Sep 20, 2022 1 min read

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/19/22

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/19/22

Fed Chair Powell seems to be channeling his 1970s predecessor Paul Volcker—who masterfully tamed high inflation amid a severe recession. Today, we assess how August’s CPI shocker may alter the FOMC’s economic projections and policy decisions.

Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date.

We expect Wednesday’s FOMC meeting to bring a 100bps hike in the fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.50% and more hawkish projections of committee members, suggesting a terminal rate this tightening cycle of 4.25%-4.50%. … For the economy, we expect the current rolling recession to continue without turning into an official recession because there is ample liquidity to avert a credit crunch.

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