Inflation

Bessent Twist Is Also Bessent Put

Aug 26, 2026 5 min read

I. Bessent Put For Bonds Over the past few weeks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took three actions to deter the Bond Vigilantes by showing them the Treasury's ample toolbox for stabilizing bond yields. First, the Treasury joined Japan in supporting the yen, reducing the risk that Tokyo would need to sell Treasuries to defend its currency. Second, it announced that it was doubling buybacks of 10- to 30-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Freaking Out Over The Bond Market

Aug 20, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Bonds On Wednesday, the Treasury Department announced that it was doubling the size of its effort to buy back Treasury securities with maturities between 10 and 30 years, ‌to $4 billion per operation. Long-dated Treasury borrowing costs had been rising sharply amid competition for capital from AI data-center builders, and on worries about government deficits. US sovereign debt hit a record $40 trillion on Wednesday. Bond yields

Ed Yardeni

The Fed's Divide: Will Core PCED Settle The Debate?

Aug 13, 2026 4 min read paid

The FOMC is divided between a hawkish and an owlish camp. The hawks include Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, all of whom dissented at the July FOMC meeting in favor of a rate hike. Logan argues that policy is no longer restraining the economy. Hammack recently said that "now is the time to act" and that the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 10-14

Aug 8, 2026 3 min read

Last week, July payrolls fell 23,000, missing the 85,000 consensus, even as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 7 bps on the release before recovering to close little changed near 4.21%. This week, attention turns to inflation. July CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) will be the first hard inflation data since the Fed's meeting two weeks ago.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Missions Impossible: The War, The Fed & The Yen

Aug 3, 2026 4 min read paid

In Mission: Impossible, Ethan Hunt is always given a nearly impossible mission to accomplish. The objective is crystal clear, the deadline is urgent, and a plan is quickly formulated to achieve the mission. Like Hunt, President Donald Trump, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have clear missions. Their plans for accomplishing these missions are less clear. Despite these uncertainties, the S&P 500 rose today to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Is Still Flying

Jul 30, 2026 4 min read paid

The latest batch of economic data suggests that the US economy remains in remarkably good shape. Domestic demand is strong, and the labor market continues to show resilience. Inflation isn't as picture-perfect. While June's PCED report provided some welcome relief, recent inflation shocks may spread in coming months. They include another round of tariffs, the AI building boom, high energy prices, and supply-chain disruptions.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Choke Points & Other Concerns Causing The Stock Market's Summer Stall

Jul 22, 2026 4 min read paid

At the start of last month, we predicted a June swoon in the S&P 500. Now it's looking more like a summer stall as the index has been marking time around 7,500 since May 14. We still expect the index to reach 8,250 by year-end. A resilient economy and strong earnings remain powerful tailwinds, but these bullish factors are widely recognized. On the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Too Much Complacency?

Jul 15, 2026 5 min read paid

Our Roaring 2020s thesis holds that the demand side of real GDP remains supported by resilient consumer spending and robust business investment. On the supply side, tech-led productivity is boosting real GDP, while keeping a lid on inflation. Now that the economy has proven its mettle over the first seven years of the decade, it should continue to do so over the remaining three years of the Roaring 2020s.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Captain America: Guardian Of The Strait!

Jul 13, 2026 4 min read paid

MOU is DOA. The memorandum of (mis)understanding between the US and Iran is dead on arrival. Act II of the latest Gulf War is underway after a brief interlude. President Donald Trump declared today that the United States will be known as "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT." He announced that the US is reinstating its naval blockade on Iran and plans to enforce a 20% fee

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 13-17

Jul 11, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,575.39, up 1.2% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 1.7% last week. The dominant story was a sharp re-escalation of the war between the US and Iran. Trump declared the ceasefire "over" on Wednesday after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US carried out fresh airstrikes Wednesday night

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Warsh Taking Hawkish Path to Lower Interest Rates

Jun 29, 2026 4 min read paid

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has often said that the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee should talk publicly less often. He wants the Fed to follow the financial markets rather than the other way around. Yet, two weeks after his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, June 17, he is scheduled to appear on a policy panel on Wednesday, July 1, at the annual ECB Forum on

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Fed Still Has An Inflation Problem Despite Plunging Oil Prices

Jun 25, 2026 4 min read paid

The FOMC’s policy stance is determined by the balance of risks to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. In the current environment, those risks remain firmly skewed toward inflation, justifying last week's FOMC pivot from an easing bias to a tightening one. Today's plethora of May economic data shows that the economy and the labor market are in great shape, while both

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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