Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 3)

Boom Lifts Bond Yields

Sep 3, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Stocks, Bonds & Waller Today, the S&P 500 had its best day in a month as Treasury yields edged lower and the dollar dropped to its lowest level since May. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.34% after briefly rising to 4.41% on Tuesday. These moves reflect a decline in the probability of a September rate hike to about 50%, down from

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Dell Results Suggest AI Productivity Boom Is Here

Sep 2, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Dell Dell Technologies' stock price is soaring (chart). The company delivered a major beat across the board for its fiscal 2027 second quarter (ended July 31), driven by massive, accelerating demand for AI infrastructure and strong legacy hardware performance. Revenues and earnings rose 58% y/y and 203%, respectively. AI server revenue rose 100%, while traditional servers and networking revenues rose 122%. The results confirm that the AI

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Warsh World

Sep 2, 2026 1 min read paid

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh isn’t one to give the markets a heads-up. Investors are trying to translate what he says into what he would like the Fed to do. To that end, Ed and Elias parse Warsh’s remarks last week at the Jackson Hole symposium. While Warsh’s assessment of economic conditions is hawkish, is it just hawkish squawk or indicative of his vote at September’s

Ed Yardeni

Beware: September Is Back Again

Sep 1, 2026 5 min read paid

I. A Month of Opportunities "The Waste Land" is a poem by T.S. Eliot. It opens with the line, "April is the cruelest month." Apparently, Eliot never managed a stock portfolio. Everyone in the stock market knows that September is the cruelest month for stocks (chart). But when it is a bad month, it tends to create buying opportunities for a year-end rally that

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is A Debt Crisis Imminent?

Aug 31, 2026 5 min read paid

"You are going to see a crack in the bond market, OK?" JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a May 30 speech at the Reagan National Economic Forum. The US government debt situation is "nearing the point of no return" and approaching a "death spiral" that could threaten the stability of the world's largest economy, Ray Dalio writes in his new book

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology, Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Aug 30, 2026 5 min read paid

Information Technology (MW) led the S&P 500 sectors last week, up 1.8%. The sector rose 3.4% on Thursday following Nvidia’s results the previous evening. Nvidia guided to 70% revenue growth next fiscal year against a 45% consensus. Energy (OW) was among the weakest, down 2.0%, while Consumer Discretionary (UW) rose 0.1%. The rate-sensitive sectors sold off on Friday after Warsh’s Jackson

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Bull Market In Stocks Despite Bear Market In Bonds

Aug 30, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields are rising worldwide, but that's not stopping the global bull market in stocks. For now, investors are reading higher yields as a sign of economic growth rather than a threat to it, so the "Go Global" trade is still working. South Korea and Taiwan are back at the top of August's leaderboard after July's shakeout. The AI-linked markets that

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 31 - September 4

Aug 29, 2026 4 min read

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday was hawkish. He declined to offer forward guidance, saying he's "committed to a discipline, not a decision." He said this summer's better-than-expected inflation prints don't yet show that underlying trends have meaningfully improved, and that he'd be "hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Warsh Proof

Aug 29, 2026 4 min read

Last Wednesday, Nvidia's earnings report came in much stronger than expected, confirming that the AI boom is still going strong. On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was much more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole speech. He acknowledged that inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target. Overall, as we expected, these two events didn't move the markets much. The S&P

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

AI Buildout Is Stimulating The Economy

Aug 27, 2026 4 min read paid

Nvidia's Q2 earnings report suggests that the AI spending boom is broadening. The company forecast 70% revenue growth next fiscal year, far above Wall Street's 45% expectation, and said growth would be even stronger if supply constraints were less severe. Significantly, non-hyperscaler revenue grew 138% y/y, outpacing hyperscaler revenue growth of 102% y/y, as demand broadened beyond mega-cap tech into AI-native

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bessent Twist Is Also Bessent Put

Aug 26, 2026 5 min read

I. Bessent Put For Bonds Over the past few weeks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took three actions to deter the Bond Vigilantes by showing them the Treasury's ample toolbox for stabilizing bond yields. First, the Treasury joined Japan in supporting the yen, reducing the risk that Tokyo would need to sell Treasuries to defend its currency. Second, it announced that it was doubling buybacks of 10- to 30-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Trump Threatens Military Action Against The Bond Vigilantes

Aug 26, 2026 1 min read paid

The Bond Vigilantes have driven up Treasury bond yields recently, thundering onto the scene in alarm over the government’s huge borrowing needs, record corporate bond issuance, three inflationary supply shocks, a cloudy Fed path, resilient nominal GDP growth, a higher neutral interest rate, and a fragile yen. On the flip side, the Trump administration is determined to keep yields tethered—one way or another. Also holding yields in check

Ed Yardeni

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