More persistently pernicious inflation than expected is at the root of the financial market’s bearish sentiment. Revenues, profit margins, and earnings have been holding up relatively well; the market’s big problem is a significant downward rerating of the P/E multiples that investors are willing to pay in this inflationary economic environment.
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We continue to think the economy is undergoing a rolling recession afflicting different industries at different times. We also think that inflation might be following a similar rolling script. Notably, goods inflation pressures have abated as services inflation pressures have picked up.