Keeping track of whether Fed Chair Powell is dovish or hawkish is making us dizzy. His latest clues—dropped at last week’s Jackson Hole conference—reversed the dovish impression he’d left in July that caused stocks to rally.
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So stocks pivoted southward last week. … We anticipate Powell’s next pivot and potentially encouraging inflation news. … Might BEA’s upcoming H1 GDP revisions reveal that the economy grew after all, making the “technical recession” illusory? We wouldn’t be surprised. We project 1.5% GDP growth during H2 and 2.5% next year. … Also: Q2 data on S&P 500 revenues and profits show new record highs for both.