Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 55)

Stock Market Has Discounted Lots Of Good News

Mar 19, 2024 2 min read paid

Nvidia was up a measly 1% today despite the exciting presentation, after Monday's close, by CEO Jensen Huang about the company's future in the AI ecosystem. He announced a new generation of GPU chips and software for running AI models. The first chips in the new Blackwell platform will be shipped later this year. They are more powerful (with a five-fold increase in petaflops) and consume

Ed Yardeni

The S&P 500/400/600 Performance Derby

Mar 18, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 LargeCap stock price index is up 44.0% since the end of the latest bear market on October 12, 2022. The S&P 400 MidCap and S&P 600 SmallCap are up 29.5% and 17.8% since then. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 are trading at record highs, while the S&P 600 remains below its

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 18 - 22

Mar 17, 2024 2 min read

Other than Nvidia's AI lovefest during the first three days of the week and the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, it's a quiet week for economic indicators. It will be interesting to see if the Philly Fed's regional business survey (Thu) for March confirms the weakness in last week's similar survey released by the NY Fed (chart). Both of these regional

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Nvidia's Lovefest Versus Powell's (Perhaps Depressing) Presser

Mar 17, 2024 2 min read paid

Nvidia's three-day AI lovefest for developers starts Monday afternoon in San Jose, California. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm following the meeting. During his congressional testimony on March 7, Powell indicated that the Fed "is not far from...dial[ing] back the level of restriction." After last week's hotter than

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: 'Pent-Up Exuberance'

Mar 15, 2024 4 min read paid

Raphael Bostic is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He is a 2024 voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee. In a March 4 post on his bank’s website, he warned about “pent-up exuberance.” He acknowledged that inflation has slowed, but he fears that it could accelerate quickly if the Fed stops tapping on the economy’s brakes and begins to step on

Ed Yardeni

The Pause That Refreshes Spooks Investors

Mar 14, 2024 2 min read paid

The vertical momentum rally that started on October 27, 2023 seems to be losing some of its momentum. Maybe. That's OK with us. We would rather see our 5400 S&P 500 target achieved by yearend, then by mid-year. But as the Rolling Stones observed, "You can't always get what you want." Slowing the pace of the advance this week have been hotter

Ed Yardeni

Yikes: Everyone Is Bullish!

Mar 13, 2024 2 min read

During the week of October 11, 2022, the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) fell to a cyclical low of 0.57 (chart). The previous bear market bottomed the next day on October 12, 2022. The BBR reading back then was the lowest since the Great Financial Crisis. We turned bullish in early November figuring that sentiment was much too bearish and that the most widely expected recession of all

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/13/24

Mar 13, 2024 1 min read paid

Is Bostic on to something? We think the Atlanta Fed president is right to warn about “pent-up exuberance,” the business community’s readiness to pounce on opportunities en masse the minute interest rates drop. Demand then could surge, triggering resurgent inflation. The Fed should be wary of tripping that wire by lowering interest rates too soon. … Yet Fed Chair Powell sounded ready to ease soon last Thursday. We don’t

Ed Yardeni

Core CPI Continues To Moderate

Mar 12, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Broadening Bull

Mar 11, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 market-weighted stock price index is up 43.2% since the current bull market started on October 12, 2022 (chart). The equal-weighted version of the index is up 29.5% since it bottomed on September 30, 2022. This confirms our view that the bull market has been a broad one all along. The equal-weighted index has certainly been in a bull market, it just hasn'

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Global Economy Muddling Along To New Record-High Stock Prices

Mar 10, 2024 4 min read paid

The UK and Japan are in recessions. Germany is on the edge of falling into a recession. China’s property bubble has burst, which is depressing the overall economy and weighing on other Asian economies. The weakness in the global economy is evident in commodity prices. The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Price index is down 31% from its March 8, 2022 peak (Fig. 1 below). The CRB raw

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Front-Cover Curse Already?

Mar 10, 2024 2 min read paid

The front cover of this week's Barron's shows the horns of a bull apparently charging through a big white sheet of paper. Only the horns are visible in the picture. Usually a bull appearing on the front cover of a major financial magazine rings alarm bells for contrarians, who view such events as major sell signals. However, the editors of Barron's might have dodged

Ed Yardeni

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