Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 2)

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Gone Wild

Oct 4, 2026 5 min read paid

The Bond Vigilantes have gone wild worldwide, pushing government bond yields higher in developed and emerging markets alike. A month ago, we asked whether rising yields reflected stronger growth, higher inflation, or looming fiscal crises. We still think the answer is mostly growth. The exception is where government finances are weakest. There, bond investors are charging a fiscal-risk premium. France may be on the verge of a full-blown

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 5-9

Oct 4, 2026 4 min read

Most of last week's economic indicator reports were strong: Initial jobless claims fell to near a 57-year low, ADP private payrolls rose 90,000 in September, and the ISM M-PMI was in expansion for a ninth straight month. Friday's employment report was the exception. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 in September, well below expectations, while July and August were revised down by a

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Stocks Ignoring Bonds, For Now

Oct 3, 2026 5 min read

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has climbed above 5.25%, and the S&P 500 hasn’t flinched. The stock index is just 2.2% below our year-end target of 7,900. It could overshoot our target in the coming days now that crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf producers reportedly are averaging around 98% of pre-war totals, excluding Iran. Producers and shippers have

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Thanks For The Memories

Oct 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Micron and the AI Trade Memory has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI spending boom. Micron’s stock, for example, is up 273.2% ytd, second only to SanDisk among the semiconductor companies. We have been bullish on memory, and Micron’s fiscal Q4-2026 results reinforced our view. Revenue surged 379% y/y to a record $54.2 billion, above the $50.8 billion consensus.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst
Elias Griepentrog

Optimistic Spin: Bond Market Pricing Better-Than-Expected Economic Growth

Sep 30, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields rose yet again today even though September's PCED inflation report showed some improvement, which was due mostly to new measurement procedures. Inflation remains about a percentage point above the Fed's 2.0% target. Other economic indicators today confirmed that the economy and the labor market are doing very well and strengthened the case for more Fed rate hikes. Yesterday's dovish suggestion by

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: On Inflation, Capital Spending & Economic Resilience

Sep 30, 2026 1 min read paid

Today, Ed and Elias take a deep dive into core inflation, i.e., minus volatile food and energy prices. The Fed’s preferred measure, the core PCED, justifies tightening monetary policy—both the recent September rate hike and presumably future ones provided that underlying inflation remains elevated. … The alternative measure, the core CPI, is structured differently, causing it to diverge from the core PCED in response to price changes in

Ed Yardeni

Prospect of Accelerating Wage Growth In A Strong Economy

Sep 29, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Is Wage Growth Accelerating? Wage growth signals labor market conditions. Just as shortages of goods tend to push prices higher, worker shortages tend to push wages higher. When labor demand outstrips labor supply, employers must compete more aggressively for workers, resulting in faster wage growth. Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell's framework for assessing labor-market tightness compares labor demand, using the sum of household employment plus job

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Thoughts On Global Government Debt With A Focus On The US

Sep 28, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Revenge of the Bond Vigilantes? We still have a 70% subjective probability for our bullish base-case Roaring 2020s scenario. The remaining 30% covers all the possible bearish scenarios. We monitor those possibilities closely with our Worry List. Our main worry right now is the significant rise in bond yields worldwide this year (chart). The higher global bond yields may be due to higher inflation, driven by the jump

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US SECTORS CALL: Semiconductors, Utilities & Materials

Sep 27, 2026 5 min read paid

Stocks opened last week with a big rally. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% on Monday, and the Nasdaq closed at a record high as oil prices and bond yields fell. The reprieve didn't last. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.17% by Friday's close, its highest level since 2007. The S&P 500 still finished the week up 1.2%

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 28 - October 2

Sep 27, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is jam-packed with labor market data releases, capped off by September's employment report (Fri). August's PCED and the third estimate of Q2 GDP arrive Wednesday, along with BEA's annual revisions, followed by ISM's M-PMI on Thursday. FedSpeak continues, with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Governor Lisa Cook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari,

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Interest Rates Are Troubling

Sep 26, 2026 4 min read

I. Global Economy The global economy has been surprisingly resilient so far this year. There were dips earlier this year, when the Middle East war was in full swing; but in recent months, global industrial production and exports have rebounded to their record highs from before the war (chart). The All Country World MSCI forward revenues per share has continued to soar to record highs this year (chart). The All

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKETS CALL: Invasion Of The Bond Vigilante Algorithms

Sep 26, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Credit Last week's events confirm our "Proceed With Caution" call in September 15's QuickTakes. The main event was the jump in the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.00% to an intraday high of 5.22% on Friday (chart). At the end of the day, it closed lower, at 5.18%, after news that Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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