The economic slowdown so far this year is not the game-changing “official” recession so widely feared. Waiting and waiting for this Godot of a recession is muting economic activity, but also inhibiting excesses.
That’s why we expect any recession that does show up—a scenario we give 35% odds—to be mild and roll through the economy gradually by sector. We see a slow-growth scenario as the most likely outlook (60% odds) and an inflationary boom the least (5%). … Also: We turn our spotlight on what a rolling recession might look like and how September might treat the stock market.