Bond Vigilantes

Warsh's Sintra Serenade To The Bond Vigilantes

Jul 1, 2026 4 min read paid

The temperature was 81 degrees in Sintra, Portugal, today. Tomorrow it will be 101 degrees. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke on a panel in Sintra today. He was cool as a cucumber. This was his second public appearance since his first press conference as the new Fed chair on June 17. Back then, he was surprisingly hawkish, stressing that he and his colleagues on the FOMC are committed to restoring

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

May 27, 2026 5 min read paid

The bull case for the stock market remains intact. The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today. The economy and the labor market remain resilient. Consumers are spending. The AI boom is boosting capital spending. Corporate earnings are soaring on strong revenues growth and higher profit margins. The odds of a recession in 2026 fell to 19% today, the lowest reading of the year (chart). Stock

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Don't Freak Out About The Bond Vigilantes Just Yet

May 19, 2026 4 min read paid

The selloff in the US Treasury bond market continued today. The 30-year yield hit a high of 5.19%, its highest level since July 2007. The 10-year yield surged to 4.69%, its highest since January 2025 (chart). Just as unsettling as these levels is how quickly yields have risen over the past few days. We think that happened in response to last week's hotter-than-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Troubles In Tokyo & Nuuk Hit Stocks & Bonds

Jan 20, 2026 3 min read paid

What do Tokyo and Nuuk have in common? They are the capital cities of Japan and Greenland. They are the two epicenters of the shocks that hit stock and bond markets worldwide today. In Tokyo, bond yields are soaring, suggesting that a debt crisis may be underway. In Nuuk, the locals are siding with Denmark in their opposition to President Donald Trump's plan to acquire Greenland "one

Ed Yardeni

Fed Easing Fails To Ease Bond Yields

Dec 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Have you heard? The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%. That would be a 175bps cut in the FFR since the Fed started its latest monetary easing cycle in September of last year. In his October press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "Now we’re

Ed Yardeni

Is A US Government Debt Crisis Imminent?

May 21, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock investors have been less "tarrified" about President Donald Trump's tariffs since April 9, when he postponed most of his proposed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days (chart). However, they may now be getting spooked that the bond market might be on the verge of a debt crisis, especially after Moody's downgraded US government debt on Friday and Japanese bond yields soared in recent days.

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes Hit Another Homerun

Apr 9, 2025 3 min read paid

"Bond investors are the economy's bond vigilantes. ... So if the fiscal and monetary authorities won’t regulate the economy, the bond investors will. The economy will be run by vigilantes in the credit markets.” – Ed Yardeni, 1983 "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Vigilantes On The Warpath

Mar 10, 2025 3 min read paid

The Stock Market Vigilantes have spoken. They don't like tariffs, and they don't like mass firings of federal workers. That's because they don't like stagflation, and they fear that Trump 2.0's focus on these measures could cause a recession with higher inflation. They really didn't like President Donald Trump's message on Sunday during an interview

Ed Yardeni

A Bond Vigilante In Trump's Court

Feb 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump 2.0 is borrowing a page from the Clinton administration's playbook, specifically the one in which Robert Rubin and James Carville warned Clinton that he had to respect the power of the Bond Vigilantes and maintain fiscal discipline. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday said that he and President Trump are less concerned with the federal funds rate (FFR) and instead are hoping to contain the 10-

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes Put 5% Yield In Crosshairs

Jan 7, 2025 3 min read paid

The US economy continues to roar. December's ISM purchasing managers survey showed that services activity remains strong. The JOLTS data, albeit a bit stale from November, showed job openings jumped. That aligned with the recent rise in measures of business and consumer confidence. So why did stocks turn lower today? The answer lies with the bond market. The prices-paid index in the ISM nonmanufacturing PMI jumped from

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Crosscurrents & Riptides

Dec 29, 2024 3 min read paid

January could start the year off with some volatility in the bond and stock markets. There are lots of fundamental and technical crosscurrents and a few possible riptides. The Q4 earnings reporting season during January should show a solid increase in S&P 500 operating earnings per share of at least 8.5% y/y (chart). We expect closer to a 10.0% increase since positive earnings surprises regularly

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes Pushing Back Against Reckless Monetary & Fiscal Policies

Dec 28, 2024 3 min read paid

The 10-year Treasury bond yield is up 100bps since the Fed started lowering the federal funds rate (FFR) by 100bps on September 18 (chart). Even the 2-year Treasury yield is up about 75bps. We warned about this happening back in August. The Bond Vigilantes are sending a loud warning message. They aren't convinced Donald Trump, the new sheriff coming to town, will maintain fiscal law and

Ed Yardeni

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