Fed

How Transitory Is The Inflation Problem Ahead?

Apr 9, 2026 4 min read paid

This evening, Reuters reports that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday, despite the US-Iran ceasefire. Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to remain within its territorial waters as they passed through the Strait to avoid mines. As we've noted previously, geopolitical crises tend to provide buying opportunities in the stock market. Sure enough: Following a 9.1%

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

As Yogi Said: 'It Ain't Over Till It's Over' & 'It's Déjà Vu All Over Again'

Apr 8, 2026 4 min read paid

The fog of war has been replaced by the fog of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Negotiators for the two countries will meet in Islamabad on Friday. They met many times before without averting the war. The pounding of Iran by the US and Israel has failed to topple Iran's regime, which still seems to have firm command and control of the country despite the decapitation

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The War, The Yield Curve, The Fed, Private Credit, and Gold

Mar 30, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian general and military theorist, famously observed that "war is a mere continuation of politics by other means." He argued that war is never an end in itself. Instead, it is a tool used by states to achieve a specific political objective. Therefore, the military strategy must always be subordinate to the political goal. If the political aim changes, the military

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Did Powell Trigger A Taper Tantrum In The Stock Market Today?

Mar 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The fog of war is back. Oil prices jumped today after Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing facility. Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to strike oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Qatar then reported that Iranian missile strikes had damaged a key liquefied natural gas export facility. Early this morning at 2:17 a.m. EST, the price of a barrel of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Nirvana: Will Somebody Tell The Fed That We Have Arrived?

Feb 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The Fed achieved its congressional dual mandate in January. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, and the CPI inflation rate was down to 2.4% y/y. Those round down to what we call “Nirvana” readings, i.e., the low unemployment level of 4.0% and the Fed’s inflation target of 2.0% (chart). Fed officials should celebrate and go on a long vacation. They can leave the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

DEEP DIVE: Meet Kevin Warsh

Feb 7, 2026 10 min read paid

Excerpt from the February 2 Morning Briefing of Yardeni Research. The Fed I: Direct From Central Casting I spent the weekend reading up on Kevin Warsh, who will replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair in May. My friends at the Financial Times asked me to write an 800-word op-ed on him. Sharing those thoughts with readers here leaves me with plenty of additional space to elaborate on what I have

Ed Yardeni

Powell Says: ‘I Have Nothing On That For You’

Jan 28, 2026 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't have much to say at his press conference today. He deflected several questions about the transition as his term as Fed chair ends on May 15. He refused to comment on President Donald Trump's potential pick to replace him or the President's public criticisms of his leadership. He declined to comment on the Department of Justice investigation into himself

Ed Yardeni

Fed Is ‘Well Positioned’ To Do Nothing For A While

Dec 10, 2025 3 min read

As widely expected, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 bps today. It has lowered the FFR by 75bps since September of this year. Since the start of the current easing cycle in September 2024, this rate has declined by 175 bps to 3.50%-3.75%. In his prepared remarks at today’s press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell rightly observed the obvious: "The adjustments

Ed Yardeni

Fed Easing Fails To Ease Bond Yields

Dec 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Have you heard? The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%. That would be a 175bps cut in the FFR since the Fed started its latest monetary easing cycle in September of last year. In his October press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "Now we’re

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 8-12

Dec 7, 2025 3 min read

Obviously, this week is all about the Fed's big interest-rate decision (Wed); the policymakers are expected almost universally to cut rates 25bps for a third time this year. The immediate focus will be on the composition of the FOMC's vote and the insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference: how many dissenters, if any; Fed officials' take on the balance of risks

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

Joy Ride

Nov 24, 2025 3 min read

At the start of November, we expected a pullback in the stock market because the Bull-Bear Ratio we monitor indicated too many bulls. That's bearish from a contrarian perspective. Could the pullback be over already? It might be if the Fed delivers a rate cut on December 10. The stock market took a gut-wrenching dive on Thursday last week. It's still not obvious why the drop

Ed Yardeni

To Bail Or Not To Bail?

Nov 20, 2025 4 min read

Good news bears were on the loose today. It was a risk-off day in financial markets despite strong earnings and economic news. Nvidia reported better-than-expected Q3 results yesterday after the market closed. This morning, we learned that payroll employment rose more than expected in September and that initial unemployment claims remained subdued last week. Nevertheless, it was a bad day for stock investors. The stock market pullback that we expected

Ed Yardeni

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