

A few of our QT members asked us to explain why core CPI inflation, which has been so sticky over the past year, should moderate over the rest of this year.  The headline CPI inflation rate has dropped significantly since last summer from around 9.0% to 4.0% in May (chart). But the core inflation rate has been stuck around 6.00% since early last year.

The core CPI inflation rate has been mostly boosted by the rent component of the CPI, which accounts for 34.6% of the total CPI and  a whopping 43.5% of the core CPI. The core CPI inflation rate excluding shelter rose just 3.4% during May, down from last summer's 7.7% (chart). As rent inflation continues to moderate so will the core CPI.

The CPI primary residence rent index seems to be peaking, edging down to 8.7% through May. This index tends to lag the Zillow and ApartmentList rent inflation rates because it includes all current rents, while the latter two include just new leases (chart).

Great! You’ve successfully signed up.
Welcome back! You've successfully signed in.
You've successfully subscribed to Yardeni QuickTakes.
Your link has expired.
Success! Check your email for magic link to sign-in.
Success! Your billing info has been updated.
Your billing was not updated.