Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 4)

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 2 - 5

Sep 1, 2025 3 min read

This week is chock-a-block with data reports, all building up to Friday's pivotal employment report. The August jobs release will offer a reality check of sorts following July's surprisingly soft reading and significant downward revisions to results for May and June. It could determine whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proceeds with a rate cut at its September 16-17 policy meeting. The July jobs data

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Market Call: What Could Possibly Go Wrong In September?

Aug 30, 2025 4 min read

September has a long history of being a tough month for the stock market. This has been particularly true over the past decade, based on the average year-to-date percentage change in the S&P 500 during Septembers (chart). But when September was weak in the past, it often provided buying opportunities for year-end rallies. So, might the latest top in the S&P 500 have been hit on

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Chair Has Spoken

Aug 29, 2025 7 min read

The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated August 22, 2025. The Fed I: Markets Hear Powell Cooing. We expected Fed Chair Jerome Powell to sound neither dovish nor hawkish when he spoke at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. We expected him to be owlish, expressing the need to wait and watch for further data before committing to another round of monetary policy easing. The

Ed Yardeni

Is Fed About To Stimulate A Hot Economy?

Aug 28, 2025 3 min read

The bull market in stocks is making everyone who owns stocks richer. Gallup reported that 62% of Americans were invested in the stock market at the end of 2024 (chart). That's the highest since the end of 2008. We think the bull market is having a significant positive wealth effect on consumers who own equities, more than offsetting the debt effect on them of rising credit delinquencies. At

Ed Yardeni

Update: Stay Home Versus Go Global

Aug 27, 2025 3 min read

Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue after the stock market closed today. Revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters. Nvidia is one of several mega-cap technology stocks that have fueled the bull market in the US, causing it to outperform overseas stock markets. The outperformance was briefly interrupted earlier this year, but the US market seems to be back on its winning track. We continue to recommend

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: The Chair Has Spoken

Aug 27, 2025 1 min read

Fed Chair Powell’s eagerly awaited speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday fanned stock investors’ hope that the FOMC would lower the federal funds rate in September—despite Powell’s hedges and the fact that upcoming data releases will figure into the decision. Notably absent in his speech was mention of the Fed’s need to maintain financial system stability if it is to achieve either

Ed Yardeni

Economy Is Growing, While Job Indicators Remain Solid

Aug 26, 2025 2 min read

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey includes the most timely monthly indicators of the labor market. August's survey was released today (chart). The jobs-plentiful series remained relatively high at 29.7%. The jobs-available series fell to 50.3%, which is above its average over time of 48.2%. That drop was matched by an uptick in the jobs-hard-to-get series to 20.0%. In our opinion, these stats

Ed Yardeni

Is the Bull Market In Stocks Finally Broadening?

Aug 25, 2025 3 min read

The Magnificent-7 stocks have been leading the charge of the current bull market that started on October 12, 2022. They are all in the Nasdaq 100, which is up 117.9% so far since the start of the bull market, beating all the other major US stock market indexes (chart). The Mag-7's market capitalization share of the S&P 500 has doubled during the current bull market

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 25-29

Aug 24, 2025 3 min read

Now that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is talking the talk of easing, markets are on the lookout for whether upcoming data are walking the walk. A Fed rate cut next month isn't a done deal, no matter what Powell hinted at last Friday at Jackson Hole. A lot can happen in a few weeks. Before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets September 16-17, policymakers will see a

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Stocks Discounting Fed Put

Aug 24, 2025 3 min read

Ever since the release of the weaker-than-expected July employment report at the start of this month, stock investors have been betting that the Fed Put is back in play and that it will probably be implemented at the FOMC's meeting on September 16-17. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had been pushing back against this notion since early this year by saying that the Fed is in no rush to

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Stock Market Discounting Fed Put, Which The Economy Does Not Need

Aug 24, 2025 5 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated August 18, 2025. Exercising Fed Put Would Fuel Stock Market Meltup. Stock investors have been joyously discounting a Fed rate cut in September following the release of July’s weaker-than-expected employment report. The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high on Thursday. It is up 3.4% since the close on August 1—the day of the

Ed Yardeni

Waiting For The Chair To Speak

Aug 21, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock and bond prices have been marking time over the past couple of weeks, waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak tomorrow at 10 a.m. at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Meanwhile, today's batch of economic indicators supports our view that a Fed rate cut may not be warranted at the September 16-17 meeting of the FOMC if the other indicators released in the coming days also

Ed Yardeni

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