Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 16)

Valuation & Beauty

Jan 13, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock market valuation and beauty have a lot in common: They are both in the eyes of the beholder. At the end of the original version of the movie King Kong (1933), the big ape’s death is blamed by his handler on Ann Darrow, Kong’s blonde love interest, played by Fay Wray: "It was beauty that killed the beast." Lots of investors are worrying that valuation

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: January 13-17

Jan 12, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with inflation, consumer, and manufacturing indicators. Long-term Treasury yields could climb closer to 5.00% this week if fears about stickier inflation intensify. We're expecting solid updates on consumer spending. In addition, Q4's S&P 500 bank earnings reported late in the week should be strong and counterbalance any hit to stock valuations from higher yields (chart). Here's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Spooking Stock Jockeys

Jan 12, 2025 2 min read paid

Last year, during August, we anticipated that US bond yields would rebound. Indeed, they have. During December, we expected a stock market correction at the start of the new year. So far, there has been a significant pullback in almost all of the major stock market indexes since the S&P 500 peaked at a record high on December 6, 2024 (chart). Some of these pullbacks, which are 5%

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Risks & Reward In 2025

Jan 11, 2025 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated January 6, 2025. Strategy I: What Could Go Right. We are biased by the stock market’s bullish bias. We tend to be permabulls because bear markets are infrequent and are usually relatively short compared to bull markets, which tend to last for some time. Since January 1978, the S&P 500 is up 66.6-fold (Fig. 3)

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

A Bunch Of Cool & Colorful Charts

Jan 9, 2025 3 min read

I. US FINANCIAL MARKETS The bull/bear ratios have dropped sharply over the past couple of weeks (chart). From a contrarian perspective that's a bullish development for the US stock market. The US bond yield has been increasing while the ratio of industrial to precious metals commodity prices has been falling since 2022 (chart). This unusual divergence might suggest that bond investors are increasingly concerned about the long-term

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bond Yields Have Normalized

Jan 8, 2025 3 min read

The backup in bond yields since mid-September did not surprise us. But it has surprised lots of other financial pundits, who are warning that this could be bad news for stocks. It could be, especially if the 10-year US Treasury bond yield revisits last year's high of 5.00%. That would probably bring a buying opportunity in the bond and stock markets. We think that bond yields have

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/8/25

Jan 8, 2025 1 min read paid

The January Barometer and January Effect have been interesting statistical regularities that may not have much investment usefulness. It’s better to stay in the stock market whatever the month brings than to try and execute exits and entrances based on the calendar. Over time, the market has a bullish bias, which is why we do too. … Today, Dr Ed lists what could go right for the stock market this

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bond Vigilantes Put 5% Yield In Crosshairs

Jan 7, 2025 3 min read paid

The US economy continues to roar. December's ISM purchasing managers survey showed that services activity remains strong. The JOLTS data, albeit a bit stale from November, showed job openings jumped. That aligned with the recent rise in measures of business and consumer confidence. So why did stocks turn lower today? The answer lies with the bond market. The prices-paid index in the ISM nonmanufacturing PMI jumped from 58.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Will SMidCaps Continue To Underperform?

Jan 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Today was another good day for technology stocks, semiconductor stocks, and the Magnificent-7. In the S&P 500, they were up 1.44%, 3.28%, and 2.01%. We continue to recommend overweighting the LargeCap S&P 500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors. We aren't as keen on the MidCap S&P 400 or the SmallCap S&P 600 (collectively the “SMidCaps”), or

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: AI Coming To Vegas, Baby, Vegas!

Jan 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The Q4-2024 earnings reporting season is about to start, led by the big banks. We expect that during their conference calls, company managements will discuss how AI may be starting to boost their productivity. In effect, they'll be trying to convince investors that every company is now a technology company either producing AI hardware and software or using them. The AI excitement will be palpable this week. As

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: January 6-10

Jan 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of labor market indicators for November and December. We're expecting them to beat expectations. As long as corporate earnings continue to reach new record highs, companies are likely to hire more workers and increase real wages (chart). Ultimately, that supports consumer spending and stock prices. Still, there are a number of potential headwinds for stocks, not the least of which is rising

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Great (Yield) Fall Of China

Jan 2, 2025 3 min read paid

Today's Wall Street Journal reports: "Now, as Trump prepares for his second administration, American companies have largely gone silent about the importance of the U.S.-China relationship. That is because American businesses no longer see China as the land of opportunity. The promise of China’s market has faded as its once-booming economy hits trouble." We've been saying for a while that China

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Page 16 of 117

Valuation & Beauty

The Economic Week Ahead: January 13-17

MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Spooking Stock Jockeys

DEEP DIVE: Risks & Reward In 2025

A Bunch Of Cool & Colorful Charts

Bond Yields Have Normalized

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/8/25

Bond Vigilantes Put 5% Yield In Crosshairs

Will SMidCaps Continue To Underperform?

MARKET CALL: AI Coming To Vegas, Baby, Vegas!

The Economic Week Ahead: January 6-10

The Great (Yield) Fall Of China