Fed

Inflation & Employment Indicators Are Mixed As Fed Meets

Jun 10, 2026 4 min read paid

The latest batch of inflation and employment indicators suggests that the FOMC might adopt a neutral policy stance at next week's meeting rather than a tightening one as we have been expecting. That seemed to be the initial reaction in the US Treasury market, as 2- and 10-year yields edged lower on today's cooler-than-expected core CPI inflation news. We are sticking with our

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US MARKET CALL: June Swoon!

Jun 7, 2026 4 min read paid

On Wednesday, June 3, we titled our QuickTakes "June Swoon?" As it turned out, the question mark should have been an exclamation mark. On Friday, June 5, stocks swooned unmistakably. The S&P 500 closed at 7,383.74, down 2.64%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 equal-weight indexes fell 4.77% and 1.45%, respectively. The catalyst was a stronger-than-expected payroll

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

June Swoon?

Jun 3, 2026 4 min read

So far, the S&P 500 bottomed this year on March 30 in response to the latest Gulf War. Since then, Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO) during the Q1 earnings reporting season fueled a remarkable 19.1% rally in the index, led by an amazing 44.5% increase in the S&P 500 Information Technology sector (chart). Yesterday, we raised the caution flag, suggesting a possible pullback over the

Ed Yardeni

Fed Minutes Should Please Bond Vigilantes

May 20, 2026 4 min read paid

On Monday, we made a few headlines in the financial press with our out-of-consensus prediction that the FOMC would adopt a tightening bias at the June meeting of the Fed's policymaking committee. That would be followed by a 25-bps hike in the federal funds rate (FFR) at the July FOMC meeting. Today, the minutes of the April FOMC meeting showed that the vote to maintain

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MARKET CALL: Time for A Break Or a Brake?

May 17, 2026 5 min read paid

The S&P 500 sold off by 1.2% on Friday after hitting a record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. We are sticking with our 8250 year-end target for the S&P 500 (chart). However, the index might have peaked for a while. That's because bond yields spiked on Friday, which just happened to be Kevin Warsh's first day at the office

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 18-22

May 17, 2026 4 min read

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% from its record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. A run of hot inflation data and a spike in bond yields did the damage on Friday. April headline CPI hit 3.8% y/y, the highest since May 2023, while core CPI was 2.8%. The big shocker was last Wednesday's April PPI for final demand, which rose

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Another Day, Another Step Closer to a Tightening Bias

May 15, 2026 4 min read paid

Two important psychological levels are being tested in the US Treasury market right now. The 2-year yield is trading just above 4.00% this evening, May 14 (chart). That's 25bps above the current federal funds rate (FFR) range of 3.50%-3.75%. That implies investors believe the Fed may need to raise the FFR by at least 25 bps in the foreseeable future. The 30-year

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

From Cuts to Hikes: The Fed's Shifting Calculus

May 13, 2026 5 min read paid

The April FOMC statement contained an easing bias, signaling that the Fed remained likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) over the rest of the year. That bias is becoming increasingly difficult to defend. Three voting members on the FOMC (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) already dissented against retaining it at the April meeting of the monetary policy committee. Boston Fed President Susan Collins has since added her voice to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

No More Mr. Nice Guy

Apr 29, 2026 4 min read paid

We will miss Jerome Powell's chairmanship of the Fed. He is a nice guy. He did the best that he could as Fed chair from February 5, 2018, through May 15, 2026, when his term as chair expires. Nevertheless, he said he intends to remain a Fed governor for now. He can do so until his term on the Board of Governors expires on January 31, 2028. President

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh, Rinse, Repeat

Apr 22, 2026 5 min read paid

We are Fed Watchers. In his Senate Banking Committee hearing yesterday, Kevin Warsh suggested that under his leadership, we might have less to watch. He advocated ending current "forward guidance" practices, which means no more quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, including the Dot Plot (chart). He suggested that a press conference after FOMC meetings should only be held when there is "important news" to deliver, rather

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

How Transitory Is The Inflation Problem Ahead?

Apr 9, 2026 4 min read paid

This evening, Reuters reports that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday, despite the US-Iran ceasefire. Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to remain within its territorial waters as they passed through the Strait to avoid mines. As we've noted previously, geopolitical crises tend to provide buying opportunities in the stock market. Sure enough: Following a 9.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

As Yogi Said: 'It Ain't Over Till It's Over' & 'It's Déjà Vu All Over Again'

Apr 8, 2026 4 min read paid

The fog of war has been replaced by the fog of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Negotiators for the two countries will meet in Islamabad on Friday. They met many times before without averting the war. The pounding of Iran by the US and Israel has failed to topple Iran's regime, which still seems to have firm command and control of the country despite the decapitation

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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