Paid Sweet Spot For Financials Oct 7, 2025 3 min read paid Today, Oracle disclosed that its AI cloud business—particularly server rentals using Nvidia chips—is yielding very slim profit margins. That news weighed on the stock market, especially on technology stocks. Oracle's stock price fell 2.5%. The Magnificent-7 declined 1.1%. Financial stocks also dropped today. They tend to have more leverage and cyclical exposure, so when sentiment sours, they often fall harder than some defensive sectors. Ed Yardeni
Paid Another Day Of AI Fun In The Sun For Semis Oct 6, 2025 3 min read paid Semiconductor stocks have certainly benefited from the AI boom. All those data centers being built will be filled with chips (chart). All those autonomous-driving vehicles will also be stuffed with chips, and so will humanoid robots. And they will all generate more data that will need to be processed. Today's AI winner was AMD. Shares of the chipmaker soared after the company announced a multibillion-dollar deal with OpenAI, Ed Yardeni
Public GOOD MARKET CALL: Gold Oct 6, 2025 3 min read From time to time, we will review and update some of our good market calls. We hope this provides a helpful perspective on our approach to market forecasting. Today, let's review and update our thoughts on the outlook for gold: (1) We first turned bullish on the price of gold on April 7, 2024. We noted that it was breaking out above $2000 per ounce to new record Ed Yardeni
Public ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 6 - 10 Oct 5, 2025 3 min read This is a quiet week for key economic data releases, but it is even quieter due to the ongoing government shutdown. For financial markets, this informational void is equivalent to flying blind. That also applies to Fed officials who are undecided about the need to vote for a rate cut at the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. This week will offer investors insights into the internal dynamics of the September 16-17 Ed Yardeni William Pesek
Public A Bubble In Bubble Fears? Oct 5, 2025 3 min read We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target back to 7000. We started the year there, but lowered it earlier this year in response to Trump's Tariff Turmoil. We began raising our forecast again during the spring, when we concluded that the tariff issue would no longer impact the stock market by the end of the summer. We bet the resilience of the economy would boost Ed Yardeni
Paid What Is The Stock Market Discounting? Oct 2, 2025 3 min read paid The stock market is discounting the ongoing resilience of the economy and corporate earnings. It is discounting that the odds of a recession over the rest of the Roaring 2020s are low. The longer the economy is expected to grow without a recession, the more sustainable high valuation multiples can be, since earnings growth can be expected to justify those valuations (chart). High valuations don't cause bear markets. Ed Yardeni
Paid Russell 2000 Is For Losers, But Is Currently Winning Oct 2, 2025 3 min read paid The Russell 2000 small-cap stock price index is outperforming the S&P 600, another small-cap index (chart). The former includes many more companies that are losing money than the latter. This is yet another sign of mounting speculative froth in financial markets in response to the Fed's 25bps cut in the federal funds rate on September 17. The S&P 600's requirement that companies Ed Yardeni
Paid WEEKLY WEBCAST: Meet Bonnie Oct 1, 2025 1 min read paid Our Roaring 2020s outlook has been on target since the beginning of the decade. Over the past two quarters, GDP growth and consumer spending have been robust, and the recession widely anticipated for three years and as recently as April never showed. The Fed’s September interest-rate cut—made proactively in response to weak payroll stats—was probably a mistake that could stoke price inflation and financial speculation. While unemployment Ed Yardeni
Paid Another Bad JOLTS For Job Market Oct 1, 2025 3 min read paid The S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) closed today at 666 (chart). I have fond memories of that number. I wrote on March 16, 2009: "We’ve been to Hades and back. The S&P 500 bottomed last week on March 6 at an intraday low of 666. This is a number commonly associated with the Devil. . . . The latest relief rally was sparked by lots of good Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: Where Is the Neutral Interest Rate? Sep 30, 2025 3 min read paid In his post-FOMC press conference on September 17, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that Fed policy remains tight notwithstanding the latest rate cut: “What we can say is this, that over the course of this year we've kept our policy at a restrictive level—and people have different views—but a clearly restrictive level, I would say.” In other words, monetary policy remains tight. How does he know Ed Yardeni
Public ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 29 - October 3 Sep 28, 2025 3 min read Monthly employment reports have been suspenseful enough in recent months, but the real drama surrounding September's hotly anticipated figures is whether they will even be released on Friday. They won't be if the government shuts down on October 1 amid partisan bickering. Assuming the data come out, we expect them to show that the economy remains more buoyant than the conventional wisdom acknowledges given how surprised Ed Yardeni William Pesek
Public MARKET CALL: Nothing To Fear But Overvaluation & A Shutdown Sep 28, 2025 3 min read The financial markets have become jittery lately due to concerns about high valuation multiples, particularly among AI stocks, and a potential government shutdown. President Donald Trump reportedly will meet with the top four congressional leaders at the White House on Monday as the threat of a government shutdown on October 1 looms. Meanwhile, investors are once again wondering whether the massive spending on AI infrastructure by the "hyperscalers" Ed Yardeni