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Two Known Knowns About the Economy
Investors are confused: Is the economy strong or is it weak? The answer is "Yes." The labor market is strong,…
Fed
80 posts
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What's Driving Bond Yields?
Two of our favorite technical indicators for the 10-year Treasury bond yield are currently bullish. The yield tends to be…
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Credit Crunch Ahead?
SLOOS was on the loose today, yet stock prices continued to snooze.
The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey was…
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Keep Your Seatbelt on and Get a Neck Brace
The S&P 500 rallied along with regional bank stocks today. It found support yesterday at its 50-day moving average.…
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Powell's Plateau
The current consensus in the financial markets seems to be that the FOMC is done hiking the federal funds rate…
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Markets' Message to the Fed: Just Say No to More Rate Hikes
The stock market sent a message to the FOMC today: Cease and desist from any more rate hikes, please. The…
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The Economic Week Ahead: May 1-5
This is another big week for earnings reports, which have been mostly better than expected so far. In addition, the…
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Another Week Without a Banking Crisis
Our mantra since the start of the banking crisis on March 10 has been that any day without a banking…
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Fed 's H.4.1 Shows Banking Crisis Not Getting Worse
The Fed's H.4.1 report is released every Thursday at 4:15 pm. It shows the Fed's assets and…
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Banking Crisis May Be Abating
We've previously observed that any day without a banking crisis is a good day for stocks. SVB imploded on Friday,…
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Inflation, the Fed & Too Much Happiness
The S&P 500 fell slightly today despite the better-than-expected March CPI data this morning. Inflation continues to moderate. The…
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On the Lookout for a Bank Credit Crunch
The Silicon Valley Bank imploded on Friday, March 10. To avert a widespread bank run, the Fed announced, on Sunday,…
