Consumer

No News Is Good News

Sep 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Dr. Ed was interviewed on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning at 7 a.m (see link below). Ace journalist Lisa Abramowitcz noted that during the summer, we were saying that the economy is resilient and doesn't need much monetary stimulus, which might cause a meltup in stock prices. Now we are saying that if the Fed cuts the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps instead of 25bps on September

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Claims Will Tell

Aug 7, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Giving Credit To The Consumer

Jul 8, 2024 2 min read paid

The strength of the US consumer has underpinned much of the current bull market in stocks. In recent months, rising real disposable income (DPI) has fueled consumer spending even as the excess saving accumulated during the pandemic was depleted. Debt service payments have remained below 10% of nominal DPI from Q1-2020 through Q4- 2023. That's relatively low because many households cleaned up their balance sheets following the Great

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Confidence Survey Shows Jobs Are Still Relatively Plentiful

Jun 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The first available monthly indicator of the labor market is the "jobs plentiful" series in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey. Today, June's reading showed that 38.1% of respondents said so (chart). That's a slight uptick from May, and a relatively high reading. The "jobs hard to get response" ticked down to 14.1%, which is a very low reading. The

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Inflation's Puzzle Pieces Painting Bullish Picture

May 15, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to a new record high of 5308.15 following today's economic numbers. It could easily reach our yearend target of 5400 well ahead of schedule! For now, we are sticking with this target, as well as 6000 for 2025 and 6500 for 2026. That's consistent with our Roaring 2020s scenario (60% subjective probability). If the market continues its near-vertical ascent,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: May 6 - 10

May 5, 2024 2 min read

It's slim pickings this week on the US economic front. The news is mostly about credit conditions. Then again, earnings reporting season isn't over. And, we can always count on the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee to make headlines now that their blackout period is over. Here is what we can expect from this week's credit market indicators: (1) Q2's

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 15 - 19

Apr 14, 2024 2 min read paid

Following Iran's attack on Israel Saturday, geopolitics should dominate this week's market action. The Q1 earnings reporting season will also merit investors' attention. In addition, Fed officials are likely to chatter about whether any rate cuts are likely this year given last week's hotter-than-expected March CPI. And there are plenty of economic reports coming out this week. They are likely to show that

Ed Yardeni

Live Long And Prosper!

Apr 8, 2024 2 min read

American consumers are doing what they do best: They are consuming goods and services. Their consumption of services has been especially strong. So the demand for workers by several major services industries has been particularly strong. In turn, robust employment gains have boosted consumers’ purchasing power and spending. We have attributed some of these developments to the retiring Baby Boomer generation. This cohort is the richest generation of senior citizens

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Recoveries In Manufacturing & Retailing

Apr 1, 2024 2 min read paid

The rolling recessions in manufacturing and retailing are turning into rolling recoveries. That's our conclusion based on today's relatively solid manufacturing purchasing managers report for March. The M-PMI rose to 50.3, the first reading above 50.0 since September 2022 (chart). That was the beginning of the rolling recession that hit goods producers following the post-lockdown goods buying binge that started May 2020. The new

Ed Yardeni

It Was Cold In January, But Spring Is Coming!

Feb 15, 2024 2 min read

Retail sales fell 0.8% m/m in January, much weaker than expected (chart). Leading the way down was a 4.1% drop in building materials & garden equipment & supplies. Following the release of January's employment report, we anticipated some weakness in retail sales because the 0.2% increase in payrolls was offset by an odd 0.6% drop in average weekly hours (chart). Also weak during

Ed Yardeni

What Is Powell Thinking?

Jan 17, 2024 3 min read paid

This question was partially answered yesterday in a speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller: "This cycle, however, with economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2 percent, I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past. The healthy state of the economy provides the flexibility to lower the (nominal) policy rate to keep the real

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 18 - 22

Dec 17, 2023 2 min read paid

On Wednesday, at his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish. So bond and stock prices continued to rally on expectations that the Fed might cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 by 75bps in total. On Friday, NY Fed President John Williams pushed back by saying, "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now." More Fed officials will weigh in on

Ed Yardeni

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