Consumer

Still Betting on US Consumers

Dec 17, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer spending rose again in November, with real retail sales rising more than 3.0% y/y (chart). Rising real labor and nonlabor incomes, plus a strong wealth effect from record highs in stock and home prices, have boosted spending for the past two years. The GOP election sweep also means the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will likely be extended in full, and there's talk in

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Super Macro. Not So Super Micro.

Oct 31, 2024 3 min read paid

Some of the air is coming out of the AI trade. Super Micro Computer hasn't been super recently. It fell 12% today after auditor Ernst & Young resigned due to inaccurate financial reporting, and is now down 66% over the past six months (chart). Super Micro Computer is a key vendor for building out Nvidia-based clusters of servers used for training and deploying AI models Meta and Microsoft

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

When American Consumers Are Depressed, They Go Shopping

Sep 25, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer confidence has been relatively depressed for the past couple of years according to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which are based on surveys conducted by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The Consumer Optimism Index, which we calculate as the average of the CCI and CSI remains down and out (chart). The CCI tends to be more sensitive to employment, while the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

No News Is Good News

Sep 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Dr. Ed was interviewed on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning at 7 a.m (see link below). Ace journalist Lisa Abramowitcz noted that during the summer, we were saying that the economy is resilient and doesn't need much monetary stimulus, which might cause a meltup in stock prices. Now we are saying that if the Fed cuts the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps instead of 25bps on September

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Claims Will Tell

Aug 7, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Giving Credit To The Consumer

Jul 8, 2024 2 min read paid

The strength of the US consumer has underpinned much of the current bull market in stocks. In recent months, rising real disposable income (DPI) has fueled consumer spending even as the excess saving accumulated during the pandemic was depleted. Debt service payments have remained below 10% of nominal DPI from Q1-2020 through Q4- 2023. That's relatively low because many households cleaned up their balance sheets following the Great

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Confidence Survey Shows Jobs Are Still Relatively Plentiful

Jun 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The first available monthly indicator of the labor market is the "jobs plentiful" series in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey. Today, June's reading showed that 38.1% of respondents said so (chart). That's a slight uptick from May, and a relatively high reading. The "jobs hard to get response" ticked down to 14.1%, which is a very low reading. The

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Inflation's Puzzle Pieces Painting Bullish Picture

May 15, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to a new record high of 5308.15 following today's economic numbers. It could easily reach our yearend target of 5400 well ahead of schedule! For now, we are sticking with this target, as well as 6000 for 2025 and 6500 for 2026. That's consistent with our Roaring 2020s scenario (60% subjective probability). If the market continues its near-vertical ascent,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: May 6 - 10

May 5, 2024 2 min read

It's slim pickings this week on the US economic front. The news is mostly about credit conditions. Then again, earnings reporting season isn't over. And, we can always count on the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee to make headlines now that their blackout period is over. Here is what we can expect from this week's credit market indicators: (1) Q2's

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 15 - 19

Apr 14, 2024 2 min read paid

Following Iran's attack on Israel Saturday, geopolitics should dominate this week's market action. The Q1 earnings reporting season will also merit investors' attention. In addition, Fed officials are likely to chatter about whether any rate cuts are likely this year given last week's hotter-than-expected March CPI. And there are plenty of economic reports coming out this week. They are likely to show that

Ed Yardeni

Live Long And Prosper!

Apr 8, 2024 2 min read

American consumers are doing what they do best: They are consuming goods and services. Their consumption of services has been especially strong. So the demand for workers by several major services industries has been particularly strong. In turn, robust employment gains have boosted consumers’ purchasing power and spending. We have attributed some of these developments to the retiring Baby Boomer generation. This cohort is the richest generation of senior citizens

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Recoveries In Manufacturing & Retailing

Apr 1, 2024 2 min read paid

The rolling recessions in manufacturing and retailing are turning into rolling recoveries. That's our conclusion based on today's relatively solid manufacturing purchasing managers report for March. The M-PMI rose to 50.3, the first reading above 50.0 since September 2022 (chart). That was the beginning of the rolling recession that hit goods producers following the post-lockdown goods buying binge that started May 2020. The new

Ed Yardeni

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